ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

IF this is declared a TD by 55W and if it later hits the CONUS, this would then become the only TC on record that hit the Conus after forming east of 55W after 9/25.

I'm not entirely sure on the accuracy of this claim. I mean, I know that it's true based on historic records, but I'd be willing to bet that some of those land-falling storms would've been classified east of 55W if we had the same technology we do today. And anyway, I generally dislike broad statements like that, because they're just too generalizing of something as complex as the atmosphere. Basically, I don't think it really matters if it forms east or west of 55W after such and such date, but I still think it'll be interesting to see if it does break that "record."

Not sure when the 1938 storm formed (it hit at the end of September iirc) but I think Hazel qualifies.

The 1938 storm formed well before 9/25. Hazel formed after 9/25 but the official track's formation location was west of 55W. Could it have really formed east of 55W? That's entirely possibly considering it was already at 70 mph at the first track point.

[wxman57]

We have some building work going on at my Mother in Laws house in Grenada....
I gather as the centre appears to be slightly more north than Grenada's lattitude that they will be in the clear?

Well in the clear with regards the worst of any weather.

Correct. No tropical storm conditions in Grenada. All TS winds will be north of the track - well north of Grenada.

[chaser1]

Honestly, I"m not seeing that bad of a consensus of overall track forecast between most globals and the GFS, other than the obvious distinction in forward speed. That alone would have huge implications towards later term track and impacts. Furthermore, its not nearly as clear cut as waiting for GFS to come west and more inline with the other globals given that we may see a good deal of a futher west shift by all of them. One thing for sure, were cerntainly not seeing an unexpected level of faster development that would possibly throw a monkey wrench into things and perhaps cause a faster turn to the N.W. Moderate southwesterly shear seems to be keeping quick development in check. Sure glad to get recon into the system, but will be hoping for some future G-IV Gulfstream flights for ingestion of added atmospheric data and improved model output.

[RL3AO]

GFS maybe backing off a little bit in the first 36 hours. Weaker in the short term could cause more issues later for CONUS.

[sma10]

FWIW JB's forecast is essential the 00z Euro ensemble mean takes a cat 4 into the Gulf with a turn towards the north central gulf coast. He's typically overly bullish but wow.

Really not to be too snarky, but I've been hearing about Bastardi's forecasts for 15+ years, and he is wrong an awful lot.

[RL3AO]

FWIW JB's forecast is essential the 00z Euro ensemble mean takes a cat 4 into the Gulf with a turn towards the north central gulf coast. He's typically overly bullish but wow.

Really not to be too snarky, but I've been hearing about Bastardi's forecasts for 15+ years, and he is wrong an awful lot.

That's what happens when you are a long range forecaster.

[KWT]

Honestly, I"m not seeing that bad of a consensus of overall track forecast between most globals and the GFS, other than the obvious distinction in forward speed. That alone would have huge implications towards later term track and impacts. Furthermore, its not nearly as clear cut as waiting for GFS to come west and more inline with the other globals given that we may see a good deal of a futher west shift by all of them. One thing for sure, were cerntainly not seeing an unexpected level of faster development that would possibly throw a monkey wrench into things and perhaps cause a faster turn to the N.W. Moderate southwesterly shear seems to be keeping quick development in check. Sure glad to get recon into the system, but will be hoping for some future G-IV Gulfstream flights for ingestion of added atmospheric data and improved model output.

The basics of the track upto 144hrs are actually quite similar. Either W/WSW for first 72hrs, slow down, then eventual bend to the NNW/N. The differences are the forward speed, how far north it gets and actually how far WSW this dives.

[leanne_uk]

Thank you

We have some building work going on at my Mother in Laws house in Grenada....
I gather as the centre appears to be slightly more north than Grenada's lattitude that they will be in the clear?

Well in the clear with regards the worst of any weather.

Correct. No tropical storm conditions in Grenada. All TS winds will be north of the track - well north of Grenada.

[stormreader]

Stating the obvious, but its very, very, close to depression stage now.

[stormreader]

FWIW JB's forecast is essential the 00z Euro ensemble mean takes a cat 4 into the Gulf with a turn towards the north central gulf coast. He's typically overly bullish but wow.

Really not to be too snarky, but I've been hearing about Bastardi's forecasts for 15+ years, and he is wrong an awful lot.

That's what happens when you are a long range forecaster.

Guess I'm in trouble now (agreeing with JB), but thats what I've been thinking for a couple of days. Thinking well out into the central GOM.

[JaxGator]

FWIW JB's forecast is essential the 00z Euro ensemble mean takes a cat 4 into the Gulf with a turn towards the north central gulf coast. He's typically overly bullish but wow.

Really not to be too snarky, but I've been hearing about Bastardi's forecasts for 15+ years, and he is wrong an awful lot.

Nobody is going to be correct all the time and same with Joe. Though Joe was right on Julia in terms of track and the chance of strengthening on approach to Florida. I'm not going to predict on where 97L/Matthew to be is going as it could do whatever despite model trends and the complex weather pattern shaping up but regardless, nobody should have their guard down.

[CourierPR]

Really not to be too snarky, but I've been hearing about Bastardi's forecasts for 15+ years, and he is wrong an awful lot.

That's what happens when you are a long range forecaster.

Guess I'm in trouble now (agreeing with JB), but thats what I've been thinking for a couple of days. Thinking well out into the central GOM.

Well, last weekend he had the system off shore going up the Eastern Seaboard.

[Steve]

maybe stormreader, but I think better chances at Florida or the Gulf Coast, then Bahamas or an NC or Northeast solution, then out to sea. I would caution that he did have Lili progged pretty good (and Isaac as well, though Isaac's models were in agreement for several days heading toward landfall). Those were storms that came into the Gulf and moved North. He was a little West of where Lili came in (57 or one of the pro-mets on here at the time was a little east if I'm not mistaken). He gets those patterns right a lot, but he sticks to his guns too long when he's wrong. But that's the way he usually handles things. He doesn't have an endgame as far as I can tell but I don't subscribe to their service - just into the Gulf before a N turn.

[Bailey1777]

Off subject but does anyone know where Arik Dunn has been? I like his takes on here.

[cycloneye]

They are all in for this system.

 https://twitter.com/ChrisLandsea/status/780804020432691200

[SeGaBob]

Looked better last night....no convection on the south side now. Wouldn't be surprised if it got upgraded though...

[TimeZone]

It's going to kill itself over Cuba if it gets trapped there too long.

Flora maintained hurricane intensity while meandering over Cuba for 4 days.

I wouldn't count on that happening again.

[Blown Away]

Looks Like A Healthy Invest ATM...

[psyclone]

our system is looking good today. It might be just me but it seems to be consolidating a bit more to the north. In any case...I can't wait to see the first 5 day from the NHC which I fully expect later today.

[Hurricaneman]

Looked better last night....no convection on the south side now. Wouldn't be surprised if it got upgraded though...

I can see its working on that now though, SE side has convection now if the SW side gets convection this is all systems go