Possible Storm for South Florida and keys

[John]

Satellite images and RAOB observations indicate that the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is becoming much better organized, the cloud pattern associated with this disturbed area continues to improve, this strongly suggests to me a tropical depression is forming. The area of showers and squalls covers a large area of the Western Caribbean, Conventional tools also indicate that a Depression may be forming and could reach Storm status in about 36H. The environment is forecast to be favorable for some strengthening. Very important is the fact there is a warm upper oceanic mixed layer ahead of this developing system, this tells me there is plenty of potential or room for marked strengthening, developing systems in this tropical genesis this time of year have the potential to really bomb out, not saying this is the case here but it needs to be watched. All interests in Florida... especially South Florida and the Keys should closely Monitor this developing Tropical system. More later
John

[wxman57]

I agree, mostly. But if the latest GFS is right, and it goes along with what I've been thinking, then this system has just 48 hours to go before it hits teh lower peninsula. As it moves north into the Gulf late Saturday, it'll encounter increasing westerly mid to upper-level flow. That SHOULD drive it quickly east across south Florida, crossing the lower peninsula Sunday evening. So there won't be too much time for it to become very strong. Maybe a weak TS with 40-50kt winds.

[Aquawind]

TBW Discussion on the RAIN...

.EXTENDED...(MON-FRI)...BIG QUESTION FOR EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHAT...IF
ANYTHING BECOMES OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN.
BOTH MESOETA AND GFS DEPICT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY 00Z MONDAY WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING TO FT MYERS-VERO
BEACH LINE. GFS BY 18Z DEPICTS INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AS DISTURBANCE CROSSES YUCATAN WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH BECOMING INVOLVED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT
THIS TIME...I DON'T SEE ANY REASON TO BELIEVE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE THAT PRONOUNCED SOUTH OF THE TROUGH/FRONT AND WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEATING COULD CERTAINLY LEAD
TO SCATTERED POPS OVER LEE AND CHARLOTTE AND HAVE DEPICTED HIGHER
POPS THERE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WHATEVER CROSSES YUCATAN EITHER
SHEARS OUT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OR GETS SHEARED
ENOUGH SO LOW-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES WESTWARD INTO GULF OF MEXICO.
SCT POPS PROBABLE ACROSS LEE AND CHARLOTTE AGAIN WITH ISOLATED OVER
CENTRAL AND DRY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT DRY AIR TO MAKE IT THROUGH ALL ZONES
WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING
ISOLATED POPS. DRY AIR SHOULD HANG IN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AGAIN ONLY ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED.

[Rainband]

The models are really wishy washy about this system.. I hope it hits south florida because we don't need the rain. I will feel better when there is more model consensus!!

[HurricaneQueen]

We don't need it either in SW Fl. We had between 2 and 5 inches of rain overnight last night and a wet weekend is predicted prior to the potential arrival of the tropical system. We are now 6 inches above normal for the month of September and also for year to date.

[Rainband]

We don't need it either in SW Fl. We had between 2 and 5 inches of rain overnight last night and a wet weekend is predicted prior to the potential arrival of the tropical system. We are now 6 inches above normal for the month of September and also for year to date.

Sorry I wasn't trying to be insensitive.. I apologize.. It's too early to know here and if it will go anyway..so lets watch and wait..once there is a low level center it will be easier to intialize

[dixiebreeze]

I know what you mean, Lynn. We had a couple more inches yesterday here in W.C. Fla. and more to come over the weekend. I sure don't hear anyone worrying about the aquifer these days

[WeatherEmperor]

True that. We still have a few days to watch this. I just dont hope that it will become any stronger then a tropical storm.

[HurricaneQueen]

Rainband:

Absolutely, no need to apologize. I was just pointing out that there are a lot of us in the same boat (or should I say may need the same boat-like an Ark?)

I'd be quite content to have three fish this time around to give us all some time to dry out. My son lives in Tampa quite close to the Bay so I certainly don't want anything crossing the state up in your area either.

Guess we'll all have to wait and see. Tonight might be a good night to get some sleep as we Floridians no doubt will be glued here the next couple of days!

[tracyb1008]

We don't need it either in SW Fl. We had between 2 and 5 inches of rain overnight last night and a wet weekend is predicted prior to the potential arrival of the tropical system. We are now 6 inches above normal for the month of September and also for year to date.

Agreed! WE do not need the rain. Here in S. Ft. Myers we are looking at standing water as it is!