ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Frank2
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#461 Postby Frank2 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:01 pm

The MLC or LLC appears to be at 13.7 53.0 - and appears to be moving WNW. No doubt this will affect the spaghetti computes if it is verified by recon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#462 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:02 pm

Frank2 wrote:The MLC or LLC appears to be at 13.7 53.0 - and appears to be moving WNW. No doubt this will affect the spaghetti computes if it is verified by recon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


The LLC is about 1degree south of the MLC at 12.8N which indicates some southerly shear
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#463 Postby Frank2 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:07 pm

Yes, true, not sure how far west that extends, but that can be a equalizer if it continues...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#464 Postby Medtronic15 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:08 pm

Frank2 wrote:The MLC or LLC appears to be at 13.7 53.0 - and appears to be moving WNW. No doubt this will affect the spaghetti computes if it is verified by recon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


Agree!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#465 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:10 pm

This is starting to enter high wind shear, the winds -west- of the convection are out of the south so any formative center is under that mass of southerly winds. Once again it's looking like the models have overblown things, and it wouldn't surprise me as with Karl if this either never reaches hurricane intensity or if it does, barely. I expect a major reduction in intensity forecasts once data from the recon mission enters the models.
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TimeZone

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#466 Postby TimeZone » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:11 pm

Not looking as good as I was expecting it would today. Starting to wonder if we may have another Hermine on our hands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#467 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:19 pm

Not sure what you all are looking at, I don't see any strong negative shear yet. Anti-cyclone still appears to be in a favorable position.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-54&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#468 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:20 pm

Looks like a hot tower fired off at approx 12.5N 52W and is now leaving cirrus remnant.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#469 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:24 pm

tolakram wrote:Not sure what you all are looking at, I don't see any strong negative shear yet. Anti-cyclone still appears to be in a favorable position.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-54&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

I thought shear was to be no more than 15 it's at the worst right now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#470 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:25 pm

TimeZone wrote:Not looking as good as I was expecting it would today. Starting to wonder if we may have another Hermine on our hands.

It was forecast to get a bit weaker before it picked back up again on the other side of the Windwards I believe.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#471 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:26 pm

hammy dont like hurr so all system will go shear or don't form we hope hammy right but hammy like shear what i see most hammy post talk about high shear not going form but hammy got right say what hammy mind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#472 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:27 pm

Hammy wrote:This is starting to enter high wind shear, the winds -west- of the convection are out of the south so any formative center is under that mass of southerly winds. Once again it's looking like the models have overblown things, and it wouldn't surprise me as with Karl if this either never reaches hurricane intensity or if it does, barely. I expect a major reduction in intensity forecasts once data from the recon mission enters the models.


Tell us how you really feel. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#473 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:30 pm

one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#474 Postby srva80 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:34 pm

Alyono wrote:one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery


Whoa!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#475 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:40 pm

Alyono wrote:one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery

That's pretty bold.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#476 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:44 pm

I have a feeling the Mid-Atlantic between NC and VA are likely landfall points when all is said and done.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#477 Postby CourierPR » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:45 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Alyono wrote:one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery

That's pretty bold.


Boldness reigns today as folks who were all in for a significant west model shift are suddenly all in for a significant east shift. Wow!
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SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#478 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:47 pm

:uarrow: I've had the same message all along... east of Bermuda. If i am wrong then so be it...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#479 Postby centuryv58 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:49 pm

CourierPR wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
Alyono wrote:one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery

That's pretty bold.


Boldness reigns today as folks who were all in for a significant west model shift are suddenly all in for a significant east shift. Wow!


I'd like to see some significant shift--in some direction-- but none yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#480 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:49 pm

psyclone wrote:our system is looking good today. It might be just me but it seems to be consolidating a bit more to the north. In any case...I can't wait to see the first 5 day from the NHC which I fully expect later today.


Don't expect any surprises, revelations in a 5-day track. They'll take the storm west for 4-5 days, to north of Venezuela at day 5. It's the 6-10 day track that's uncertain.

Recon appears to be having trouble finding a center. They did just find some SW winds but not where they were expecting, apparently.
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