ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

our system is looking good today. It might be just me but it seems to be consolidating a bit more to the north. In any case...I can't wait to see the first 5 day from the NHC which I fully expect later today.

Don't expect any surprises, revelations in a 5-day track. They'll take the storm west for 4-5 days, to north of Venezuela at day 5. It's the 6-10 day track that's uncertain.

Recon appears to be having trouble finding a center. They did just find some SW winds but not where they were expecting, apparently.

As I've said the last hour it's at 12.7 or 12.8N

[alienstorm]

12.550N 54.150W axis winds going from NE to SE, no LLC

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 350 miles east of Barbados continue to show signs of
organization. Buoy data indicate that the system is producing winds
to near tropical storm force, and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is just beginning its mission to determine
if the system has a closed circulation. Environmental conditions
appear to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. This
system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and
is expected to pass over the Windward Islands on Wednesday morning,
and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea late Wednesday and
Thursday.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire,
Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult
products issued by your national meteorological service, which
could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of
whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy
rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to
spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern
Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent ...

Forecaster Brown

[p1nheadlarry]

Not sure what you all are looking at, I don't see any strong negative shear yet. Anti-cyclone still appears to be in a favorable position.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-54&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

I thought shear was to be no more than 15 it's at the worst right now?

I've heard that before.

[CrazyC83]

If a closed circulation is found, would a Hurricane Watch be necessary for the southern Windwards? or would a Tropical Storm Warning be sufficient?

[wxmann_91]

one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery

C'mon, you can't say that. All it needs to do is stall over Venezuela and then bounce north to Hispaniola for it to run out of time to attain Cat 4/5 status.

[RL3AO]

I'm on the same boat. I'd be pretty surprised if this didn't become a cat 4. The higher shear on the maps is mostly the outflow of the system on the north side. And to the west the southerly winds off south America are weakening.

[abajan]

Severe Weather Update from Barbados Met Office.

[terstorm1012]

I too agree with Alyono. This could wrap up and deepen pretty quickly once it gets its act together north of Venezuela and the ocean certainly does support an intense hurricane and we've seen that kind of RI before, many times all over the world. What happens after that is the big uncertainty.

I'm watching the cut-off low forecasted to develop over the east later this week with a close eye, and if anything comes after that low when that low lifts out sometime over the weekend. This is a pretty complex synoptic pattern in the long run. A Hazel-esque track is both exhilarating and terrifying, so I'm on my guard, as we all should be.

[SouthernBreeze]

And if/when a RI occurs will be when it shoots up to the north?

Just a personal comment, NOT official forecast !

[abajan]

You guys can listen to one of our radio stations here:
http://tunein.com/radio/Voice-Of-Barbad ... 29-s16653/

(An update from our emergency department is due to be aired shortly.)

[KWT]

Providing it doesn't dive too much to the WSW and it doesn't instantly turn north the set-up aloft looks favourable and so a strong hurricane is likely. IMO at the moment I'd go with the 110-120kts type range (unless it gets west of 80W, then all bets off the table).

Still there are quite a few uncertainties, but a strong hurricane looks a good bet, as does sadly a strong landfalling hurricane somewhere in the Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 97L...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/1745 UTC 12.4N 53.1W T2.0/2.0 97L
27/1145 UTC 12.4N 52.0W T1.5/1.5 97L
27/0545 UTC 11.5N 50.6W T1.0/1.0 97L
26/2345 UTC 11.2N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 97L
26/1745 UTC 10.2N 48.3W T1.0/1.0

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092718, , BEST, 0, 130N, 545W, 30, 1008, DB

[wxman57]

Doesn't matter what Dvorak says now that we have recon. Recon reports suggest a possible broad, weak center SOUTH of 12N and west of 55W. Nothing that would qualify as a TD, though. They need to look a good bit NE where that stronger rotation is located.

[wxman57]

18z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092718, , BEST, 0, 130N, 545W, 30, 1008, DB

It's definitely not there at 18Z, according to recon.

[TimeZone]

Recon indicating that 97L is an absolute mess.

[jlauderdal]

You guys can listen to one of our radio stations here:
http://tunein.com/radio/Voice-Of-Barbad ... 29-s16653/

(An update from our emergency department is due to be aired shortly.)

listening to the broadcast...if you need supplies please head to the peoples market...plenty of supplies there

[KWT]

Certainly nothing too interesting on recon!

Then again most models don't do much with this for another 24-48hrs until its in the E.Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

Certainly nothing too interesting on recon!

Then again most models don't do much with this for another 24-48hrs until its in the E.Caribbean.

The Euro could be onto something keeping this relatively weak through the Eastern Caribbean.