ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SeGaBob]

ivanhater some people don't understand that, 10 days out heck this won't be consistent till 4-5 days out

Maybe not even that

[TheStormExpert]

Joe Bastardi's thoughts.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/780848255257104384




 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/780848476837912580

[TheStormExpert]

By the way what time do the Euro Ensembles come out?

[PTrackerLA]

By the way what time do the Euro Ensembles come out?

Usually out to at least day 10 by 4:30pm Eastern

[OntarioEggplant]

Remember the long-range model forecasts for Hermine. It never made landfall in TX or Louisiana as a major hurricane...

It also didn't go out to sea like the GFS enjoyed showing.

[chaser1]

Weather stuff, LOL! Ya gotta love it

"Coming to an island or city near you, its........ 930mb!!" Stay tuned for our NEXT episode where we'll once again spin the wheel and see where Invest 97L could slam ashore! Bar Harbor Maine? Cozumel Mexico?? Stay tuned and see.

[jason1912]

Joe Bastardi's thoughts.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/780848255257104384




 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/780848476837912580

Same guy who said that Hermine would be another ash-Wednesday storm for the mid-Atlantic lol

[gatorcane]

Wow:
https://s22.postimg.org/62d1keywx/ecmwf ... eus_11.png

Reminder: We had a similar south Florida forecast for "Hermine" - in that case it was a 120 hour forecast that never came close to verifying. In all likelihood, this run will be forgotten in a few days as the track begins to shift.

Yep the Euro blew it big-time with Hermine, probably one of the biggest forecast busts that I can remember from that normally reliable model. The chances of the actual track ending up just like the 12Z Euro is slim since how often do 10-day forecasts (let alone 5-day as you point out) actually verify? No doubt shifts are on the way I would think.

[meriland23]

So I wonder if the EURO or GFS seems to be the more improbable one in terms or direction. I see that there is a relatively large area of uncertainty above venezuela, and that a treck faster and further west will favor EURO's outcome if not the carribean, but if it is slower, north, and east, then it will follow GFS and go fish.

[SouthFloridawx]

Why can't I ever see the Twitter comments. It just says loading tweets?

[sma10]

Wow:
https://s22.postimg.org/62d1keywx/ecmwf ... eus_11.png

Reminder: We had a similar south Florida forecast for "Hermine" - in that case it was a 120 hour forecast that never came close to verifying. In all likelihood, this run will be forgotten in a few days as the track begins to shift.

Yep the Euro blew it big-time with Hermine, probably one of the biggest forecast busts that I can remember from that normally reliable model. The chances of the actual track ending up just like the 12Z Euro is slim since how often do 10-day forecasts (let alone 5-day as you point out) actually verify? No doubt shifts are on the way I would think.

All true, true, true. If I had a dollar for every time a model storm has buried Miami.

It is funny how we just take for granted that a 10 day position is a guarantee miss.

I am curious where the miss will ultimately be though ...

[ronjon]

12z GFS ensemble run centered on S FL at 174 hrs. Really noticing the storm forward speed difference between GFS and Euro.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016092712&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=0

[srva80]

Why can't I ever see the Twitter comments. It just says loading tweets?

I cant either. I think its because my work has twitter blocked. It would awesome if you could post as text

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm on my personal browser and twitter is definitely not blocked.

Why can't I ever see the Twitter comments. It just says loading tweets?

I cant either. I think its because my work has twitter blocked. It would awesome if you could post as text

[psyclone]

If I had a dime for every apocalyptic model run...I'd be dead. Seriously. ..Hermine was over me as a Wipeout storm on multiple occasions. 97L has aalready killed me once on a model run. A sense of perspective is important here. 2 scoops.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm on my personal browser and twitter is definitely not blocked.

Why can't I ever see the Twitter comments. It just says loading tweets?

I cant either. I think its because my work has twitter blocked. It would awesome if you could post as text

If you have an ad blocker, that might be why (or in private browsing mode)

[TimeZone]

Gotta love the Euro taking this thing directly over the high mountains of Cuba for an extended period of time, and still having it come out as a major Cane.

I remember Georges taking Puerto Rico, the DR, Haiti and most of Cuba and emerging as a hurricane. I think these big storms with great upper level support can survive even mountainous land masses better.

Georges was an exception. I wouldn't count on this thing not taking a severe beating passing over those mountains.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If I had a dime for every apocalyptic model run...I'd be dead. Seriously. ..Hermine was over me as a Wipeout storm on multiple occasions. 97L has aalready killed me once on a model run. A sense of perspective is important here. 2 scoops.

Death by Dimes...hmmm sounds long and painful

[HURRICANELONNY]

Amen psyclone. Models mean nada. Mind as well buy new wiper blades cause they keep going back and forth. Once a center is formed and Matthew is born. I'll take notice.

[jlauderdal]

If I had a dime for every apocalyptic model run...I'd be dead. Seriously. ..Hermine was over me as a Wipeout storm on multiple occasions. 97L has aalready killed me once on a model run. A sense of perspective is important here. 2 scoops.

no doubt, we get hit by gfs model storms regularly, now euro has joined..i will get concerned if it shows us getting hit at 5 days or sooner..even being on the track at 5 days isnt a calamity