ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SFLcane]

Oh euro please...even the 18z guidance shifted eastward next run it will recurve eastward away from FL. It's already trending east conpared to its 00z run

[jlauderdal]

Oh euro please...even the 18z guidance shifted eastward next run it will recurve eastward away from FL. It's already trending east conpared to its 00z run

nobody in the united states should feel like they are off the hook or getting hit...the modeling just cant be trusted that far out..east of florida seems more likely than not at this point

[DESTRUCTION5]

Oh euro please...even the 18z guidance shifted eastward next run it will recurve eastward away from FL. It's already trending east conpared to its 00z run

Everytime I think of the euro and its history I think of Fay when it predicted it would cross FL and stall off Jax for 3 days before moving back west.in its 240 hr forecast.. We all laughed. ...Then it happened....

With that said...This year its been next to horrid. So lots of time and lots of window washing ahead.

[Ivanhater]

Trended east? Half the Gfs ensembles are in the Gulf and the Euro has it by south Florida in 10 days! Some people need to take a break and step back....nowhere near knowing where this is going

[emeraldislenc]

It looks like a Hazel track at times.

[gatorcane]

It's interesting there are now a few GFS ensembles very near where the Euro has this by day 10:

[rockyman]

12z GFS ensemble run centered on S FL at 174 hrs. Really noticing the storm forward speed difference between GFS and Euro.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016092712&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=0

I think that's the link to the Canadian Ensembles.

[CourierPR]

Trended east? Half the Gfs ensembles are in the Gulf and the Euro has it by south Florida in 10 days! Some people need to take a break and step back....nowhere near knowing where this is going

Well stated, Ivanhater. It is still too early in the game.

[ronjon]

12z GFS ensemble run centered on S FL at 174 hrs. Really noticing the storm forward speed difference between GFS and Euro.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016092712&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=0

I think that's the link to the Canadian Ensembles.

My bad - yes its the CMC ensembles.

[p1nheadlarry]

If I had a dime for every apocalyptic model run...I'd be dead. Seriously. ..Hermine was over me as a Wipeout storm on multiple occasions. 97L has aalready killed me once on a model run. A sense of perspective is important here. 2 scoops.

Last couple seasons I renamed the CMC the "Carolina Mega-Crusher," it wanted to wipe us off the map every other week.

[ronjon]

Jeff Masters blog today:

Long range forecast for 97L
A large upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and settle over the Mid-Atlantic states late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull 97L sharply to the north by the weekend, according to a majority of the Tuesday morning runs of the models. While the sharp right-hand turn in Figure 2 might look implausible, there are a number of cases of storms taking such a northward bend, especially in October, with the classic example being Hurricane Hazel (1954). This sharp turn is expected to occur on Friday night or on Saturday, and the exact timing of the turn has huge implications for who experiences the peak wrath of the storm. An earlier turn is being predicted by the GFS model, which would put the Dominican Republic and Haiti in the cross hairs for a direct hit early next week, with a long-range threat to the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast later in the week. The European model and UKMET model forecast a later turn, resulting in Jamaica and Cuba being more at risk of a direct strike early next week, and Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast being at risk later in the week. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 2), the uncertainties are high. 97L is expected to have favorable conditions for intensification this weekend as it heads north towards the islands, with low wind shear, very warm ocean waters, and a very moist atmosphere. The models are quite bullish on this storm being a hurricane when it makes its landfall early next week in the islands.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Only thing that makes sense is keeping it a tropical storm cause this year not much gets going. Models overdo too much

[SFLcane]

We all know this folks just overstating how horrific models have been this season.gfs wants a cat 3-4 into Haiti um yea right. We're this goes is anybody guess

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Only thing that makes sense is keeping it a tropical storm cause this year not much gets going. Models overdo too much

Maybe the difference is a positive MJO and the Kelvin wave?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Jeff Masters blog today:

Long range forecast for 97L
A large upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and settle over the Mid-Atlantic states late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull 97L sharply to the north by the weekend, according to a majority of the Tuesday morning runs of the models. While the sharp right-hand turn in Figure 2 might look implausible, there are a number of cases of storms taking such a northward bend, especially in October, with the classic example being Hurricane Hazel (1954). This sharp turn is expected to occur on Friday night or on Saturday, and the exact timing of the turn has huge implications for who experiences the peak wrath of the storm. An earlier turn is being predicted by the GFS model, which would put the Dominican Republic and Haiti in the cross hairs for a direct hit early next week, with a long-range threat to the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast later in the week. The European model and UKMET model forecast a later turn, resulting in Jamaica and Cuba being more at risk of a direct strike early next week, and Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast being at risk later in the week. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 2), the uncertainties are high. 97L is expected to have favorable conditions for intensification this weekend as it heads north towards the islands, with low wind shear, very warm ocean waters, and a very moist atmosphere. The models are quite bullish on this storm being a hurricane when it makes its landfall early next week in the islands.

Masters is spot on. The difference between the Euro and the GFS is that the Euro drives the storm further west and south then the GFS which keeps the storm in the south central Caribbean two days longer which allows the weakness pulling the storm north to fill in with a ridge at the end of the period. If the further SW progress verifies at 3-4 days then I say look out Florida, even on the west coast and in the panhandle as well as south Florida.

[tpr1967]

Jeff Masters blog today:

Long range forecast for 97L
A large upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and settle over the Mid-Atlantic states late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull 97L sharply to the north by the weekend, according to a majority of the Tuesday morning runs of the models. While the sharp right-hand turn in Figure 2 might look implausible, there are a number of cases of storms taking such a northward bend, especially in October, with the classic example being Hurricane Hazel (1954). This sharp turn is expected to occur on Friday night or on Saturday, and the exact timing of the turn has huge implications for who experiences the peak wrath of the storm. An earlier turn is being predicted by the GFS model, which would put the Dominican Republic and Haiti in the cross hairs for a direct hit early next week, with a long-range threat to the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast later in the week. The European model and UKMET model forecast a later turn, resulting in Jamaica and Cuba being more at risk of a direct strike early next week, and Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast being at risk later in the week. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 2), the uncertainties are high. 97L is expected to have favorable conditions for intensification this weekend as it heads north towards the islands, with low wind shear, very warm ocean waters, and a very moist atmosphere. The models are quite bullish on this storm being a hurricane when it makes its landfall early next week in the islands.

Masters is spot on. The difference between the Euro and the GFS is that the Euro drives the storm further west and south then the GFS which keeps the storm in the south central Caribbean two days longer which allows the weakness pulling the storm north to fill in with a ridge at the end of the period. If the further SW progress verifies at 3-4 days then I say look out Florida, even on the west coast and in the panhandle as well as south Florida.

If this system stays in Caribbean longer greater threat for ridge to build back in a drive storm farther west IMO. Etc. 12Z Euro 12Z JMA AND 00Z NASA Model runs.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/780821768307085313

[Blown Away]

Wow, I think it's been years since the Euro showed such a significant hurricane moving towards SFL... Pressure rapidly falling as it moves over the Gulfstream... Almost worst case scenario... Thank goodness that's 10 days and very likely to be something completely different... That is an unthinkable billion dollar storm track... Ugh

[gatorcane]

Well the Euro ensembles are not giving in to the GFS consistenly well east of Florida solution one bit. Actually looks like most of them are west of the ECMWF operational. Animation of the 12Z run just out below. Note don't take the actual pressure this is showing at face-value as these are ensemble runs.

[TheStormExpert]

18z Model Guidance:





12z GEFS Ensembles:



12z GEPS Ensembles: