ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1381 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:40 pm

Most Euro Ensembles in the Gulf
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1382 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:43 pm

Yikes at the Euro ensembles! :eek: Most in the Gulf and showing major hurricanes...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1383 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:47 pm

18Z NAM more south and west of 12Z run:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1384 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:53 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Yikes at the Euro ensembles! :eek: Most in the Gulf and showing major hurricanes...

How accurate are ensembles?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1385 Postby hurrtracker79 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:59 pm

12Z EURO control has Ivan all over again into the FL panhandle. Pressure 951mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1386 Postby OntarioEggplant » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:01 pm

So with the group of GFS ensembles in the Gulf now, plus the Euro op and Euro ensembles track... I feel like we can start leaning towards the slower Euro solution and the further west track
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1387 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:18z Model Guidance:

Image




12z GEFS Ensembles:

12z GEPS Ensembles:

Looks like models are shifting more towards Jamaica and Cuba now, seems like the west trend is continuing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1388 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:06 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:So with the group of GFS ensembles in the Gulf now, plus the Euro op and Euro ensembles track... I feel like we can start leaning towards the slower Euro solution and the further west track


Not a single MU ensemble is in the Gulf. The MU ensemble has a ZERO percent chance of this moving into the Gulf

Of course, that shows the MU ensemble improperly captures the range of possible outcomes
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1389 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:06 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:So with the group of GFS ensembles in the Gulf now, plus the Euro op and Euro ensembles track... I feel like we can start leaning towards the slower Euro solution and the further west track


It'll change in a few more model runs I bet. I'm still thinking a track up the eastern seaboard and NC/VA landfall.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1390 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:10 pm

The next few model runs are going to be Epic. We will find out if the Hype is Real
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1391 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:15 pm

12Z NASA model is WAY west out through 120 hours that the 12Z run goes out to with a turn to the NW or N that seems to happen at 120 hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1392 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:23 pm

18z Gfs rolls in less than 10 minutes folks. Get ready...


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1393 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:29 pm

Individual model runs are obviously fluctuating but it is clear that the trend is to go further west before any bend to the NW or N.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1394 Postby OntarioEggplant » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:30 pm

Alyono wrote:
OntarioEggplant wrote:So with the group of GFS ensembles in the Gulf now, plus the Euro op and Euro ensembles track... I feel like we can start leaning towards the slower Euro solution and the further west track


Not a single MU ensemble is in the Gulf. The MU ensemble has a ZERO percent chance of this moving into the Gulf

Of course, that shows the MU ensemble improperly captures the range of possible outcomes



What are you talking about? The 12Z ensembles clearly show some members pulling a Jeanne with the system and then moving it westward across FL into the GOM

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1395 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:32 pm

that's beyond 10 days. It is also one member. A 5% chance of moving into the Gulf beyond 10 days
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1396 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:33 pm

As for the Canadian ensembles, BE CAREFUL. The deterministic CMC forms a SECOND tropical storm in the Gulf. That signal may be contaminated by that possible genesis unless you use track specific plots

The actual 10 day probability of this moving into the Gulf (and it's only eastern Gulf) from the CMC is about 20-25%
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1397 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:40 pm

18Z GFS running.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1398 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:42 pm

General trend seems to be more north and weaker.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1399 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:45 pm

north and stronger so far through 54 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1400 Postby Big O » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:46 pm

Beyond Day 10, at least 5 members show 97L moving into western or southern GOM. This might explain one of the analog storms JB is looking at: Hurricane Inez (1966). While this is a low probability outcome, it is not out of the realm of possibility; however, this must be taken with a scoop of salt since it is beyond Day 10.
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