ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

north and stronger so far through 54 hours

Always stronger later, then as we get closer it trends weaker in the short term. Not buying it one bit.

[CourierPR]

Beyond Day 10, at least 5 members show 97L moving into western or southern GOM. This might explain one of the analog storms JB is looking at: Hurricane Inez (1966). While this is a low probability outcome, it is not out of the realm of possibility; however, this must be taken with a scoop of salt since it is beyond Day 10.

Inez stalled in The Bahamas then headed SW paralleling the Keys.

[OntarioEggplant]

500 mb ridge once again a bit stronger on 18Z run

[meriland23]

18z GFS running, taking a more westward treck @90 hours and not stalling yet.

[TheDreamTraveler]

18z GFS running, taking a more westward treck @90 hours and not stalling yet.

At 96 hours it's basically slowed down enough to consider it stalling and about to make a northern turn,

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Gfs not budging at all....


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[GeneratorPower]

The ridging to the northeast is far more pronounced than previous runs. The cutoff low is moving out fast.

[Alyono]

the MU is actually faster

and of course, even if that ridge is there, it will simply plow right through it

[pgoss11]

Making the northerly turn at 102 hours. Very persistent.

[jlauderdal]

the MU is actually faster

and of course, even if that ridge is there, it will simply plow right through it

just like with hermine

[meriland23]

The ridging to the northeast is far more pronounced than previous runs. The cutoff low is moving out fast.

Forgive me for being kind of new in terms of some things here but, what does that mean then?

[stormreader]

Well the Euro ensembles are not giving in to the GFS consistenly well east of Florida solution one bit. Actually looks like most of them are west of the ECMWF operational. Animation of the 12Z run just out below. Note don't take the actual pressure this is showing at face-value as these are ensemble runs.

Well those ensemble runs mirror my thinking. The first runs taken on this system several days ago showed a powerful hurricane in the W Carribean Sea. A basic NW track would bring it into the Yucatan Channel. And now, to see that several ensemble members still favor this original track gives me greater confidence in that outcome.

[Bocadude85]

18z Gfs not budging at all....


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Actually it seems to be moving NNW as opposed to due N on the 12Z...may miss Haiti to the west this time.

[toad strangler]

There is a W component to the GFS turn through 114. Not the near 90 degree sharp turn to nearly due N that we have been seeing on so many runs

[meriland23]

In comparison to the last runs, looking back and forth, they nudge it a bit westward now. Not a whole lot, but still only 120 hours out.

[meriland23]

It has shifted that on Oct 3rd at 06z, the center will be at EC Cuba. Last run had the center near Port Au Prince for the 3rd @ 06z.

[Alyono]

further west at 144 hours, but a HUGE escape path to the NE

[SouthFLTropics]

Little changes have big implications downstream. It may not appear so but I think this is a big change for the GFS on the 18z run!!!

[meriland23]

Little changes have big implications downstream. It may not appear so but I think this is a big change for the GFS on the 18z run!!!

Very true, trending westward or south, especially for this system in any measure makes a large change overall.

[meriland23]

@168 hours, still west of previous runs, trecking up north but slightly NNW. Gap between past models gradually widening.