ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS continues the ever so gradual westward trends from over the past few GFS runs.

The gap between the Euro and GFS is slowly closing. The timing is still a little different but the distance gap has definitely been closing with each new run.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the 00z Euro overnight trend even more eastward while the 00z GFS trends more westward.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 18z GFS continues the ever so gradual westward trends from over the past few GFS runs.

The Gfs must be thinking if it keeps making small westward adjustments it will eventually be near the Euro and nobody will have noticed lol


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[jlauderdal]

I hope for my boss's sake this misses the bahamas cuz he leaves friday to vacation there. Poor guy he deserves a vacation.

you just want the boss out of your grill...Bahamas definitely in play..several ways to get attacked, due north per the gfs or the euro goes farther west then bahamas gets nailed as it ejects out heading NE, two ways to win

[centuryv58]

The 18z GFS continues the ever so gradual westward trends from over the past few GFS runs.

The Gfs must be thinking if it keeps making small westward adjustments it will eventually be near the Euro and nobody will have noticed lol


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Maybe the GFS has just been wrong all along?

[OntarioEggplant]

The distance between the 240 hr GFS and Euro plots has been cut by roughly 400 miles with this 18Z run

[jlauderdal]

The 18z GFS continues the ever so gradual westward trends from over the past few GFS runs.

The Gfs must be thinking if it keeps making small westward adjustments it will eventually be near the Euro and nobody will have noticed lol


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we never forget

we are good through 5 days so really thats a victory as far as a forecast goes

[ronyan]

Manhattan Hit. Sharp NW turn.

[meriland23]

landfall @ 252 hours

[meriland23]

264 hours

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think the GFS has been remarkably consistant with its solution over the last 6 or 7 runs but it has been nudging west on each of those runs.

[ronyan]

Movement slows greatly after landfall after 264 hrs on 18z GFS, but getting into very long range territory.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Wow just hooks it right into the northeast. I'm practically laughing at what the GFS is showing

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Wow just hooks it right into the northeast. I'm practically laughing at what the GFS is showing

Why?

[bamajammer4eva]

last 5 runs GFS trend @156 hrs on 18z today

[centuryv58]

I think the GFS has been remarkably consistant with its solution over the last 6 or 7 runs but it has been nudging west on each of those runs.

Perhaps consistently wrong, but trying to correct itself.

[meriland23]

Question is if the GFS predicts a major Hurricane, of course this far out is very flexible but I am rather confused. On one hand, the MB is around 950 upon landfall, Cat 3. On other GFS models, it's 930ish, Cat 4.

[tolakram]

Wow just hooks it right into the northeast. I'm practically laughing at what the GFS is showing

Why?

Because it's complete nonsense, almost like the GFS wants to win a popularity contest by showing something dramatic out in fantasy land. The GFS skill at that range is a little better than a blindfolded kid throwing darts at a map.

[ConvergenceZone]

Holy Crap that's a scary run! Although out to sea is definitely still possible. The percentage of it going out to sea has definitely decreased

[jason1912]

Q Cat 3. On other GFS models, it's 930ish, Cat 4.

*If* that were the case, it would beat the 1938 hurricane.

[robbielyn]

I hope for my boss's sake this misses the bahamas cuz he leaves friday to vacation there. Poor guy he deserves a vacation.

you just want the boss out of your grill...Bahamas definitely in play..several ways to get attacked, due north per the gfs or the euro goes farther west then bahamas gets nailed as it ejects out heading NE, two ways to win

I'd be happy to trade places with him should he get scared of a "little hurricane" lol j/k. We work at the hospital it's a chaotic mess there everyday.