ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Now I have no professional experience, but I am addicted to reading these boards. The amount of people that say out to sea after one run, or jump on one model so early is alarming:

However, my zero experience believes this winds up hitting Florida from the west, somewhere between extreme sw Florida moving NE, to the big bend....
Something similar to Charley

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

[HurrMark]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 12.7N 54.0W T2.5/2.5 97L
27/1745 UTC 12.4N 53.1W T2.0/2.0 97L
27/1145 UTC 12.4N 52.0W T1.5/1.5 97L

Getting close to the "magic" 55W LarryC noted as the easternmost point for a TC to strike the US in late September and after...

I think 73 W will be key. If it gets to 73, I don't think it will avoid a US impact of some sort (73-75 would likely be much further up the coast but still US)

[HurrMark]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092800, , BEST, 0, 131N, 553W, 30, 1008

...and there's your 55 LarryC...

[HurrMark]

IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=17&lon=-54&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=yellow

Has to be depression. Even as my eyes scream TS.

It looks good but the proof is what is going on in the low levels

[abajan]

I think I heard earlier this evening that at 11 PM EST our local TV channel (CBC TV8) will have a live special broadcast on 97L and preparations for its impact.

[setexholmes]

Well Hammy is calling it a mess. Thank God I would really be worried when he is. I mean no insult, your insight is always very good and much appreciated but I think you have called everything a sheared mess ever since I've seen this board several years ago.

[cycloneye]

Another must see video by Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/780937811063148544

[tolakram]

Well Hammy is calling it a mess. Thank God I would really be worried when he is. I mean no insult, your insight is always very good and much appreciated but I think you have called everything a sheared mess ever since I've seen this board several years ago.

To be fair I think everything has been a sheared mess for several years. Ok, almost everything.

[Steve]

Well Hammy is calling it a mess. Thank God I would really be worried when he is. I mean no insult, your insight is always very good and much appreciated but I think you have called everything a sheared mess ever since I've seen this board several years ago.

To be fair I think everything has been a sheared mess for several years. Ok, almost everything.

Hammy is actually ninel conde and The Storms Expert when she logs on with the other aliases.

And yeah, I'm kidding.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I recall reading discussions earlier in the season and people were relating the steering pattern of 2016 to 2004. Turns out that we might have that come into play with Matthew possibly taking a track close to charley. We already had Hermine almost take a track close to Ivan's and Florida has been affected by 3 and possibly soon to be a 4th system. They have not been nearly as strong as 2004's systems so far due to obvious reasons but the landfalling samples 2004 slightly.

[Hammy]

Well Hammy is calling it a mess. Thank God I would really be worried when he is. I mean no insult, your insight is always very good and much appreciated but I think you have called everything a sheared mess ever since I've seen this board several years ago.

To be fair I think everything has been a sheared mess for several years. Ok, almost everything.

Hammy is actually ninel conde and The Storms Expert when she logs on with the other aliases.

And yeah, I'm kidding.

Plot twist!

Based on wind flow it appears there could be a very broad low near 11.5/55.5. I wonder a bit though if this is simply very elongated and the MLC may reform a more coherent center. But my doubts arise from the fact that this looked decent yesterday as well, only to appear less organized the next morning--the Caribbean and areas east haven't exactly been particularly favorable recently.

As an aside, after overlaying the ASCAT passes to figure out where the pass will be, it looks like it'll clip only the eastern portion of the circulation--we won't have any conclusive answer until the plane arrives tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

Another must see video by Levi Cowan.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 1063148544

Great video. Levi did note the GFS has been trending west a little closer towards the Euro each run and that given 97l is still weak, the Euro seems to have a better handle on the short-term forecast as far as intensity is concerned. Lots of uncertainty beyond day 5.

[fci]

IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=17&lon=-54&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=yellow

Has to be depression. Even as my eyes scream TS.

Got to close off a circulation first.
We have seen this a lot where an Invest looks incredible but the upgrade doesn't come for an excruciatingly long time.
Then we see what looks like garbage be a Depression.
Has to fit the criteria.

[toad strangler]

IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=17&lon=-54&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=yellow

Has to be depression. Even as my eyes scream TS.

Got to close off a circulation first.
We have seen this a lot where an Invest looks incredible but the upgrade doesn't come for an excruciatingly long time.
Then we see what looks like garbage be a Depression.
Has to fit the criteria.

Fully aware of all of this. But that's a depression.

[AutoPenalti]

Has to be depression. Even as my eyes scream TS.

Got to close off a circulation first.
We have seen this a lot where an Invest looks incredible but the upgrade doesn't come for an excruciatingly long time.
Then we see what looks like garbage be a Depression.
Has to fit the criteria.

Fully aware of all of this. But that's a depression.

Based on Dvorak estimates, yes. But there's no proof of a LLC without recon going out there.

[Evenstar]

I'm so sorry I asked the question. Being on the board for a long time, I guess I should have known better. I should keep my questions to myself.

Um, no. Don't apologize. I have learned a lot here from asking stupid questions. Most folks here are kind, patient and helpful. If someone is unkind to you because you've asked a question, don't sweat it or them. There are plenty of others who have lovely manners and are happy to help.

Cheers.

Fair winds and following seas...

[Fego]

Interestingly, this debate about "looking like a tropical cyclone" was precisely the same with another 97L (Earl).

[Medtronic15]

[floridasun78]

good rain band leewards islands now let see strong wind islands get

[Hurricaneman]

Circulation looks somewhat broad but closed