ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[RickM]

Is it just me or is this further north?

BTW wife and I are leaving for Cayman at 5am this morning. Supposed to be a 7 day trip. Hoping we can get a good 3 days before leaving.

Do it. Do it. Do it. Do it. Worse comes to to worst, they'll have shelters there and you'll probably be in a big concrete hotel. Just ask for floor 2 or 3 to be safe Oh, and even a day without power on an island is probably preferable.

I read they ran 27 fights out during Ivan for anyone who wanted to leave could leave. So I'm not too worried.

[Blown Away]

24 hours ago most were certain Hispaniola would be devastated... Now models a few cycles away from clearing the big island... What will tomorrow bring??

[CrazyC83]

Are we starting to get consensus around 75°W or could they keep going west?

[Steve]

Are we starting to get consensus around 75°W or could they keep going west?

Due north move begins 5-7 degrees farther west in 24 hours. Eventually it will come to the European or there will be a compromise. Watch Levi's video if you haven't seen it yet.

[stormreader]

Are we starting to get consensus around 75°W or could they keep going west?

West! Listened to Levi. After day 4 steering currents weak. He emphasized the uncertainty of later track. Said storm might be in Carribean for 7-8 days!! Due to weak steering. In general that would indicate a more west solution, I think.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Are we starting to get consensus around 75°W or could they keep going west?

Due north move begins 5-7 degrees farther west in 24 hours. Eventually it will come to the European or there will be a compromise. Watch Levi's video if you haven't seen it yet.

Not saying it will play out that way but I have a bad feeling about where the "compromise" will be.

[TheStormExpert]

Will the 00z GFS continue that trend? Stay tuned for another edition of 'Model Watching'!

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/780932687754256384

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Sounds like wxman57 is implying a Hurricane David(1979) type track with possibly the closest approach to Florida being along the Palm Beach County coastline due to that being the eastern-most point of FL, just my guess.

Possibly, but I have low confidence in the forecast beyond the next 6 days. Could become a major hurricane in the Caribbean, I'm thinking (Cat 3-4).

[wxman57]

http://i67.tinypic.com/2iw15cn.jpg
24 hours ago most were certain Hispaniola would be devastated... Now models a few cycles away from clearing the big island... What will tomorrow bring??

Most of those models are pure garbage.

[HurricaneEric]

http://i67.tinypic.com/2iw15cn.jpg
24 hours ago most were certain Hispaniola would be devastated... Now models a few cycles away from clearing the big island... What will tomorrow bring??

Most of those models are pure garbage.

The ones pointing at Hispaniola or more western models?

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow: Sounds like wxman57 is implying a Hurricane David(1979) type track with possibly the closest approach to Florida being along the Palm Beach County coastline due to that being the eastern-most point of FL, just my guess.

Possibly, but I have low confidence in the forecast beyond the next 6 days. Could become a major hurricane in the Caribbean, I'm thinking (Cat 3-4).

Here is hoping this stays east of Florida,it's the last thing I need to deal with right before going on vacation.

[Steve]

Great plot. Those are subtle moves to be sure. But back when this was in the 30s West and it was recurving farther East, I posed the question of whether or not new physics data corrected its propensity to break down ridging and put troughs in the Eastern US too quickly. The answer is probably that this known bias was probably not fixed. That bias has existed since we were watching the AVN and MRF. Haha. I'm not a GFS hater, but you have to take it for what it's worth and include known flaws when analyzing it.

Having said all that, Megi is landfalling much closer to where the GFS had it over the last 3 days. But the European beat it prior to that timeframe. So it was good in the endgame. But all the while it ignores that there will be strong ridging in the SE US a week thru a week and a few days later because that's what happens. What we don't know is what happens after 9/10 days. I think it's clear that Matthew can slow or stall in the 4-6 day range. And I think it's clear that ridging will control steering for another 4-5 after that. The key comes beyond those features and timeframes. Does troughing move into the East day 10, 11 or 12? Do the currents remain weak with steering up north? Does the ridge amplify allowing Matthew to have a west component and get to 85/88 west, and if so, does it take a 90 degree turn or does it ease gradually around the western periphery of the trough? I don't know. And I'm moving any real shot at certainty from this weekend to early or mid next week.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: Sounds like wxman57 is implying a Hurricane David(1979) type track with possibly the closest approach to Florida being along the Palm Beach County coastline due to that being the eastern-most point of FL, just my guess.

Possibly, but I have low confidence in the forecast beyond the next 6 days. Could become a major hurricane in the Caribbean, I'm thinking (Cat 3-4).

Wow 57! You got my attention now here in SFL.

[crimi481]

If the trough in the gulf is weak, and if models hinting at 8-9 days before reaches Florida area, the steering currents may be too weak and it sits near Yucatan/ Belize - never gets to s. Cuba.

No pro here.

[meriland23]

The important thing is whether or not it will be driven out to sea,or if the mountains near Cuba will destabilize it and drive it off course. This could very well be a Carribean hit, or it'll mosey its way up the NE. If GFS, specifically 18z has anything to do with it then that would be one of the worst possible scenarios in terms of devastation.. but that was just 18z's run, so it's best that that reference is closely monitored with GFS's impending 00z & 06z runs

[floridasun78]

:uarrow: Sounds like wxman57 is implying a Hurricane David(1979) type track with possibly the closest approach to Florida being along the Palm Beach County coastline due to that being the eastern-most point of FL, just my guess.

Possibly, but I have low confidence in the forecast beyond the next 6 days. Could become a major hurricane in the Caribbean, I'm thinking (Cat 3-4).

Here is hoping this stays east of Florida,it's the last thing I need to deal with right before going on vacation.

i live park model homes so don't need this or any one on coast line feel bad islands their no way out only way by islands

[stormreader]

Great plot. Those are subtle moves to be sure. But back when this was in the 30s West and it was recurving farther East, I posed the question of whether or not new physics data corrected its propensity to break down ridging and put troughs in the Eastern US too quickly. The answer is probably that this known bias was probably not fixed. That bias has existed since we were watching the AVN and MRF. Haha. I'm not a GFS hater, but you have to take it for what it's worth and include known flaws when analyzing it.

Having said all that, Megi is landfalling much closer to where the GFS had it over the last 3 days. But the European beat it prior to that timeframe. So it was good in the endgame. But all the while it ignores that there will be strong ridging in the SE US a week thru a week and a few days later because that's what happens. What we don't know is what happens after 9/10 days. I think it's clear that Matthew can slow or stall in the 4-6 day range. And I think it's clear that ridging will control steering for another 4-5 after that. The key comes beyond those features and timeframes. Does troughing move into the East day 10, 11 or 12? Do the currents remain weak with steering up north? Does the ridge amplify allowing Matthew to have a west component and get to 85/88 west, and if so, does it take a 90 degree turn or does it ease gradually around the western periphery of the trough? I don't know. And I'm moving any real shot at certainty from this weekend to early or mid next week.

What's amazing to me (and I listened to Levi, too) is that we're even considering a "day 10" for this storm now entering the Carribean. That kind of slow and indecisive pace would almost certainly bring the storm further west than most are allowing for at this time. We shall see.

[Bocadude85]

0z NAM very similar to the 12Z Euro through 84 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092800&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Nimbus]

Great plot. Those are subtle moves to be sure. But back when this was in the 30s West and it was recurving farther East, I posed the question of whether or not new physics data corrected its propensity to break down ridging and put troughs in the Eastern US too quickly. The answer is probably that this known bias was probably not fixed. That bias has existed since we were watching the AVN and MRF. Haha. I'm not a GFS hater, but you have to take it for what it's worth and include known flaws when analyzing it.

Having said all that, Megi is landfalling much closer to where the GFS had it over the last 3 days. But the European beat it prior to that timeframe. So it was good in the endgame. But all the while it ignores that there will be strong ridging in the SE US a week thru a week and a few days later because that's what happens. What we don't know is what happens after 9/10 days. I think it's clear that Matthew can slow or stall in the 4-6 day range. And I think it's clear that ridging will control steering for another 4-5 after that. The key comes beyond those features and timeframes. Does troughing move into the East day 10, 11 or 12? Do the currents remain weak with steering up north? Does the ridge amplify allowing Matthew to have a west component and get to 85/88 west, and if so, does it take a 90 degree turn or does it ease gradually around the western periphery of the trough? I don't know. And I'm moving any real shot at certainty from this weekend to early or mid next week.

Nah Beven will just say "right turn Clyde" and it will go out to sea...

[hurricanehunter69]

Might sound funny, but what with the model spread and the large shifts we've already seen, I just think that the Northern Gulf Coast really has to keep an eye on this.

Northern Gulf Coast definitely should watch. I am sticking with Yucatán Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. Just an amateur opinion.

Here we go....I was worried I would start reading Northern Gulf Coast posts. God and Mother Nature will always stay pissed off at New Orleans. And after all, and "as they say" if you're in the bulls eye this far out....you're safe.