ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Can't agree more this is just crazy.

[WeatherEmperor]

Moving N towards OBX




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[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Anyone know what atmospheroc conditions the cmc is using to generate their runs of staying on the opposite side of the islands and probably into the GOM?

[FLpanhandle91]

[psyclone]

That GFS track is still a good ways east of FL...recall Irene of 2011 blasting the Bahamas while florida was fine..it also takes the storm through the mountainous areas of eastern cuba which could be disruptive...along with downslope from Hispaniola.

[Kingarabian]

Carolina's this run.

[Bocadude85]

The 0z CMC is actually very similar to the 12Z run through 144 hours and probably would have been further west but it develops a low pressure area to the east which breaks down the ridge some. That low pressure was not there on the 12z run.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016092800&fh=6

[bamajammer4eva]

192 hr gfs Trend over past 24hrs as north/east progression seems to slow each run



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[SeGaBob]

if it keeps shifting west I'll have to watch this...

[Alyono]

CMC shows the worst nor'easter on record from Hatteras through Boston. Not sure how it avoids landfall

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS showing strong cat 3 to weak cat 4 landfall just north of Wilmington at hour 216.

[toad strangler]

Another step W all through the run by the 0z GFS with a huge NC hit. Does this W trend stop?

[WeatherEmperor]

CMC shows the worst nor'easter on record from Hatteras through Boston. Not sure how it avoids landfall

.....lol! This post reminded me why I shouldnt be upset the Canadian shifted east. It is afterall the Canadian model lol


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[MississippiWx]

UKMET has been a windshield wiper so far on 97L. Trash pile it goes.

0z CMC at 500mb shows the Bermuda Ridge trending west just like the GFS. Knowing the CMC, it will still be way out to sea for some odd reason.

GFS trend is something to be concerned about from the Gulf Coast all the way up the Eastern Seaboard. Slower system will go more west in this setup as the SE Canada/NE US ridge blossoms over the top on most models past 180 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

Any Florida hit yet?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Great question Toad.

[WeatherEmperor]

Alright now that wr got the Gfs, Canadian and Ukmet over with...who is staying up for the Euro??


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[Bocadude85]

Any Florida hit yet?

No not yet...which is actually somewhat concerning considering a lot of people say the safest place to be is in the bullseye 7-10 days out.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has a weird cutoff in the Central Atlantic which is probably bogus

[ConvergenceZone]

I thought the GFS would swing East this run, but nope overall West trend continues. Up to the EURO now. Will it go East or will it go a bit more West and obliterate Miami? I almost want to stay up for this run, even though I know it's still very early.