ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1681 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:37 am

TheStormExpert wrote:The door is WIDE OPEN for it to swing NE out to sea @144hrs.

Yes, last run had a big escape also, but got blocked later, let's see
Last edited by SeGaBob on Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1682 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:39 am

SeGaBob wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The door is WIDE OPEN for it to swing NE out to sea @144hrs.

Yes, last run had a big escape also but got blocked later, let's see


I doubt there will be a block this time. Of course, you already somehow know this. ;)

I'm thinking no block but maybe no recurve either. Watch out NC!
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1683 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:40 am

I wouldn't be all that sure yet. The western CONUS trough has already gone negative tilt at H168. The could, at least briefly, pump up the ridge to its east. Still looks like a close call this run, and of course, we're still 8+ days out. Let's see a few more panels.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1684 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:43 am

Bahamas are looking not so good again. 192hrs.
With a front over Mississippi River area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1685 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:45 am

NNE at 192... might be right about tad east. Could get blocked I reckon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1686 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:45 am

The OH Valley cutoff low is back to hanging around vs. lifting out as in previous runs/GFS runs. This might swing close to Bermuda after all. :P
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1687 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:45 am

The cut-off low reappears off the NE U.S. Coast, that should kick this OTS!

Wasn't there on the 12z run yesterday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1688 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:47 am

Does this mean the end of the westward trend in the Euros? We'll see!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1689 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:47 am

TheStormExpert wrote:The cut-off low reappears off the NE U.S. Coast, that should kick this OTS!

Wasn't there on the 12z run yesterday.


Track is very Sandy-esque over the islands, given some of the trending that cutoff low, depending on it's position, may slingshot this into the coast--we've already seen it happen to Japan this year so the pattern potential is certainly there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1690 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:50 am

What a mess.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1691 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:50 am

didnt this issue happen with hermine? the difficulty in tracking due to the back and forth of a ridge in mid atlantic and then the low moving in? i remember a few times they had her out to sea as well until it was clearer than the ridge wasnt going anywhere.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1692 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:52 am

Slowing down to a crawl @216hrs. in the SE Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1693 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:54 am

Might have just stalled given relative weak steering but especially as a result of perhaps rapid deepening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1694 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:55 am

Obviously fantasy land, but it looks like a ridge develops underneath the Plains negatively tilted trof. This allows 97L to be stuck in a COL area between the competing steering influences of the aforementioned ridge to its west and whatever's left of that northeastern U.S. cutoff in the western Atlantic.

Pretty complex setup, and the map at 500mb will probably shift about 10x in the next 10 runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1695 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:56 am

NW jog at H240. eek.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1696 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:57 am

Bahamas are in trouble with a deeping system and slow mover.
Last edited by stormhunter7 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1697 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:58 am

Ridge building at 240 hours could move wnw at this point
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1698 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:58 am

Uh-Oh!!! Slowly turning NW towards S. Florida @240hrs. and further deepening to Cat.5 intensity!
:double: :double:
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SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1699 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:58 am

I don't know Larry if I was right. Seems about the same but slower.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1700 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:59 am

Pencil ridge rebuilding to it NW and N as it slows to a NW crawl. Some more long days and nights of model analysis ahead....
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