Pouch 41L - Wave in Central Atlantic

[chaser1]

In a conversation in another thread, Abajan made note of this increasingly convective wave approaching 40W, yet perhaps flying under the radar given all the present attention focused on 97L. In fact, this had been assigned Pouch 41 and late today began to suggest slight mid level turning. Thus far, the models do not really take notice of it yet it too is racing westward and perhaps at a latitude a tad further south than 97L.

At present it appears that outflow from 97l might be hindering development but dry air is no longer a factor throughout the MDR. This feature should continue to be monitored as it progresses on a mostly westerly track. 97L aside, all interests in the Lesser Antilles should also remain aware of this fairly large monsoonal low as it tracks westward.

[terstorm1012]

ahh, a sneaker wave behind 97L/Matthew-to-be!

[Gustywind]

In a conversation in another thread, Abajan made note of this increasingly convective wave approaching 40W, yet perhaps flying under the radar given all the present attention focused on 97L. In fact, this had been assigned Pouch 41 and late today began to suggest slight mid level turning. Thus far, the models do not really take notice of it yet it too is racing westward and perhaps at a latitude a tad further south than 97L.

At present it appears that outflow from 97l might be hindering development but dry air is no longer a factor throughout the MDR. This feature should continue to be monitored as it progresses on a mostly westerly track. 97L aside, all interests in the Lesser Antilles should also remain aware of this fairly large monsoonal low as it tracks westward.

Thanks good catch. We will keep an eye on as we never know.

[chaser1]

I"m not sure how much chance this wave will have to develop in the near term. I could try and make an argument that perhaps some weak mid level center might exist close to 8N and 42W, but hard to say. Firstly this couldn't develop any bit north of 10N due to getting ripped to shreds as a result of the strong outflow from Matthew. The other issue it may be dealing with is the wave having adequate surface inflow from the west given that Matthew's large circulation is gradually becoming deeper and thus pulling in air at the surface from all directions as it does. Lets see if this feature slows down, or if a new pouch develops further east over the next couple of days. I"m guessing that the whole monsoonal "blob" will continue to slide westward with time. Will just have to see if Matthew's outflow will continue to suppress anything to its east to develop.

[colbroe]

Just noticed that Pouch 41L has a 1011 low attached to it , located at 45 W , needs to be watched .

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

A tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic with axis from 14N36W
to a 1011 mb low near 10N47W to 05N47W, moving west at 15 kt over
the next 24 hours. The convection observed around these features
is mostly related to the proximity of the ITCZ which has scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms south of 12N between 41W-50W

[colbroe]

This wave now has a 1009 low attached to it.

[abajan]

Winds Just Below Tropical Storm Force



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located over the south-central Caribbean Sea.

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central
tropical Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. Although recent
satellite wind data indicate that the system is producing winds just
below tropical storm force, any additional development is expected
to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds while the low
moves northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Berg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Formation Chances Remain at 10%/20%



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located over the south-central Caribbean Sea.

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and winds to
near tropical storm force over the central tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development, if any, of
this system is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-
level winds while the low moves northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016



A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1008 mb
low near 14N51W to 23N52W, moving WNW at 10-15 kt over the past
24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind
shear and Saharan dry air and dust is observed mainly W of its
axis. Low level moisture and middle level diffluence support
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 11N to 23N between 43W
and 55W.

[CrazyC83]

This wave may hold one of the clues of Matthew's fate. If it becomes a full fledged TC it might open a route out to sea that would otherwise be blocked.

[chaser1]

Looks like we now have a thread going in the "Active Storm Section" so moderators might wish to lock this forum

[AJC3]

This disturbance is now Invest 98L


Invest 98L discussion thread viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118388