ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ken711]

I think the models are closing in my NC/VA landfall prediction.

[toad strangler]

6Z GEFS

That's a decent spread N & E. That would translate to many hits on the CONUS up the stream. If, of course, the GFS is not on crack right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

6Z GFS, 0 - 192


0Z Euro, 0 - 192

So in reality they are similar in thought about a left hand turn at 192 hrs but GFS is just well further north when it happens. Guessing the slower development in the euro is the difference.

[tolakram]

I think the models are closing in my NC/VA landfall prediction.

Where are you located Ken?

[HURRICANELONNY]

So what I'm seeing in the models that are posted. The ECMWF has merged kinda of with the track of GFS. If that happens. Would be good for me in S Fl. but not too good for the carolinas. I think if it's Matheww today it will go east of Florida.

[gatorcane]

Often times, models can be too quick to extract cyclones from the deep Caribbean...so the ECMWF may be on to something. NASA model even slower with the extraction and turns WNW in the Yucatan Channel.

[TheStormExpert]

Often times, models can be too quick to extract cyclones from the deep Caribbean...so the ECMWF may be on to something. NASA model even slower with the extraction and turns WNW in the Yucatan Channel.

It could be, but even the 00z Euro is starting to speed things up a little in the short/medium range prior to going over Jamaica.

[SoupBone]

Any idea what the forecasted impact for the ABC islands is?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Oh believe me. I don't take the models too seriously. When Mathew forms. Then I'll take more notice.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hwrf is more west into east central cuba


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[TimeZone]

Gotta love how the Euro continues to show "Matthew" jumping over Cuba's mountain's, barely weakening and then undergoing RI immediately afterwards with basically zero repercussions after crossing Cuba. Must be some GOM 2005 esq conditions waiting in the Bahamas.

[Alyono]

Gotta love how the Euro continues to show "Matthew" jumping over Cuba's mountain's, barely weakening and then undergoing RI immediately afterwards with basically zero repercussions after crossing Cuba. Must be some GOM 2005 esq conditions waiting in the Bahamas.

It weakens on the full ECMWF

[BensonTCwatcher]

Actually seeing pretty good consistency between models and ensembles and it's still quite concerning and growing more so as we are at that 5 day point of Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, DR, somebody in the Greater Antilles is going to get a nasty cyclone. Generally so far the biggest differences are in timing and ridging, of course I am continually trying to resist looking at intensity specifically, rather more in relative terms (Weak, Moderate, Strong,) So far, we look to be on still on track for the turn and at least a moderate cyclone by 75W 15N. Also looks like a strong cyclone in the Bahamas is in the cards. That blocking ridge ( of varying height and center) is showing up pretty consistently, which for those of us in NC is always trouble. I'd like to see the cut off low or a positively tilted trough showing up each run.

[Bocadude85]

Hwrf is more west into east central cuba


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Farthest west run for the HWRFA yet.

[jlauderdal]

Gotta love how the Euro continues to show "Matthew" jumping over Cuba's mountain's, barely weakening and then undergoing RI immediately afterwards with basically zero repercussions after crossing Cuba. Must be some GOM 2005 esq conditions waiting in the Bahamas.

its weaker and remember the real big mountains are in the far east part of cuba...model intensity always iffy especially this far out..wait and watch situation

[jlauderdal]

cuba topography map..my second picture upload of the day..one generator, one topography map..sheesh

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://mytest.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/por ... el%20plots


Most 06Z's...HWRF and GFDL in same page. Central Bahamas look to be this mornings consensus.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/780982008189116416

[TheStormExpert]

12z Model Guidance:





06z GEFS Ensembles:



00z GEPS Ensembles:

[ronjon]

06z GFDL looks like it wants to wipe Grand Cayman off the earth with a 921 mb hurricane.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092806&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=0