ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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BensonTCwatcher
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#761 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:54 am

I don't think the shear is that much of a problem. the 200-850 shear looks to be all on the NE quadrant, which is where it's forecast to stay as the 200mb Upper Trop. Trough breaks down ahead of the system. This still allows anti-cyclonic flow over the center and west side. Looks like it will do nothing but help development so long as convention persists.

Look like the Mid levels are starting to rotate en masse.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#762 Postby JPmia » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:56 am

Aric Dunn wrote:definitely enough convection to close off a circ just needs a little more time.

expect a shift west in the models.


Aric, care to elaborate on the west shift?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#763 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:57 am

Saved loop, spin at mid-levels, maybe 700MB but I don't see any evidence of a closed circulation at the low-levels, soon it will be in an area will it will be getting some inflow fromSouth America so while this would not halt further organization and a closed low from forming (i.e. Matthew from being borne), it could definitely halt significant intensification. There are also tall mountains along the northern coast of South America.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#764 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:58 am

Anyone notice that 97L has 60kt+ flight level winds? Lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#765 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:58 am

JPmia wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:definitely enough convection to close off a circ just needs a little more time.

expect a shift west in the models.


Aric, care to elaborate on the west shift?


it is farther west in-terms of initialization and is moving slightly faster as its still weak and following the low flow. most of the models have had this already a TS by this point and deeper. this will make it father west before that turn.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#766 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:00 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
JPmia wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:definitely enough convection to close off a circ just needs a little more time.

expect a shift west in the models.


Aric, care to elaborate on the west shift?


it is farther west in-terms of initialization and is moving slightly faster as its still weak and following the low flow. most of the models have had this already a TS by this point and deeper. this will make it father west before that turn.


Models had this as a 1008mb low moving through the islands with TS winds. The models are spot on so far in terms of development
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#767 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:01 am

and then farther west before turn means it will give it more time for the high pressure ridge that the euro is showing to build in and could take it into the GOM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#768 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:02 am

Alyono wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
JPmia wrote:
Aric, care to elaborate on the west shift?


it is farther west in-terms of initialization and is moving slightly faster as its still weak and following the low flow. most of the models have had this already a TS by this point and deeper. this will make it father west before that turn.


Models had this as a 1008mb low moving through the islands with TS winds. The models are spot on so far in terms of development


there is no closed low and its farther west than the models were showing and still in the low level flow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#769 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:02 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
JPmia wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:definitely enough convection to close off a circ just needs a little more time.

expect a shift west in the models.


Aric, care to elaborate on the west shift?


it is farther west in-terms of initialization and is moving slightly faster as its still weak and following the low flow. most of the models have had this already a TS by this point and deeper. this will make it father west before that turn.


I agree, the trades increase thru the Carib. Sea add in the drier inflow downslope off the mountains of SA and I think this struggles to deepen as rapidly as the models have indicated.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#770 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:03 am

Alyono wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
JPmia wrote:
Aric, care to elaborate on the west shift?


it is farther west in-terms of initialization and is moving slightly faster as its still weak and following the low flow. most of the models have had this already a TS by this point and deeper. this will make it father west before that turn.


Models had this as a 1008mb low moving through the islands with TS winds. The models are spot on so far in terms of development


Alyono you are more qualified to answer this than I am but isnt it true that 2-3 days ago most models had a strong TS or Cat1 right before the islands? I think it wasnt until yesterday the models slowly trended weaker to the 1008mb intensity the models are showing now. I think I remember a few pri mets a few days ago mentioning it could be a Cat1 approaching the islands.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#771 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:03 am

models have struggled all year with how quick the storms are developing.....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#772 Postby Weatherboy1 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:04 am

FWIW, the Weather Prediction Center has the low that is 97/Matthew plunked down in central Cuba, rather than farther E/NE at day 7. Obviously we're talking about something that is several days out still. But worth noting that such a location would obviously increase the threat to FL ...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=ter
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#773 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:04 am

Right now this is just a very sharp Wave axis with 700mb winds mixing down to the surface in heavy convection along with a strong gradient. Give it more time!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#774 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:05 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:FWIW, the Weather Prediction Center has the low that is 97/Matthew plunked down in central Cuba, rather than farther E/NE at day 7. Obviously we're talking about something that is several days out still. But worth noting that such a location would obviously increase the threat to FL ...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=ter


That might give us an insight to what the NHC is thinking. They would have been making 7 day forecasts for 97L for a few days now and that info is communicated with WPC during conference calls.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#775 Postby Hamanard » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:08 am

Looking at the current wind speeds the recon is finding; is it feasible for this system to go straight from an invest to a hurricane? Has that ever happened in the Atlantic? Has to be rare nonetheless.
Last edited by Hamanard on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#776 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:08 am

I found this Gfs run from 5-6 days ago showing a Cat1 on full resolution. The intensity trend since that time was weaker and weaker

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#777 Postby pcolaman » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:10 am

Looking more and more like an Ivan forcast.I don't think that the turn happens until it's well south of western Cuba. Models keep tracking more west each run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#778 Postby MGC » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:12 am

Looking at the Barbados radar loop, 97L is not a TC yet. Circulation is too broad.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#779 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:14 am

MGC wrote:Looking at the Barbados radar loop, 97L is not a TC yet. Circulation is too broad.....MGC


No TC, but being classified a TC is overrated. Recon is finding surface winds of 60mph. Flight level winds are 64kts+...the heaviest thunderstorms will bring those gusts to the surface.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#780 Postby bg1 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:18 am

Hamanard wrote:Looking at the current wind speeds the recon is finding; is it feasible for this system to go straight from an invest to a hurricane? Has that ever happened in the Atlantic? Has to be rare nonetheless.


No, the quickest a storm has gone from named to hurricane is 12 hours (Paula, 2010)

EDIT: Operationally, that is; Paula actually had been a TS earlier than thought.

Funilly enough, I "predicted" an instant hurricane for this year, but in the W. Caribbean.
Last edited by bg1 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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