ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

this should be a fun cone

[RL3AO]

Wow. What a change in organization in just an hour or two. Light and variable to 20 kt southerlies.

[p1nheadlarry]

:uarrow: Just saw the plotted W. winds as plotted by recon. Technically could be enough to classify I suppose but certainly not well defined quite yet. I'd guess NHC might hold off for the minute but issue a special tropical disturbance update indicating that a special advisory might be issued later this afternoon to upgrade at that time. (ummmm, in the immortal words of Rosanne Rosannadana - SNL, "Never-Mind" lol)

Oh well, whatever, nevermind...hello matthew

[wxman57]

this should be a fun cone

Remember, that cone is pretty much meaningless, as it merely reflects track error over the past 5 years. It has absolutely nothing to do with the current forecast uncertainty or potential impact area with Matthew. The cone will be identical for every storm and every advisory issued in 2016.

The 5-day track will be only marginally more interesting, as there is pretty good model agreement up until then. I expect that the NHC will put the 5-day point southeast of Jamaica, perhaps near 17N/76W. No big surprise there. Our 7-day track has it north of eastern Cuba heading for the central Bahamas. I wouldn't want to make a 10-day track...

[Gustywind]

Hope that all my friends in the Windwards islands and even in the Leewards are prepared! Be safe and dry.
Regards.
Gustywind

[stormlover2013]

that is true!!!!!

[tanguy97]

Here in Guadeloupe winds from ENE picking up now. Rough sea. Overcast in all quadrants. Intermittent rain.

[AxaltaRacing24]

End of the cone has 90Kts

[NDG]

I should had said earlier that I was 51% sure about an upgrade instead of 50/50

[bg1]

this should be a fun cone

Remember, that cone is pretty much meaningless, as it merely reflects track error over the past 5 years. It has absolutely nothing to do with the current forecast uncertainty or potential impact area with Matthew. The cone will be identical for every storm and every advisory issued in 2016.

The 5-day track will be only marginally more interesting, as there is pretty good model agreement up until then. I expect that the NHC will put the 5-day point southeast of Jamaica, perhaps near 17N/76W. No big surprise there. Our 7-day track has it north of eastern Cuba heading for the central Bahamas. I wouldn't want to make a 10-day track...

17.5N 76.5 W... south of eastern Jamaica.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[wxman57]

Pretty close - I'd estimated the NHC's 5-day point "near" 17N/76W. Their 5-day point is 17.5N/76.5W. 90 kts. I think it'll be stronger than that, but they're being conservative with the first advisory.

[cycloneye]

[ThetaE]

Hopefully recon goes through for a final pass. I'd like to see if it can get more organized in another hour or two.

[Steve]

76.5 is west of where the GFS has turned it due North (increasingly west) over the last few days. They're not buying it fully.

[northjaxpro]

Given how complex the pattern looking beyond 5 days in terms of where future Matthew will go, I have been very reluctant and speculating on where this system will go after it leaves the Caribbean. It is one of the most complex situations I have seen in quite sometime. Really, this is going to be very challenging times forecasting this cyclone.

I will only say this without speculating beyond 7-10 days. There has been the past 36 hours or so I have observed with a gradual westward shift. Now, we are seeing model guidance traversing future Matthew past the 75 degree Longitude benchmark before making that poleward turn after 5 days. This trend alone is an alarming one for yours truly for interests in the Eastern CONUS potentially.

This is very critical regarding potential impacts to the CONUS going into next week. There are several possibilities beyond seven days. I can only say everyone in the Eastern CONUS, starting this upcoming weekend, really need to review over their evacuation routes, and supplies needed IF the cyclone may impact your region.

It is going to be some seriously anxious times for many people in the days to come regarding this potentially dangerous tropical cyclone. l pray and hope with all sincerity that everyone in the Caribbean and the Bahamas are preparing and taking the precautions NOW to pprotect what they have and most important thing of all, their lives!!!

[HurricaneRyan]

Forming just as it hits the Caribbean.

Are conditions good enough for strengthening? I don't really trust the models after the mess with Hermine and Karl

[SouthFLTropics]

It appears that the NHC is leaning on the Euro with the SW dip before the turn. Obviously it is a blend of the models but the dip is prominent in the Euro. That dip could be key to where this affects the CONUS. Remember the dip that Katrina took over Florida and into the Gulf. That dip led to a further west landfall than was originally predicted.

[RL3AO]

Forming just as it hits the Caribbean.

Are conditions good enough for strengthening? I don't really trust the models after the mess with Hermine and Karl

Strengthening? Yes. The big question is ri or not.

[Gustywind]

Here in Guadeloupe winds from ENE picking up now. Rough sea. Overcast in all quadrants. Intermittent rain.

Agree with this observation! We should have to monitor closely the situation as TS WARNING is in effect for Guadeloupe right now given the latest TWD related to TS Matthew.

000
WTNT24 KNHC 281453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FRENCH ISLANDS OF
GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS, DOMINICA, AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA, BARBADOS, ST. VINCENT, AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS