ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[USTropics]

NHC 5 day track forecast might be interesting at 11 am. let's see where they go with the models and in discussion.

5 day cone won't be took tricky for them, I'm going to guess they split the difference between the GFS and ECMWF, slightly leaning towards the ECMWF in timeframe. Cone ending 100-200 miles SE of Jamaica maybe.

[rockyman]

5 day forecast:

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

Just off southeastern tip of Jamaica, moving NNW (closer to N):

https://www.google.com/maps/vt/data=RfC ... s5a1mN3Yts

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC 5 day track forecast might be interesting at 11 am. let's see where they go with the models and in discussion.

5 day forecast puts a 90 knot hurricane almost on top of Kingston Jamaica. 17.5N, 76.5W

[chaser1]

Some of y'all should stop by the Recon Discussion topic. 97L/trade wind combo are producing 64kt flight level winds.

yep but no defined closed center..if it was closed that would be a big deal

Makes no difference...it still has the same effect on the islands, closed circulation or not.

Wrong. With regards to modeling, properly initializing a COC does impact forecast output as it applies to track and synoptics. While conditions in the islands and their impact on those down there are very real, that in itself does not factor in the context of trying to determine where exactly a center is and the topic relating to model discussion and track forecast

[MississippiWx]

yep but no defined closed center..if it was closed that would be a big deal

Makes no difference...it still has the same effect on the islands, closed circulation or not.

Wrong. With regards to modeling, properly initializing a COC does impact forecast output as it applies to track and synoptics. While conditions in the islands and their impact on those down there are very real, that in itself does not factor in the context of trying to determine where exactly a center is and the topic relating to model discussion and track forecast

No. Not wrong. I'm not talking about tracking. I'm talking about real life conditions on the islands.

You're talking about a totally different topic.

[USTropics]

A center will be important for Jamaica now. All models improve in accuracy once true tropical genesis has occurred. The GFDL and HWRF in particular will have added value.

[ronjon]

Probably the best track now by NHC with all the uncertainty - certainly leaves room to adjust with time. Appears to take the island of Hispanola off of a direct impact for now anyway.

[jlauderdal]

Makes no difference...it still has the same effect on the islands, closed circulation or not.

Wrong. With regards to modeling, properly initializing a COC does impact forecast output as it applies to track and synoptics. While conditions in the islands and their impact on those down there are very real, that in itself does not factor in the context of trying to determine where exactly a center is and the topic relating to model discussion and track forecast

No. Not wrong. I'm not talking about tracking. I'm talking about real life conditions on the islands.

You're talking about a totally different topic.

you are both right..time to move on

[ronjon]

Splitting the baby for now.

For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.

[WeatherEmperor]

Would a stronger Matthew turn north faster and shift models right again later today?


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[Bocadude85]

Would a stronger Matthew turn north faster and shift models right again later today?


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Its pretty close to the current strength(1008mb) that the models showed the system to be at when it was passing through the Islands.

[chaser1]

Makes no difference...it still has the same effect on the islands, closed circulation or not.

Wrong. With regards to modeling, properly initializing a COC does impact forecast output as it applies to track and synoptics. While conditions in the islands and their impact on those down there are very real, that in itself does not factor in the context of trying to determine where exactly a center is and the topic relating to model discussion and track forecast

No. Not wrong. I'm not talking about tracking. I'm talking about real life conditions on the islands.

You're talking about a totally different topic.

Please correct me if my Passport is incorrectly stamped but this IS the "MODEL Thread" correct? Because if I am wrong and this were the "DISCUSSION thread", than present conditions and storm impacts would certainly be quite relevant and your point well taken. Franks' comment as it applied to determining future course and anticipated forecast track was made in this thread which I understand (and post to) applies to the conversation specific to disseminating various model guidance & analysis of those atmospheric conditions which effect the modeling process. It is in this context that your comment "Makes no difference...it still has the same effect on the islands, closed circulation or not" , just as out of context as it would be if you made it in the 97L RECON DISCUSSION thread.

[Vinnland]

12z GFS running now

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS running now

Is it just me or does it appear that the GFS initialized a hair too far north. Might be splitting hairs here but just looks that way to me.

[MississippiWx]

Wrong. With regards to modeling, properly initializing a COC does impact forecast output as it applies to track and synoptics. While conditions in the islands and their impact on those down there are very real, that in itself does not factor in the context of trying to determine where exactly a center is and the topic relating to model discussion and track forecast

No. Not wrong. I'm not talking about tracking. I'm talking about real life conditions on the islands.

You're talking about a totally different topic.

Please correct me if my Passport is incorrectly stamped but this IS the "MODEL Thread" correct? Because if I am wrong and this were the "DISCUSSION thread", than present conditions and storm impacts would certainly be quite relevant and your point well taken. Franks' comment as it applied to determining future course and anticipated forecast track was made in this thread which I understand (and post to) applies to the conversation specific to disseminating various model guidance & analysis of those atmospheric conditions which effect the modeling process. It is in this context that your comment "Makes no difference...it still has the same effect on the islands, closed circulation or not" , just as out of context as it would be if you made it in the 97L RECON DISCUSSION thread.

Lol. Okay, pal. You're way overthinking this.

Moving on...

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS running now

Is it just me or does it appear that the GFS initialized a hair too far north. Might be splitting hairs here but just looks that way to me.

Yes, it appears that way.

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS running now

Is it just me or does it appear that the GFS initialized a hair too far north. Might be splitting hairs here but just looks that way to me.

Through 24 hours the 12Z is slower and further northeast

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS is much more north this run. Ridging looks weaker off to the NW. This might recurve faster this time.

[Hamanard]

@30 stronger and north

[OntarioEggplant]

12z GFS running now

Is it just me or does it appear that the GFS initialized a hair too far north. Might be splitting hairs here but just looks that way to me.

Yes, it appears that way.

It's also that much if not further north through 30 hours. That incorrect initialization may result in this being a trash run.