ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from discussion.

A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone
northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing
developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF

[Aric Dunn]

Hopefully recon goes through for a final pass. I'd like to see if it can get more organized in another hour or two.

given the improved radar signature. with a solid curved band from north to S convection building and wrapping around the LLC is quickly becoming more defined right near St lucia.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... r_400KMSRI

[Blown Away]

+/- a few miles due to models running a few hours ago... Rough location of the center per the last GFS/Euro model runs... NHC seems to like the GFS timing better and splitting the difference on location...

[OntarioEggplant]

Interesting notes by the NHC. This is probably the safest forecast for now. As the GFS continues its march westward to become more in line with the Euro, we should see more clarity beyond what we have now.

[La Sirena]

Interesting notes by the NHC. This is probably the safest forecast for now. As the GFS continues its march westward to become more in line with the Euro, we should see more clarity beyond what we have now.

I definitely got that the NHC is taking both Euro and GFS into consideration for the moment. Very wise.

[CrazyC83]

Hopefully recon goes through for a final pass. I'd like to see if it can get more organized in another hour or two.

given the improved radar signature. with a solid curved band from north to S convection building and wrapping around the LLC is quickly becoming more defined right near St lucia.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... r_400KMSRI

I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane by tonight?

[JaxGator]

More convection is popping over and east of the center. Plus the outflow is looks good on the north side with the clouds fanning out. 60 mph is enough to bring some trees down and y'all in the Islands will get at least 4-6 inches of rain (per NHC). Stay safe.

[tigerz3030]

Given how complex the pattern looking beyond 5 days in terms of where future Matthew will go, I have been very reluctant and speculating on where this system will go after it leaves the Caribbean. It is one of the most complex situations I have seen in quite sometime. Really, this is going to be very challenging times forecasting this cyclone.

I will only say this without speculating beyond 7-10 days. There has been the past 36 hours or so I have observed with a gradual westward shift. Now, we are seeing model guidance traversing future Matthew past the 75 degree Longitude benchmark before making that poleward turn after 5 days. This trend alone is an alarming one for yours truly for interests in the Eastern CONUS potentially.

This is very critical regarding potential impacts to the CONUS going into next week. There are several possibilities beyond seven days. I can only say everyone in the Eastern CONUS, starting this upcoming weekend, really need to review over their evacuation routes, and supplies needed IF the cyclone may impact your region.

It is going to be some seriously anxious times for many people in the days to come regarding this potentially dangerous tropical cyclone. l pray and hope with all sincerity that everyone in the Caribbean and the Bahamas are preparing and taking the precautions NOW to pprotect what they have and most important thing of all, their lives!!!

So once again in St Augustine we are watching intently with this one. I know we are 7-10 days out, but your initial thoughts on this for us in the Jax area?

[CrazyC83]

Given how complex the pattern looking beyond 5 days in terms of where future Matthew will go, I have been very reluctant and speculating on where this system will go after it leaves the Caribbean. It is one of the most complex situations I have seen in quite sometime. Really, this is going to be very challenging times forecasting this cyclone.

I will only say this without speculating beyond 7-10 days. There has been the past 36 hours or so I have observed with a gradual westward shift. Now, we are seeing model guidance traversing future Matthew past the 75 degree Longitude benchmark before making that poleward turn after 5 days. This trend alone is an alarming one for yours truly for interests in the Eastern CONUS potentially.

This is very critical regarding potential impacts to the CONUS going into next week. There are several possibilities beyond seven days. I can only say everyone in the Eastern CONUS, starting this upcoming weekend, really need to review over their evacuation routes, and supplies needed IF the cyclone may impact your region.

It is going to be some seriously anxious times for many people in the days to come regarding this potentially dangerous tropical cyclone. l pray and hope with all sincerity that everyone in the Caribbean and the Bahamas are preparing and taking the precautions NOW to pprotect what they have and most important thing of all, their lives!!!

So once again in St Augustine we are watching intently with this one. I know we are 7-10 days out, but your initial thoughts on this for us in the Jax area?

It's way too soon to predict for any specific locations. It could be anywhere from the Gulf coast to Florida to the east coast to Atlantic Canada to out to sea (near Bermuda).

[MississippiWx]

Still in the Caribbean 5 days from now. This is going to be a long process.

Hope you guys got your anxiety meds refilled recently...

[Michele B]

The Euro model is making me think of Charley, for sure.

DON'T WANT IT here on Fl's SW coast!

[Yellow Evan]

First forecast looks way too conservative. It's much slower than the climatological 1 T number per day.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic:

Blown Away now that the first NHC advisory is out and the track they have I say,this thread will break the record of mosts posts.We will see after all is over.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Given how complex the pattern looking beyond 5 days in terms of where future Matthew will go, I have been very reluctant and speculating on where this system will go after it leaves the Caribbean. It is one of the most complex situations I have seen in quite sometime. Really, this is going to be very challenging times forecasting this cyclone.

I will only say this without speculating beyond 7-10 days. There has been the past 36 hours or so I have observed with a gradual westward shift. Now, we are seeing model guidance traversing future Matthew past the 75 degree Longitude benchmark before making that poleward turn after 5 days. This trend alone is an alarming one for yours truly for interests in the Eastern CONUS potentially.

This is very critical regarding potential impacts to the CONUS going into next week. There are several possibilities beyond seven days. I can only say everyone in the Eastern CONUS, starting this upcoming weekend, really need to review over their evacuation routes, and supplies needed IF the cyclone may impact your region.

It is going to be some seriously anxious times for many people in the days to come regarding this potentially dangerous tropical cyclone. l pray and hope with all sincerity that everyone in the Caribbean and the Bahamas are preparing and taking the precautions NOW to pprotect what they have and most important thing of all, their lives!!!

I agree, models were consistent 3 days ago up till now with a 15N 75W "turn point" (approximate) with developed storm. That's trending west at least to 76 or further. Synoptic changes aside, that alone will make a big difference

[StormHunter72]

Woooo! Welcome to the world, Matthew! Can't wait to see what you grow up to be!

Not really something to celebrate....

[Evil Jeremy]

Off Topic:

Blown Away now that the first NHC advisory is out and the track they have I say,this thread will break the record of mosts posts.We will see after all is over.

Think we will break the active user record? It currently stands with Hurricane Irene (2011)

[BobHarlem]

Personally, I don't think it'll impact Florida other than rip currents, Mid/Atlantic or Northeast though, or hopefully just stay out to sea (Not so good for Cuba/Jamaica/Haiti though)

[TheStormExpert]

Personally, I don't think it'll impact Florida other than rip currents, Mid/Atlantic or Northeast though, or hopefully just stay out to sea (Not so good for Cuba/Jamaica/Haiti though)

I personally don't think it will impact Florida either.

[KWT]

Off Topic:

Blown Away now that the first NHC advisory is out and the track they have I say,this thread will break the record of mosts posts.We will see after all is over.

For the alltime combined record- we need the model+disscussion+recon obs thread to total above 953...this maybe the first storm ever to go +1000 pages all combined.

Ike's discussion thread had 676 pages...so a long way to go from here still!

[stormlover2013]

I think you are riding with the GFS way to much my friends