ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Looks like a healthy TS to me. Some expect it to look like a cat 5...

Matthew is not fully mature yet. Still in the process of developing his core structure, but he is a strong tropical storm at this time. No doubt Matt is well on his way to becoming a major tropical cyclone in my analysis down the road.

[cycloneye]

Pressure down to 1005 mbs.

Lowest at first pass was 1004.3 mbs.

[northjaxpro]

Pressure down to 1005 mbs.

Lowest at first pass was 1004.3 mbs.

Yes it is cycloneye. I was about to post this. You got here first. Drop of about 4 mb since the 5:00 P.M. advisory.

[CrazyC83]

That data together supports a 55 kt intensity right now.

[Hurricaneman]

That data together supports a 55 kt intensity right now.

Maybe even 60kts

[CrazyC83]

That data together supports a 55 kt intensity right now.

Maybe even 60kts

73 kt at 850mb = 58 kt at the surface, and the SFMR is 55.

[ronyan]

NHC went with 65 mph (1004 mb) 8:00 advisory

[JaxGator]

Yep, it's strengthening and it has slowed down further to 15 mph. Don't worry, I won't do anymore speed analyses. Depending on current trends, Matthew could become a hurricane tomorrow instead of Friday. The pressure has caught up with the winds.

[RL3AO]

I think people have forgotten what favorable conditions in the Caribbean looks like. Everyone is stuck in 2013-16 mode. I see something that will probably be a major hurricane in 48 to 60 hours.

[TJRE]

Nice IR from here:
https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens ... ?ir_east+1



CIMSS Steering guidance
-Due West motion - looks locked in ATM


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm2.GIF

[Bocadude85]

Wow NHC reporting a 89mph wind gust in Martinique

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/282349.shtml

[La Sirena]

Yep, it's strengthening and it has slowed down further to 15 mph. Don't worry, I won't do anymore speed analyses. Depending on current trends, Matthew could become a hurricane tomorrow instead of Friday. The pressure has caught up with the winds.

I appreciate the speed analysis! It's pertinent to the models. Remember the Euro had it slower while traveling and GFS faster.

And I'm not surprised at how quickly it appears to be ramping up!

[JaxGator]

Yep, it's strengthening and it has slowed down further to 15 mph. Don't worry, I won't do anymore speed analyses. Depending on current trends, Matthew could become a hurricane tomorrow instead of Friday. The pressure has caught up with the winds.

I appreciate the speed analysis! It's pertinent to the models. Remember the Euro had it slower while traveling and GFS faster.

And I'm not surprised at how quickly it appears to be ramping up!

Thanks. I thought it might have been annoying at first but yeah, the speed trends do make a good point when it comes to the models. It's slowed down enough to stack better and it already looks on its way. And yes, the Euro was slower and that's not good down the road and it has more time to strengthen.

[northjaxpro]

I mentioned just a short time ago about how Matthew appears to be in the process of aligning vertically and based on the strengthening indications this evening, that stacking is well on its way. I think Matthew will be a hurricane within the next 12-24 hours.

[MGC]

We have not seen upper level conditions in the Caribbean this good all season. Matthew's outflow looks good in all quadrants. SST are warm....all the ingredients are there for Matthew to continue to intensify. Could be a hurricane by the 5am advisory. Odds are increasing that Matthew will attain major hurricane status. Jamaica, Cuba or Haiti could get slammed in a few days......MGC

[La Sirena]

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out the monster trough digging in to the southeastern US. One can clearly see why the NHC turns the storm north at 76W. However, still plenty of time for changes! Lets observe how the trough vs ridge has evolved in days 6-8? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

[Emmett_Brown]

Matthew's wind field is on the larger side or normal, TS winds already extend out 205 miles, mainly NE of the center. So, it's not a tiny storm.

[La Sirena]

Matthew's wind field is on the larger side or normal, TS winds already extend out 205 miles, mainly NE of the center. So, it's not a tiny storm.

But as it gets stacked won't it lessen some in diameter becoming more compact and faster spin? The old figure skater analogy?

[northjaxpro]

We have not seen upper level conditions in the Caribbean this good all season. Matthew's outflow looks good in all quadrants. SST are warm....all the ingredients are there for Matthew to continue to intensify. Could be a hurricane by the 5am advisory. Odds are increasing that Matthew will attain major hurricane status. Jamaica, Cuba or Haiti could get slammed in a few days......MGC

Totally agree with you MGC. I would add I am very concerned about the Bahamas too as well as great potential of Matthew impacting there.