ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Alyono]

The NOAA G-IV won't be flying for another 24 hours, but that would help refine things a bit. Considering Mathew seems to be ahead of schedule in strength, no doubt this might reinforce the right turn forecasts...

Didn't know that Frank but on TWC tonite they said the gulf stream jet was unavailable for Hermine due to corrosion problems with the plane that needed to be fixed. Now we know why the models were having a hard time....

There is a G-V but there were far more important things to fly, those being the 2 majors near Hawaii

[ConvergenceZone]

The NOAA G-IV won't be flying for another 24 hours, but that would help refine things a bit. Considering Mathew seems to be ahead of schedule in strength, no doubt this might reinforce the right turn forecasts...

I agree. Hopefully North Carolina and North is watching this very closely

[ronjon]

Wxman57...so what's your point? I didn't follow your logic on the ensemble plots. One other point is that the GFS is about 200 miles north of the ECM in 3-4 days. GFDL, UKMET, and NAM also hug the coast of south america. Seems like if Matt stays further south, ridge is stronger and he goes more west before the turn. I think the models will settle down in a few days when they get the gulf stream IV data sampling in them.

His point is that the Gulf tracks are potentially flawed because of HOW the solutions are arrived at. Because science. He's saying the eastern solutions are more likely to be correct.

Because science?? LOL Please let him speak for himself.

[Steve]

What I got from it was no ensembles showed Matthew crossing into the Gulf across Florida. I don't really care what the ensembles say yet longer range. But shorter range evolution will be getting better. Many models are sure of a straight north move. We will have to wait to see that as a completely legit option this time. It could be that the general motion is basically north, but I don't think it's just going to straight progress. Also,if it takes a Western Atlantic route offshore, there are liable to be some opportunities for stalls, loops and even west movement into the US coastline. But what if the shape of the ridge and upstream buffer air masses give it a WNW or NW bend? Florida and or the Gulf get hit. Bahamas seems most likely at the moment, but there could be a hard block. Temps here have been in the 90s, but we have a high of 80 on Friday. That's a big cold high rolling across. Matthew will be south of it, so what shape does it take as the frontal low pulls out followed by the cutoff? Nobody knows. I've been saying this weekend since last weekend and then even possibly as long as next Tuesday to have a solid idea. Only hedge would be a union of the globals and consistency for 3 or 4 runs. Then we should know sooner.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/781299700142075905

[jason1912]

The NOAA G-IV won't be flying for another 24 hours, but that would help refine things a bit. Considering Mathew seems to be ahead of schedule in strength, no doubt this might reinforce the right turn forecasts...

Agree with this very much.

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA animation:

[centuryv58]

12Z JMA animation:

JB used the JMA as one of his supports earlier today. Don't know enough about it to say how accurate it is though.

[ronjon]

Gatorcane..interesting that the JMA makes the turn more N-NW thru the peninsula. Thinking if the GFDL run went longer, might show the same thing. Another model that hugs the south American coast....Hmmm....

[BobHarlem]

0z Early model guidence shifted a bit right/east, i suspect the GFS will also, still a lot of uncertainty that far out, but I'm still leaning toward staying east of Florida. Mid Atlantic up to Canada, though...

[chris_fit]

That JMA run looks awfully suspicious, almost as if it was initialized WAY south of the actual center.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z JMA initialized Matthew too far south to begin with.

[CDO62]

12Z JMA animation:
https://s21.postimg.org/pyr7wmy13/45d5d ... 80fee8.gif]

I'm curious to know the historic accuracy of this model.

[gatorcane]

The 12z JMA initialized Matthew too far south to begin with.

But look at the "thumb" ridge that builds back in the SW Atlantic

[wxman57]

Wxman57...so what's your point? I didn't follow your logic on the ensemble plots. One other point is that the GFS is about 200 miles north of the ECM in 3-4 days. GFDL, UKMET, and NAM also hug the coast of south america. Seems like if Matt stays further south, ridge is stronger and he goes more west before the turn. I think the models will settle down in a few days when they get the gulf stream IV data sampling in them.

My thought was that the more westerly EC ensembles would all be with a weaker storm. However, that didn't turn out to be the case. I'm not sure why so many members are west of Florida.

[gatorcane]

12Z NASA model shows quite a WSW dive with a turn NNW by day 5:



You can find the model here if you want to animate the run:

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_w ... =0&tau=120

[robbielyn]

maybe if the storms slows way down it will miss the trough allowing the ridge to build back in per Levi cowan? just a amateur guess.

[Ken711]

Wxman57...so what's your point? I didn't follow your logic on the ensemble plots. One other point is that the GFS is about 200 miles north of the ECM in 3-4 days. GFDL, UKMET, and NAM also hug the coast of south america. Seems like if Matt stays further south, ridge is stronger and he goes more west before the turn. I think the models will settle down in a few days when they get the gulf stream IV data sampling in them.

My thought was that the more westerly EC ensembles would all be with a weaker storm. However, that didn't turn out to be the case. I'm not sure why so many members are west of Florida.

Thanks for the explanation and the ensemble plot charts.

[Steve]

12Z JMA animation:
https://s21.postimg.org/pyr7wmy13/45d5d ... 80fee8.gif]

I'm curious to know the historic accuracy of this model.

I haven't looked at verification on it because I just started following it the last couple of years. It's like the rest of them in that it gets some things right. Its monthly/seasonal forecasts are respectable, and it's known to be very conservative with showing tropical genesis.

[wxmann_91]

12Z JMA animation:

JB used the JMA as one of his supports earlier today. Don't know enough about it to say how accurate it is though.

JMA is just about as useful as the CMC and NOGAPS. Maybe better than NAM, or the BAM suite, or LBAR. Not sure why JB is using the JMA.