ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1041 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:51 pm

One thing to keep an eye on - The GFS actually has this moving a little north of west from 12Z while the EC moves this due west during the next 24 hours. If it ends up only going due west, the GFS might shift its track slightly more west.

The ridge is going to be very strong north off the system for the next 3-4 days. It could easily lose quite a bit of latitude, more than what the GFS and some of the other models are showing.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:55 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1042 Postby JaxGator » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:55 pm

With Matthew slowing down as it has so far today and strengthening, it'll be trouble for the folks in (or maybe) in its path along with the other players that will determine where he goes. Praying the Islands don't have major flooding or damage but they're under the most intense T-Storms/convection.
Last edited by JaxGator on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1043 Postby Medtronic15 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:57 pm

JaxGator wrote:With Matthew slowing down as it has so far today and strengthening, it'll be trouble for the folks in (or maybe) in it's path along with the other players that will determine where he goes. Praying the Islands don't have major flooding or damage but they're under the most intense T-Storms/convection.


The key is (where he goes)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1044 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:00 pm

Okay, so apologies if I'm bothering anyone, but can someone summarize quickly the last 4 hours or so?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1045 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:02 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Okay, so apologies if I'm bothering anyone, but can someone summarize quickly the last 4 hours or so?


Radar shows increased organization and the low-level and mid-level centers are beginning to align.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1046 Postby pcolaman » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:One thing to keep an eye on - The GFS actually has this moving a little north of west from 12Z while the EC moves this due west during the next 24 hours. If it ends up only going due west, the GFS might shift its track slightly more west.

The ridge is going to be very strong north off the system for the next 3-4 days. It could easily lose quite a bit of latitude, more than what the GFS and some of the other models are showing.


I think if u look back at Ivan cone 5 days out and you will see how it was forcasted to go well east of Florida but look how long it took for it finally to turn nw then nnw. I am just speculating at the similarities.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1047 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:04 pm

I'm really starting to wonder if we're going to have another Erika here with the gross overestimation of the forecasts and underestimation of the unfavorable environment. The center is less organized than earlier and much further from the convection, indicating that despite the wind speed there is still plenty of tilt, and plenty of shear--models have been indicating very light shear over this as they did with Erika, and like Erika it's on the increase, as per CIMSS from 15 to 20kt over the last six hours, with the upper high seemingly burying itself over South America. I'm not buying the intensity forecasts as long as this is so sheared and tilted as it is.

wxmann_91 wrote:radar shows increased organization and the low-level and mid-level centers are beginning to align.


That appears to be due to altitude--we're seeing the MLC more as the system moves away from the radar site.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1048 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:09 pm

Hammy wrote:I'm really starting to wonder if we're going to have another Erika here with the gross overestimation of the forecasts and underestimation of the unfavorable environment. The center is less organized than earlier and much further from the convection, indicating that despite the wind speed there is still plenty of tilt, and plenty of shear--models have been indicating very light shear over this as they did with Erika, and like Erika it's on the increase, as per CIMSS from 15 to 20kt over the last six hours, with the upper high seemingly burying itself over South America. I'm not buying the intensity forecasts as long as this is so sheared and tilted as it is.

wxmann_91 wrote:radar shows increased organization and the low-level and mid-level centers are beginning to align.


That appears to be due to altitude--we're seeing the MLC more as the system moves away from the radar site.


Actually, in retrospect, you're correct. The satellite loops still show a bit of disorganization. It's probably still got 24-48 hours before it really goes off (assuming that the shear does indeed lift out, which models notoriously do too fast).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1049 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:13 pm

From the last vortex

Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)


Looks to me like the air might be drier than originally thought. I would expect a higher dew point in the center
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1050 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:15 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:From the last vortex

Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)


Looks to me like the air might be drier than originally thought. I would expect a higher dew point in the center


That's at 850 though.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1051 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:From the last vortex

Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)


Looks to me like the air might be drier than originally thought. I would expect a higher dew point in the center


That's at 850 though.


You'd still expect the air temp and dew point to be about the same no matter at which height in the center. They are measured at the same place
Dropsone data:
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1004mb (29.65 inHg) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 24.6°C (76°F) 80° (from the E) 4 knots (5 mph)
1000mb 38m (125 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 24.3°C (76°F) 85° (from the E) 4 knots (5 mph)
925mb 725m (2,379 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.1°C (70°F) 145° (from the SE) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 1,461m (4,793 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 15.6°C (60°F) 195° (from the SSW) 2 knots (2 mph)
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1052 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:22 pm

Hammy wrote:I'm really starting to wonder if we're going to have another Erika here with the gross overestimation of the forecasts and underestimation of the unfavorable environment.



What data are you looking at Hammy? I'm seeing slowly improving conditions.

Image

You can move the shear map over time and see how it's slowly improving. It's not the forecast near perfect environment yet, but it's also not the horrid conditions that existed earlier in the year.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

NHC Erika forecast, for those who forget.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1053 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:23 pm

Recon shows the circulation has become better defined throughout the day. Continued gradual strengthening is likely. We probably won't see anything too rapid until the centers align and an inner-core becomes established. Upper-level outflow looks excellent:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1054 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:One thing to keep an eye on - The GFS actually has this moving a little north of west from 12Z while the EC moves this due west during the next 24 hours. If it ends up only going due west, the GFS might shift its track slightly more west.

The ridge is going to be very strong north off the system for the next 3-4 days. It could easily lose quite a bit of latitude, more than what the GFS and some of the other models are showing.


According to the models this should start taking the SW dip in about 24 hours, it will be very interesting to see how far SW this dives. I remember Joaquin last year went much further SW then most models indicated initially.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1055 Postby psyclone » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:From the last vortex

Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)


Looks to me like the air might be drier than originally thought. I would expect a higher dew point in the center


That's at 850 though.


I would imagine surface dewpoints are mid/upper 70's.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1056 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:27 pm

Hammy wrote:I'm really starting to wonder if we're going to have another Erika here with the gross overestimation of the forecasts and underestimation of the unfavorable environment. The center is less organized than earlier and much further from the convection, indicating that despite the wind speed there is still plenty of tilt, and plenty of shear--models have been indicating very light shear over this as they did with Erika, and like Erika it's on the increase, as per CIMSS from 15 to 20kt over the last six hours, with the upper high seemingly burying itself over South America. I'm not buying the intensity forecasts as long as this is so sheared and tilted as it is.

wxmann_91 wrote:radar shows increased organization and the low-level and mid-level centers are beginning to align.


That appears to be due to altitude--we're seeing the MLC more as the system moves away from the radar site.

What in the world are you talking about? There is no sign of wind shear on water vapor animations, and the low and mid-level circulations look very close to being aligned on satellite. In fact, the flow over the storm is extremely divergent, which is what's fueling the large convective increase at the moment. Matthew is only steadily organizing because it's a) still in its formative stages (even storms in perfect environments take a while to take off) and b) it's moving a bit too fast. Rapid intensification is likely in the central Caribbean.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1057 Postby frederic79 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:28 pm

I think if u look back at Ivan cone 5 days out and you will see how it was forcasted to go well east of Florida but look how long it took for it finally to turn nw then nnw. I am just speculating at the similarities.[/quote]

I was looking at this earlier today. I also noticed they were both moving along a low latitude trajectory. I"m not sure if this made Ivan more immune to the effects of any troughs at the time or not, but it is interesting that they are in similar locations and that the original forcast called for Ivan to strike the east coast of FL and hug the coast all the way to SC/NC. Yes, forcasts have improved since then, but it's worth noting anyway.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1058 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:29 pm

tolakram wrote:
Hammy wrote:I'm really starting to wonder if we're going to have another Erika here with the gross overestimation of the forecasts and underestimation of the unfavorable environment.



What data are you looking at Hammy? I'm seeing slowly improving conditions.

Image

You can move the shear map over time and see how it's slowly improving. It's not the forecast near perfect environment yet, but it's also not the horrid conditions that existed earlier in the year.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

NHC Erika forecast, for those who forget.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml



That's over the last 24 hours though--it seems to be on the increase over the last 6-12 as the storm is moving slightly faster than the shear wall.

Image

Nine hours ago, note the upper high near the system, shear around 15-20kt.

Image

Current shear, around 20-25kt, with the upper high producing southwesterly flow. And my comparison with Erika was more model forecast vs actual conditions, rather than track forecast--Erika was dealing with high shear as the models continued to incorrectly show it to decrease allowing for intensification that never happened. Not necessarily saying this is guaranteed to be the same here, but it's looking like an increasing possibility at the moment.

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:What in the world are you talking about? There is no sign of wind shear on water vapor animations, and the low and mid-level circulations look very close to being aligned on satellite.


LLC is well southwest of the convection, and the chart shows the actual winds, not relative to movement. CIMSS analyzes 20-25kts of storm-relative shear from the southwest at the moment.
Last edited by Hammy on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1059 Postby Medtronic15 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:29 pm

Where he goes?

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1060 Postby ThetaE » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:32 pm

The drier (relatively speaking) air has been a consistent feature on all three recon flights so far, actually. I'd assume that the models are considering it then, though, and it doesn't appear to have slowed down Matthew too much so far, so I'm not sure if it will really end up being too much of a limiting factor. On the plus side, both inflow and outflow are looking very impressive.

Here's the lower level convergence.
Image

And the upper level divergence; note that this isn't aligned perfectly with the convergence (yet), but is instead slightly east.
Image
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