ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1061 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:37 pm

I wouldn't worry about dry air, once this gets a solid inner core established, rapid intensification is likely regardless.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1062 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:43 pm

Hammy wrote:LLC is well southwest of the convection, and the chart shows the actual winds, not relative to movement. CIMSS analyzes 20-25kts of storm-relative shear from the southwest at the moment.

Always better to look at satellite. The case for 20-25kt southwesterly shear can't be made when outflow is expanding to the west. The CIMSS map inaccurately analyzes the anticyclone over the coast of South America, when outflow expanding in all directions from the center suggests it's co-located.

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Last edited by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1063 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:43 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:I wouldn't worry about dry air, once this gets a solid inner core established, rapid intensification is likely regardless.


Wouldn't the dry air inhibit an inner core from establishing in the first place?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1064 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:44 pm

This shear is causing the convection to keep firing over the islands

I would not be surprised to hear that both Martinique and St. Lucia have had massive flooding. I expect impacts at least on par with Debby from 1994
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1065 Postby SouthernBreeze » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:47 pm

And wouldn't the storms size also make dry air less detrimental, as a larger storm creates it's own environment?
Last edited by SouthernBreeze on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1066 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:47 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
Hammy wrote:LLC is well southwest of the convection, and the chart shows the actual winds, not relative to movement. CIMSS analyzes 20-25kts of storm-relative shear from the southwest at the moment.

Always better to look at satellite. The case for 20-25kt southwesterly shear can't be made when outflow is expanding to the west. The CIMSS map inaccurately analyzes the anticyclone over the coast of South America, when outflow expanding in all directions from the center suggests it's co-located.


Satellite cannot always show relative shear, and it is certainly there as indicated by the last VDM being to the southwest of the convective ball, outside of it in fact.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1067 Postby tatertawt24 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:48 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
Hammy wrote:LLC is well southwest of the convection, and the chart shows the actual winds, not relative to movement. CIMSS analyzes 20-25kts of storm-relative shear from the southwest at the moment.

Always better to look at satellite. The case for 20-25kt southwesterly shear can't be made when outflow is expanding to the west. The CIMSS map inaccurately analyzes the anticyclone over the coast of South America, when outflow expanding in all directions from the center suggests it's co-located.

Image


Looks surprisingly healthy right now, but is that not the outflow ingesting dry air in the last few frames?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1068 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:56 pm

Wow Avila states "there will be some interesting days ahead as Matthew moves towards the central and western Caribbean Sea." That is for sure :eek:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1069 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:56 pm

http://www.stlucianewsonline.com/breaki ... s-matthew/

One death has been confirmed on St. Vincent
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1070 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:57 pm

Excerpt of 11 PM discussion:

Fixes from an Air Force plane indicate that Matthew is moving
toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge over the Atlantic is steering Matthew westward, and some
models even move the cyclone south of due west. Most of the guidance
is very consistent with this track during the next 48 hours. After
that time, guidance becomes more divergent, but in general, all
models turn the cyclone toward the northwest and north. Of the
historically reliable models, the westernmost track is the ECMWF
ensemble mean while the easternmost is the HWRF. The NHC track
forecast is in the middle of the TVCX and TVCN multi-model
consensus, and does not depart very much from the previous official
forecast.

There will be very interesting days ahead as Matthew moves toward
the central and western Caribbean Sea, and users are reminded that
the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180
and 240 miles, respectively.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1071 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:00 pm

Of course there is SW shear. It's up against an upper trough. That's one of the reasons for more intensification later. Also, some downsloping heat coming off the SA continent is unavoidable in this setup. No way does this have anything to do with prior 2016 systems, and anyone not a troll doubting the potential ought to reexamine what we are dealing with here.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1072 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:01 pm

I haven't seen future intensity brought up too much yet, which is understandable considering the foremost concerns over the track uncertainty, but potential intensity is rather high no matter which portion of the Caribbean Matthew tracks over. Basically the entirety of the Caribbean Sea north of 15*N and west of 70*W is sitting with at least 100 kJ/cm^2 of heat potential, which is somewhat ridiculous. The Caribbean Sea is actually more heat laden than the Philippine Sea right now, a rare occurrence. The maximum of heat content in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands is well above 100 kJ/cm^2 (and probably above 150 kJ/cm^2 if the scale went that high), and if the western members of guidance (about half of the EPS members, GFDL, and a number of the GEPS members) ended up verifying better, Matthew could track very close to this area. Even if not, Matthew could very well become a rather intense hurricane given the right atmospheric conditions.

Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1073 Postby JPmia » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow Avila states "there will be some interesting days ahead as Matthew moves towards the central and western Caribbean Sea." That is for sure :eek:


Is it me or is his discussion a little more interesting to read than usual? Ive always found him to be kind of a bland discussion writer.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1074 Postby tatertawt24 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:03 pm

JPmia wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Wow Avila states "there will be some interesting days ahead as Matthew moves towards the central and western Caribbean Sea." That is for sure :eek:


Is it me or is his discussion a little more interesting to read than usual? Ive always found him to be kind of a bland discussion writer.


Nah, wasn't he the one that wrote all those funny Epsilon discussions?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1075 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:04 pm

Alyono wrote:http://www.stlucianewsonline.com/breaking-news-deaths-reported-in-svg-from-ts-matthew/

One death has been confirmed on St. Vincent

This is already a dangerous storm. My heart goes out to anyone in the wake of its path.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1076 Postby CourierPR » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:11 pm

Chief Meteorologist Craig Setzer of WFOR TV Miami says that Matthew's future track is uncertain. That 90 degree turn depicted by some models looks highly suspicious to me.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1077 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:17 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I haven't seen future intensity brought up too much yet, which is understandable considering the foremost concerns over the track uncertainty, but potential intensity is rather high no matter which portion of the Caribbean Matthew tracks over. Basically the entirety of the Caribbean Sea north of 15*N and west of 70*W is sitting with at least 100 kJ/cm^2 of heat potential, which is somewhat ridiculous. The Caribbean Sea is actually more heat laden than the Philippine Sea right now, a rare occurrence. The maximum of heat content in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands is well above 100 kJ/cm^2 (and probably above 150 kJ/cm^2 if the scale went that high), and if the western members of guidance (about half of the EPS members, GFDL, and a number of the GEPS members) ended up verifying better, Matthew could track very close to this area. Even if not, Matthew could very well become a rather intense hurricane given the right atmospheric conditions.

Image


that is the main reason why cat 4 or 5 is a certainty. Once the shear drops off, this should intensify very rapidly
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1078 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:21 pm

71kts FL winds just found by recon on the NE side of the center. I expect the centers to align and organize better tonight with this beginning a steady strengthening phase tomorrow afternoon. This could be very scary for those in the future path like Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, etc.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1079 Postby centuryv58 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:22 pm

CourierPR wrote:Chief Meteorologist Craig Setzer of WFOR TV Miami says that Matthew's future track is uncertain. That 90 degree turn depicted by some models looks highly suspicious to me.


That sharp turn has been puzzling me all along too. Maybe its a numerical (as opposed to a dynamical) model response to something it sees--or a bad response to something it cannot handle.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1080 Postby rickybobby » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:22 pm

As of the 11 pm update on wesh 2 they said the spaghetti models are closer to Florida than they were earlier in the day. It's all going to depend on the cold front coming on Sunday. If it sticks it will push Matthew to the north.
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