ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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La Sirena
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1261 Postby La Sirena » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:15 am

psyclone wrote:I must also raise a toast to Hammy for a great call last night on the shear. the system looked great but was poorly organized with the center on the southwest side of the convective ball. There's been an awful lot of flaming/unwarranted blowback on lately on posters who aren't as bullish on a storm or simply state that the risk for a given area is low or decreasing. that is unfortunate and benefits no one. On that same note we've got a two-fer for Florida folks...the risk appears low and has been decreasing. Naturally that does not mean there is no risk. that's why we watch forecasts evolve. but there's nothing wrong with stating the current scene and trends. happy watching.

I agree about Hammy's call. It really was spot on.

Yes, the flaming and meteorological pissing contests have been frustrating. That coupled with the super long term prediction arguments has been a bit of the bummer---I know, I'm new here and it happens often lol. But, I'm just surprised not to see more level-headed approaches to the long term trends and forecasts. I reckon everyone wants to grab a little fame and be "first" to accurately call it. :grrr:

I have no problem with the discussion of current trends and forecasts....just a turn off on the long term speculation stuff. Thx for the reply!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1262 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:15 am

gfs is also farther west this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1263 Postby La Sirena » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:17 am

Aric Dunn wrote:gfs is also farther west this run.

Interesting!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1264 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:18 am

Aric Dunn wrote:gfs is also farther west this run.

Indeed it is. I'm plugged in until this is gone..(which looks to be awhile).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1265 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:21 am

outer banks landfall with ridging to the north vs last time with a trough. so it switched the what the euro did last night ..
interesting they keep bouncing back and forth. wonder how much its current exposed circ will change anything.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1266 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:28 am

Aric Dunn wrote:outer banks landfall with ridging to the north vs last time with a trough. so it switched the what the euro did last night ..
interesting they keep bouncing back and forth. wonder how much its current exposed circ will change anything.


NC/VA landfall is what I have been afraid will occur from the beginning.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1267 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:28 am

nbc met miami...good twitter follow.no nonsense, no hype..he called the west shift yesterday afternoon, will see if it verifies


JohnMoralesNBC65 mins
GFS trends W & slow each run. Near Nassau Tue evening vs near Exuma Mon evening. That’s 150 miles W & 24 hours late…
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1268 Postby centuryv58 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:31 am

jlauderdal wrote:nbc met miami...good twitter follow.no nonsense, no hype..he called the west shift yesterday afternoon, will see if it verifies


JohnMoralesNBC65 mins
GFS trends W & slow each run. Near Nassau Tue evening vs near Exuma Mon evening. That’s 150 miles W & 24 hours late…


Slow mind torture for the next few days here. Hope the NE slam does not verify either.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1269 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:31 am

jlauderdal wrote:nbc met miami...good twitter follow.no nonsense, no hype..he called the west shift yesterday afternoon, will see if it verifies


JohnMoralesNBC65 mins
GFS trends W & slow each run. Near Nassau Tue evening vs near Exuma Mon evening. That’s 150 miles W & 24 hours late…


CMC also shifted way west through day 4...Florida by no means in the "all clear" yet.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1270 Postby centuryv58 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:32 am

gatorcane wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:nbc met miami...good twitter follow.no nonsense, no hype..he called the west shift yesterday afternoon, will see if it verifies


JohnMoralesNBC65 mins
GFS trends W & slow each run. Near Nassau Tue evening vs near Exuma Mon evening. That’s 150 miles W & 24 hours late…


CMC also shifted way west through day 4...Florida by no means in the "all clear" yet.


FL will only be in the clear once the storm is 200 miles north of me :D
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1271 Postby CourierPR » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:33 am

Perhaps the west shifts will continue?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1272 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:35 am

gatorcane wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:nbc met miami...good twitter follow.no nonsense, no hype..he called the west shift yesterday afternoon, will see if it verifies


JohnMoralesNBC65 mins
GFS trends W & slow each run. Near Nassau Tue evening vs near Exuma Mon evening. That’s 150 miles W & 24 hours late…


CMC also shifted way west through day 4...Florida by no means in the "all clear" yet.

euro had that thumb ridge a couple of days ago, lets see if that makes a return...24 hours ago it popped up a low out of nowhere
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1273 Postby bg1 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:38 am

Strange how potential US threats (including Hawaii!) have been very hard to forecast for the past two-three years.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1274 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:43 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1275 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:50 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Slightly off topic. The Washington Post printed a story yesterday that compared Matthew to Hazel because of it's forecast path. This has done nothing but to heighten fear and anxiety here along the SE NC coast, where Hazel literally left only one house standing. I know that they will say that they run these stories to inform the public, but it just seems like fear-mongering to me.


I've heard nobody mention Matthew here. The Hazel thing was due to prior runs showing a very similar track, I guess they need some space to fill in the newspapers?

Hazel annihilated every south-facing beach from the Little River to the Cape Fear River...except Sunset Beach. Why that is I don't know.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1276 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:50 am

Image
Maybe just S of W...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1277 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:53 am

Pressures continue to drop 994mb.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1278 Postby TimeZone » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:54 am

Shear has taken one hell of a toll on little Matthew. Yikes that is one hideous storm. I'm not surprised.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1279 Postby ronyan » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:56 am

TimeZone wrote:Shear has taken one hell of a toll on little Matthew. Yikes that is one hideous storm. I'm not surprised.


Yet the pressure is dropping some, doesn't seem to be struggling too much.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1280 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:00 pm

While the shear isn't lessening any the air seems a bit more moist than yesterday and last night, given the large bands forming to the north and convection attempting to wrap closer to the center. Anybody have the VDMs for the dew point/humidity?
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