ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Maybe just S of W...


From 11am Disco...

Matt not predicted to lose latitude until tomorrow and closing in on 68W, the 11pm tonight mark... Maybe these little adjustments are what we see in the modeling... 50 miles here and there matter...

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

LLC is directly under the convection right now, shear doesn't look that bad when compared with Lisa, Julia, Karl and Ian.

[gatorcane]

looks to be losing some latitude to me

[1900hurricane]

Convection is re-firing over the center. Overall, I'd say the system is better stacked than 12 hours ago, even with the center briefly becoming exposed earlier. It remains to be seen if the convection can continue to remain over the storm's center, but I'm somewhat bullish about short term intensity.

[Evil Jeremy]

Shear has taken one hell of a toll on little Matthew. Yikes that is one hideous storm. I'm not surprised.

Much better than Colin ever looked.

[mrbagyo]

It's almost off this loop but you can see a new convective burst and tops expanding to the SW in the last hour.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=yellow

non-CONUS loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-66&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Could be an early sign of CDO formation?

[Hurricaneman]

The northern part of Columbia especially that cape may need to watch this as I coud see TS warnings and maybe Hurricane watches there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Hurricaneman]

According to recon I believe we have a hurricane right now

[ThetaE]

Latest HDOB shows hurricane-force winds in the NW quadrant of Matthew. Upgrade at 2 PM?

[LarryWx]

Thanks. Great question. Yes, Matthew appears to be an outlier vs most analog tracks. That's why I have the CONUS hit chance at 33% rather than 5%. Looking at these analogs, the ones that were at or south of 15N between 70-75W were as follows:

1) #7 of 1892: S http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
2) #5 of 1895: R (just missed SE FL) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
3) #14 of 1932***: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
4) Hazel of 1954***: H on NC http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
5) Tomas of 2010***: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

So, one of these 5 hit the CONUS and one other just missed SE FL. So, 2 of the 5 (40%) were at least a threat to the CONUS. Also, note that the other one that barely missed SE FL, #9 of 1898, traveled only barely north of 15N between 70 and 75W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

So, if #9 of 1898 were included, that would make 3 of 6 (50%) that were at least a threat to the CONUS.

Wow!? Throw in 1898, and i'd say these are some pretty good analogues systems. 1895 and 1954 seem to best fit present scenario as depicted by present models and/or forecast. Unfortunately, these analogies exclude what i'm guessing to be a number of storms that entered the Gulf and made landfall anywhere from Texas, east to Florida. Those storms would have likely represented those years where perhaps a storm "formed" near or south of 15N and from 70-75W with a good number of them likely tracking northwest. Genesis aside, these storms might equally serve as a reasonable analogous comparison as well.

1) I just looked and found, believe it or not, not one TC on record that formed during the interval Sep. 25- Oct. 31 south of 15N between 65 and 75W.

2) I just took another look at all of the years and I inadvertently left off three storms, meaning 25 analogs instead of 22. One of these 3 is actually the only Gulf coast hit of the 25, #6 of 1879:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The other two consist of a hit south of the CONUS and one that dissipated over open water:

- #4 of 1876 hit south of the CONUS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
- Judith of 1966 dissipated over open water: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Therefore, I'll be updating the two posts related to this for the purpose of accuracy. It doesn't change things too much from we've discussed.

[OntarioEggplant]

This is probably going to be upgraded to a hurricane at 2 PM. Impressive how Matthew is strengthening with an exposed center. Reminds me of Earl 1998, albeit with a different trajectory.

[TimeZone]

Shear has taken one hell of a toll on little Matthew. Yikes that is one hideous storm. I'm not surprised.

Much better than Colin ever looked.

That's like bragging about being a midget in a room full of dwarfs.

[hipshot]

This is probably going to be upgraded to a hurricane at 2 PM. Impressive how Matthew is strengthening with an exposed center. Reminds me of Earl 1998, albeit with a different trajectory.

It doesn't look like the center is exposed any longer, looks more like it is back under the convection.

[galaxy401]

Shear has taken one hell of a toll on little Matthew. Yikes that is one hideous storm. I'm not surprised.

Recon says otherwise. Shear isn't hitting Matthew too hard, and it's still strengthening.

[Hurricaneman]

Shear has taken one hell of a toll on little Matthew. Yikes that is one hideous storm. I'm not surprised.

Recon says otherwise. Shear isn't hitting Matthew to hard, and it's still strengthening.

and it also looks like we finally have a CDO

[alienstorm]

NOAA’s G-IV is ready to fly a synoptic surveillance mission around Tropical Storm Matthew takes off at 1:30 PM

[cycloneye]

Latest VDM: Pressure down to 993 mbs.

URNT12 KNHC 291714
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016
A. 29/16:43:00Z
B. 14 deg 10 min N
066 deg 42 min W
C. 850 mb 1374 m
D. 40 kt
E. 213 deg 13 nm
F. 295 deg 45 kt
G. 207 deg 8 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 20 C / 1529 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 0414A MATTHEW OB 19
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 76 KT 045 / 56 NM 17:01:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 035 / 4 KT
;

[JaxGator]

Even on the rainbow loop (yes I use it lot because of easy access), there is glint of white in addition to the other bright colors/intense thunderstorms. Bet Recon is having a heck of a ride in those winds.

[chaser1]

Wow!? Throw in 1898, and i'd say these are some pretty good analogues systems. 1895 and 1954 seem to best fit present scenario as depicted by present models and/or forecast. Unfortunately, these analogies exclude what i'm guessing to be a number of storms that entered the Gulf and made landfall anywhere from Texas, east to Florida. Those storms would have likely represented those years where perhaps a storm "formed" near or south of 15N and from 70-75W with a good number of them likely tracking northwest. Genesis aside, these storms might equally serve as a reasonable analogous comparison as well.

1) I just looked and found, believe it or not, not one TC on record that formed during the interval Sep. 25- Oct. 31 south of 15N between 65 and 75W.

2) I just took another look at all of the years and I inadvertently left off three storms, meaning 25 analogs instead of 22. One of these 3 is actually the only Gulf coast hit of the 25, #6 of 1879:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The other two consist of a hit south of the CONUS and one that dissipated over open water:

- #4 of 1876 hit south of the CONUS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
- Judith of 1966 dissipated over open water: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Therefore, I'll be updating the two posts related to this for the purpose of accuracy. It doesn't change things too much from we've discussed.

Amazing and surprising, huh?? Especially considering how many October storms hit Florida over all of those years? Guess it just goes to show that for at least Florida to have gotten hit, it must have required a storm to form WEST of 75W and NORTH of 15N (essentially north of Honduras and east of Yucatan/Belize); call it "the deadly square" lol. For some reason I had thought that tracks might have come from points south and east of there.

[Blown Away]

Latest VDM: Pressure down to 993 mbs.

URNT12 KNHC 291714
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016
A. 29/16:43:00Z
B. 14 deg 10 min N
066 deg 42 min W
C. 850 mb 1374 m
D. 40 kt
E. 213 deg 13 nm
F. 295 deg 45 kt
G. 207 deg 8 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 20 C / 1529 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 0414A MATTHEW OB 19
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 76 KT 045 / 56 NM 17:01:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 035 / 4 KT
;[/b][/quote]

Losing latitude ahead of schedule?