ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The 5 pm advisory will be interesting

Go to the Advisories thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118367&p=2546993#p2546993

[abajan]

Convection really bombing. Should be interesting to see how it evolves overnight:

[jlauderdal]

Peak intensity is up to 90kts at 5 PM.

72H 02/1800Z 15.7N 75.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.6N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

laughably too low.

You're telling me that over waters with heat content higher than the Philippine Sea with less than 10 kts of shear, this is not going to rapidly intensify?

Only way that happens is if the shear forecasts are wrong. That is possible as they have already been wrong once. But if the shear decreases as NHC says, this will explode

You predicting RI?

[Alyono]

Peak intensity is up to 90kts at 5 PM.

72H 02/1800Z 15.7N 75.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.6N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

laughably too low.

You're telling me that over waters with heat content higher than the Philippine Sea with less than 10 kts of shear, this is not going to rapidly intensify?

Only way that happens is if the shear forecasts are wrong. That is possible as they have already been wrong once. But if the shear decreases as NHC says, this will explode

You predicting RI?

if the shear drops on Sunday as it should, this is a shoe in to rapidly intensify, or perhaps even explosively intensify

[Dean4Storms]

This is way ahead of the forecast points to this point, Mathew better slow down soon or it is going to be much further west before that ridge begins to erode.

[Ken711]

This is way ahead of the forecast points to this point, Mathew better slow down soon or it is going to be much further west before that ridge begins to erode.

What would the longer track implications be?

[SouthFLTropics]

Tonight's overnight hours are going to be very interesting in regards to model watching and actual storm watching. The development trend upward in strength is eye opening. Business is definitely picking up!!!

[Raebie]

This is way ahead of the forecast points to this point, Mathew better slow down soon or it is going to be much further west before that ridge begins to erode.

What would the longer track implications be?

My guess would be Florida would possibly be in play and a definite threat to the EC.

[FireRat]

That is scary as heck Alyono!

About the pressure everyone, I think it could be higher than usual due to the lower latitude maybe? I think the same happened with Haiyan in 2013 who had insane winds but a pressure not as low as other weaker windwise typhoons.

[Ken711]

What was the strongest hurricane to track up the Atlantic coastline this time of year?

[psyclone]

Say what you will about the models lurching around...one thing that isn't lurching around so much is the NHC's official track. It has consistently implied a substantial threat to Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas. It reminds me very much of Hermine which also was fairly consistent despite all the noise. It would also seem to continue to imply a very low risk to Florida at this point in time.

[jlauderdal]

Say what you will about the models lurching around...one thing that isn't lurching around so much is the NHC's official track. It has consistently implied a substantial threat to Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas. It reminds me very much of Hermine which also was fairly consistent despite all the noise. It would also seem to continue to imply a very low risk to Florida at this point in time.

the the easy part is through sunday/monday so no reason for them to deviate too much..intensity forecast as always is much more difficult even through 5 days

[Dean4Storms]

This is way ahead of the forecast points to this point, Mathew better slow down soon or it is going to be much further west before that ridge begins to erode.

What would the longer track implications be?

The turn would occur further west which begins to put FL into play on its northward track. Remember to this point models have been forecasting the ridge to its north without Recon Flight Obs being fed into them extending only to about where their current solutions turn it north. If Mathew continues past that general consensus of the turn it would mean the Ridge extends further Westward than the models calculated, a possibility!

[AtlanticWind]

Say what you will about the models lurching around...one thing that isn't lurching around so much is the NHC's official track. It has consistently implied a substantial threat to Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas. It reminds me very much of Hermine which also was fairly consistent despite all the noise. It would also seem to continue to imply a very low risk to Florida at this point in time.

They hurricane center pointed out in Their discussion that the 72 to 120 hour forecasts are subject to error. A possible threat to
Florida is in the 140 hour area ,too early yet to assess the risk .

[Raebie]

This is way ahead of the forecast points to this point, Mathew better slow down soon or it is going to be much further west before that ridge begins to erode.

What would the longer track implications be?

The turn would occur further west which begins to put FL into play on its northward track. Remember to this point models have been forecasting the ridge to its north without Recon Flight Obs being fed into them extending only to about where their current solutions turn it north. If Mathew continues past that general consensus of the turn it would mean the Ridge extends further Westward than the models calculated, a possibility!

I was right!! What do I win?

[jlauderdal]

This is way ahead of the forecast points to this point, Mathew better slow down soon or it is going to be much further west before that ridge begins to erode.

What would the longer track implications be?

My guess would be Florida would possibly be in play and a definite threat to the EC.

it wouldnt take much more ridging to push the system into the usa per the current gfs and euro...nobody is off the hook...if you asked the nhc to make a 7 day forecast they would be in the central bahamas and the usa is well within that error rate

[Bailey1777]

Question, Matthew is moving at 17 mph and is supposed to keep west or just south of west for the next 48 hours..that would put it 817 miles west of where it is now, can somebody with the tools show where this would be on the map please.

[abajan]

Question, Matthew is moving at 17 mph and is supposed to keep west or just south of west for the next 48 hours..that would put it 817 miles west of where it is now, can somebody with the tools show where this would be on the map please.

It would be 817 miles west of its current location if it kept moving at 17 mph, which isn't necessarily the case.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the 5pm track is just an update of the 11am track, they are east of the 18z consensus models. I guess they are going to wait and see if this westward shift sticks before tweaking the track closer to or over Jamaica.

[snowpocalypse]

Question, Matthew is moving at 17 mph and is supposed to keep west or just south of west for the next 48 hours..that would put it 817 miles west of where it is now, can somebody with the tools show where this would be on the map please.

NHC forecast 48H is 13.7N 73.7W