ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Southern periphery looks like drier air is getting into the storm off the mountains along the Venezuela Coast. Notice the cloud tops warming as well.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I surfed Floyd at New Smyrna. We ran inside every half hour to make sure it was gunna turn. Boy it got close. I'm 31 now so that would have been at the young age of 14.

I sat through Floyd in my bar in Wilmington, NC, and watched the corner of the roof slowly pull up off of the cinder block wall. That was about the most scared I have been in a storm. Luckily, my staff was camped out with me making sure that someone drank all of the draft beer before it went bad.

[Frank2]

Looking at the WV loop, the surrounding environment is really not very favorable - look at the shear to the west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif

[tolakram]

Looking at the WV loop, the surrounding environment is really not very favorable - look at the shear to the west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif

Right now that's helping to vent the storm though, out in front and in the correct direction. If Matthew slows down it will allow that area of shear to move away even further, I think.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Come on matthew, take a hard turn west across central america and up the baja peninsula and dump like 30inches of rain here in SoCal. We bone dry and running out of water lol

[T'Bonz]

If that Hurricane Bingo card was a football pool instead,I'd take King Euro for the win!

[NDG]

Latest recon pass just a couple of minutes ago suggests that pressure continues to drop down a couple of more mb.

[Blown Away]

No analogs for Matt... I guess anything is possible...

[Aric Dunn]

per recon center appears to have migrated/moved to the SW from last pass likely do the recent convection. likely a temporary motion.

[ThetaE]

Come on matthew, take a hard turn west across central america and up the baja peninsula and dump like 30inches of rain here in SoCal. We bone dry and running out of water lol

Going for the long shot, huh?

[ronjon]

Anyone down to play?

http://i.imgur.com/uQQqWKT.png

Most people know what I'm going with here.

Hahaha...was that created from storm2K posts in the last hour!

[NDG]

Unflagged 70 knot SFMR

011730 1418N 06837W 6959 03039 9875 +124 +100 051050 053 070 009 00

[ThetaE]

Seems recon just had some trouble finding the center, but it looks like the pressure dropped some to ~983 (likely a bit too low, because it's extrapolated).

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Come on matthew, take a hard turn west across central america and up the baja peninsula and dump like 30inches of rain here in SoCal. We bone dry and running out of water lol

Going for the long shot, huh?

Haha yup desperate times calls for desperate measures. This state would be throwing a party if we had somethig like this come barreling.

[txwatcher91]

Unflagged 70 knot SFMR

011730 1418N 06837W 6959 03039 9875 +124 +100 051050 053 070 009 00

Yeah but with only 53kts FL I would say that will be thrown out.

[NDG]

Unflagged 70 knot SFMR

011730 1418N 06837W 6959 03039 9875 +124 +100 051050 053 070 009 00

Yeah but with only 53kts FL I would say that will be thrown out.

It looks to have gotten stronger.

011800 1420N 06838W 6965 03037 9873 +127 +104 053052 054 077 010 00
011830 1421N 06839W 6967 03045 9890 +123 +099 057058 062 074 010 00
011900 1422N 06841W 6969 03047 9929 +121 +121 055059 069 077 027 03
011930 1424N 06842W 6973 03055 9952 +120 +120 048069 076 068 034 03
012000 1425N 06843W 6961 03076 9952 +111 +111 050065 067 071 013 03

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data I would go with an intensity of 75 kt, with a pressure of 983.

[Yellow Evan]

Old FL/SFMR ratio seems to have changed very quickly, which makes sense given the pressure drop indicating a change of structure. Near 100% FL ratio is also typical of a storm about to RI.

[NDG]

Just like forecasted by the models it has been moving south of due west this evening, it should continue through the day tomorrow.

[JaxGator]

Just like forecasted by the models it has been moving south of due west this evening, it should continue through the day tomorrow.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... kcqrox.gif

And the center/eyewall looks more defined and intense. Or, it looks that way because it's more in range.