ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

Last year, all the models (except the EC) were indicating that Joaquin would strike the East U.S. Coast. Once the G-IV data were ingested into the model runs (Wednesday night) the track forecasts changed dramatically to offshore vs. a U.S. landfall. Hopefully, tonight's G-IV data will have a similar effect in consolidating the model forecasts.

When will the data start reaching the models?

The 0z model runs will have it

[Blown Away]

I'm still not seeing anything to indicate that there is a significant risk to Florida. If anything, I see less risk to Florida now than 24 hours ago. However, I won't give Florida the "all-clear" until the northward motion begins on Sunday, assuming there is good model agreement on a track through the central Bahamas and the steering currents become better-established. For now, my forecast has it moving through the Bahamas east of Andros Island (over Eleuthra) then northward, possibly coming close to the OB of NC but with a slightly better-than-not chance of missing landfall there.

Last year, all the models (except the EC) were indicating that Joaquin would strike the East U.S. Coast. Once the G-IV data were ingested into the model runs (Wednesday night) the track forecasts changed dramatically to offshore vs. a U.S. landfall. Hopefully, tonight's G-IV data will have a similar effect in consolidating the model forecasts.

Eluthera only @250 miles from Miami... Wow, that's confidence 6+ days out...

[BobHarlem]

We'll probably have a visible eye by the morning, there's already a hint of it on the rainbow IR sat.

[JaxGator]

I think it's safe to say that with the recent pressure drops, Matthew is rapidly intensifing right now or is starting to.

[O Town]

Looks like Matthew is smiling at us.

[pcolaman]

It continues its WSW track tonight, notice that every once in a while radar is detecting a couple of lightning near its eye.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... voc54j.gif

Could you post a link to this radar site ?

[fci]

New Levi video:
https://youtu.be/LPp3KoEpxZU

If I am hearing correctly, Levi says that the longer it takes the better chance Matthew will NOT go out to sea
On Mark Sudduth's video he said the longer it takes the better chance to GO out to sea.

[NDG]

It continues its WSW track tonight, notice that every once in a while radar is detecting a couple of lightning near its eye.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... voc54j.gif

Could you post a link to this radar site ?

http://www.meteo.cw/rad_still_ppi.php?L ... CC&Sws=R11

[Bocadude85]

Well, maybe these are not great effects, but Accuweather.com Pro Mets think this is what is in store for SE FL:

Previous 5 DaysNext 5 Days

THU

OCT 6
86° /75°
Windy with t-storms possible
More

FRI
OCT 7
88° /74°F
Very windy; t-storms possible

SAT

OCT 8
88° /73°
Very windy; a thunderstorm
More
Daily
Hourly
Morning
Afternoon
Evening
Overnight
DAY

88°HI
RealFeel® 89°
Precipitation 35%
Very windy; variable clouds with a couple of showers and thunderstorms possible
NE 39 mph
Gusts: 70 mph

Max UV Index: 7 (High)
Thunderstorms: 35%
Precipitation: 0 in
Rain: 0 in
Snow: 0 in
Ice: 0 in
Hours of Precipitation: 0 hrs
Hours of Rain: 0 hrs
NIGHT

74°LO
RealFeel® 69°
Precipitation 5%
Very windy; partly cloudy
E 47 mph
Gusts: 81 mph

Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorms: 0%
Precipitation: 0 in
Rain: 0 in
Snow: 0 in
Ice: 0 in
Hours of Precipitation: 0 hrs
Hours of Rain: 0 hrs

I wouldn't bet on those wind forecasts verifying. I'd say max gusts 25-30 mph. Maybe slightly higher in the occasional passing squall.

[Ken711]

New Levi video:
https://youtu.be/LPp3KoEpxZU

If I am hearing correctly, Levi says that the longer it takes the better chance Matthew will NOT go out to sea
On Mark Sudduth's video he said the longer it takes the better chance to GO out to sea.

I'm confused as well.

[pcolaman]

It continues its WSW track tonight, notice that every once in a while radar is detecting a couple of lightning near its eye.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... voc54j.gif

Could you post a link to this radar site ?

http://www.meteo.cw/rad_still_ppi.php?L ... CC&Sws=R11

Thanks

[NDG]

SW quadrant has gotten stronger.

22830 1353N 06859W 6969 03071 9948 +101 +078 307059 060 065 010 00
022900 1354N 06857W 6972 03056 9919 +117 +071 304064 067 066 012 03
022930 1355N 06855W 6968 03055 9954 +104 +101 315049 066 061 012 03

[jlauderdal]

New Levi video:
https://youtu.be/LPp3KoEpxZU

If I am hearing correctly, Levi says that the longer it takes the better chance Matthew will NOT go out to sea
On Mark Sudduth's video he said the longer it takes the better chance to GO out to sea.

thats the rub and why its so uncertain, unknown how much ridging builds ..it can easily go either way and i dont think.the g4 mission provides any clarity to that question..its to far out in time

[NotoSans]

I am afraid the NHC intensity forecast will bust if they continue to rely heavily on the SHIPS model or the IVCN consensus. Matthew is developing a inner core and I won't be surprised to see this rapidly intensifying once the shear drops.

[TheProfessor]

New Levi video:
https://youtu.be/LPp3KoEpxZU

If I am hearing correctly, Levi says that the longer it takes the better chance Matthew will NOT go out to sea
On Mark Sudduth's video he said the longer it takes the better chance to GO out to sea.

Bernie Rayno said the same thing as Mark, he said due to the low in the Gulf being further north on the GFS it will allow the storm to accelerate north faster, which would put the EC more at risk if it moves fast enough where weakness has yet to form, whereas he says the Euro's solution would be less likely to impact the EC because the slower movement would allow for weakness in the Bermuda high to form and lift the system ENE. However he did say that since the overall pattern isn't set yet the Euro's solution could still lead to a U.S impact.

[1900hurricane]

Microwave shows there is still a little bit of northward tilt wrt height. As of 2250Z, 37 GHz imagery showed the low level center a little further south of the higher level center shown on 91 GHz imagery.

[NDG]

I was just looking at the HR 18z GFS, it did fairly well in Matthew strengthening tonight, it shows to continue doing so tomorrow but not as fast.

[blazess556]

Much tighter, symmetrical core in Matthew during latest recon pass compared to the previous one a little over an hour ago.

[cycloneye]

...HURRICANE MATTHEW STRENGTHENING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 68.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF CURACAO
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[SapphireSea]

New Levi video:
https://youtu.be/LPp3KoEpxZU

If I am hearing correctly, Levi says that the longer it takes the better chance Matthew will NOT go out to sea
On Mark Sudduth's video he said the longer it takes the better chance to GO out to sea.

I'm confused as well.

I can't speak for these mets but I assume the following:

I believe it's the two schools of thought regarding the overall pattern. Mark likely assumes that a slower movement will allow a gradual pull of the storm poleward just enough for the next trough to pick it up or a new weakness to form to the east. Levi might be considering that if it slows this far south the troughs may not be able to pick it up. If it slows above 20N it is likely more than not to go out to sea. If it slows under 15n then a chance may exist where some impact on the US is possible.