ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[chaser1]

I smell landfall. Definitely a little bit of a shift west on this run. Any reason to assume that additional data from the G-IV flight might not have been ingested into this model yet, but might add to additional variances on the 6Z run?

[SeGaBob]

Really, anything beyond this timestamp is fantasy.

Most interesting points to take from this run:
*GFS continues to trend slower.
*First trough trends weaker.
*Probably major impacts for Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

I couldn't agree less... 5 days is not fantasy

[Blown Away]

Generally a slight W of N movement from Jamaica to N of the Bahamas seems to be the common theme... The turn near Jamaica is critical IMO, if Matt goes along W side of Jamaica that will put E coast of Florida in the path... JMHO only...

[toad strangler]

Really, anything beyond this timestamp is fantasy.

Most interesting points to take from this run:
*GFS continues to trend slower.
*First trough trends weaker.
*Probably major impacts for Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

I couldn't agree less... 5 days is not fantasy

When you are talking about 100 miles and less it sure as hell can be. Especially in this difficult setting.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Really, anything beyond this timestamp is fantasy.

Most interesting points to take from this run:
*GFS continues to trend slower.
*First trough trends weaker.
*Probably major impacts for Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

I couldn't agree less... 5 days is not fantasy

The GFS and Euro have varied wildly beyond 5 days. There are too many factors at play.

[p1nheadlarry]

A 923 mb hurricane within a stone's throw of my location is unheard of, I hope

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I could not agree more, with each new run you expect some what more agreement, but as of yet not seeing it.

[SeGaBob]

Looks to miss the U.S again. Good thing because it looked like a cat 4.

[LarryWx]

UKMET says COLUMBIA, then Haiti, before turning to the NW

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2016 0 14.3N 68.2W 990 63
1200UTC 30.09.2016 12 13.2N 70.3W 993 54
0000UTC 01.10.2016 24 12.7N 71.3W 992 53
1200UTC 01.10.2016 36 12.5N 71.7W 994 50
0000UTC 02.10.2016 48 13.1N 72.5W 991 52
1200UTC 02.10.2016 60 13.7N 73.6W 989 50
0000UTC 03.10.2016 72 15.3N 74.2W 981 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 84 16.6N 74.5W 978 64
0000UTC 04.10.2016 96 18.0N 73.7W 978 53
1200UTC 04.10.2016 108 19.6N 73.1W 985 58
0000UTC 05.10.2016 120 20.8N 73.1W 985 54
1200UTC 05.10.2016 132 21.5N 73.8W 989 54
0000UTC 06.10.2016 144 22.4N 74.7W 984 56

So, the UKMET continues to have large changes from run to run. This one is about 200 miles ENE of the prior run.

[p1nheadlarry]

I could not agree more, with each new run you expect some what more agreement, but as of yet not seeing it.

We'll have more data and a new ECMWF run soon, it'll get there

[Blown Away]

Couldn't design a run any better to miss the entire SE CONUS than the 00z GFS...

[MWatkins]

Seems unrealistic that it would get so far south so quickly, but does it suggest the ridge to the north is stronger than previously modeled - and will be a little slower/harder to break down maybe?

MW

UKMET says COLUMBIA, then Haiti, before turning to the NW

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2016 0 14.3N 68.2W 990 63
1200UTC 30.09.2016 12 13.2N 70.3W 993 54
0000UTC 01.10.2016 24 12.7N 71.3W 992 53
1200UTC 01.10.2016 36 12.5N 71.7W 994 50
0000UTC 02.10.2016 48 13.1N 72.5W 991 52
1200UTC 02.10.2016 60 13.7N 73.6W 989 50
0000UTC 03.10.2016 72 15.3N 74.2W 981 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 84 16.6N 74.5W 978 64
0000UTC 04.10.2016 96 18.0N 73.7W 978 53
1200UTC 04.10.2016 108 19.6N 73.1W 985 58
0000UTC 05.10.2016 120 20.8N 73.1W 985 54
1200UTC 05.10.2016 132 21.5N 73.8W 989 54
0000UTC 06.10.2016 144 22.4N 74.7W 984 56

[MississippiWx]

Bad trend for Florida/East Coast tonight. First set of drosonde data is significant. We may not know the 500mb pattern very well past 3 days still, but what the new data may have revealed is that Matt will be a good bit slower to leave the Caribbean than guidance has been showing. This is significant down the road as trofs lift out and ridge rebuilds from the east and north. Interesting to watch the Gulf trof steadily forecast to be weaker by the models...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

MW great to see you here been a long time, what is your take on all this.

[sponger]

Bad trend for Florida/East Coast tonight. First set of drops once data is significant. We may not know the 500mb pattern very well past 3 days still, but what the new data may have revealed is that Matt will be a good bit slower to leave the Caribbean than guidance has been showing. This is significant down the road as trofs lift out and ridge rebuilds from the east and north. Interesting to watch the Gulf trof steadily forecast to be weaker by the models...

Yep, not just being the GFS, but the first and only global model to have a lot of the new data in.

[chaser1]

Well, looks like the Outer Banks might be spared on this run after all.

So general take away's is a touch more west this run. UK appearing to be bringing Matthew to near Andros Island as well. I think the most important point here is how the GFS moves the storm out of the S. Caribbean in a couple of days. No longer a sudden sharp north turn but a more realistic NW (or NNW) motion. That nearer term motion is more key to all things here than anything else. A track perhaps 2 or 3 degrees further west, or simply a northwest motion to just west of Jamaica might have big implication for areas such as Pompano to Jupiter in Florida as well as the N. Carolina coastline.

[Alyono]

Bad trend for Florida/East Coast tonight. First set of drops once data is significant. We may not know the 500mb pattern very well past 3 days still, but what the new data may have revealed is that Matt will be a good bit slower to leave the Caribbean than guidance has been showing. This is significant down the road as trofs lift out and ridge rebuilds from the east and north. Interesting to watch the Gulf trof steadily forecast to be weaker by the models...

Yep, not just being the GFS, but the first and only global model to have a lot of the new data in.

the other models have the data with their 0Z runs as well

[HurricaneFrances04]

Interesting that the 12Z Euro showed that bend back to the west after crossing Haiti. Now imagine that occurring along the GFS track in the Bahamas.

[MississippiWx]

Interesting that the 12Z Euro showed that bend back to the west after crossing Haiti. Now imagine that occurring along the GFS track in the Bahamas.

Yep.

Anyone thinking Florida is in the clear is, well, not smart. Should give it another day or so before Florida can feel better or worse.

[Aric Dunn]

Full data input wont be until 06z for this recent upper air mission. 00z got a lot of it though.