ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2981 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:18 am

HWRF is one degree SSW from same time as compared to 18Z run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2982 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:19 am

HWRF trending slower and west:

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2983 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:20 am

Here we go!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2984 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:27 am

HWRF is about 12 hours faster than the GFS. Landfall on eastern Jamaica in 78 hours vs 90 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2985 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:33 am

Wow much further west...

Image
Last edited by SFLcane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2986 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:34 am

0z GFDL landfall in Palm Beach County/S.Fla in 126 hours

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016093000&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2987 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:36 am

That would be so ugly for Fl!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2988 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:38 am

Wow, this is getting crazy! It seems like every time I look at a model it's trending West, except for the EURO of course
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2989 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:39 am

SFLcane wrote:Wow much further west...

Image


Holy cow! Now in line with GFS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2990 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:46 am

That isn't good, gap is closing. We are at 5 days from US landfall.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2991 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:46 am

NAVGEM bucks the west trend. East of Jamaica in 3 days. But is also slower than the last few runs.

Looks like the HWRF wants to turn N/NE after 4 days....SE of Andros Island.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2992 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:54 am

00z EURO initialized...the model run we lose sleep over 8-)

EDIT: NHC has upgraded Matthew to a 100 MPH category 2...rapidly intensified. More discussion in the main thread.
Last edited by AdamFirst on Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2993 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:55 am

24 hours- 0Z Euro in exact spot as yesterday's 0Z run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2994 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:05 am

again the interesting note with the GFDL is the nnw to nw turn at the end of the run..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2995 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:05 am

00z cmc further west near SFL..

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2996 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:06 am

Aric Dunn wrote:again the interesting note with the GFDL is the nnw to nw turn at the end of the run..


The new Ukmet does it too.....


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2997 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:07 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:again the interesting note with the GFDL is the nnw to nw turn at the end of the run..


The new Ukmet does it too.....


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The 12Z Euro also has it between 144 and 168. Only difference is that it's over the SE Bahamas as opposed to Central Bahamas (which is a huge difference for SE Florida).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2998 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:08 am

00z Euro more NW than the previous 00z run:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2999 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:10 am

Lol might watch it go out to sea..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3000 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:10 am

It's hard to compare a model that runs every 12 hours when we can only see 24 hour outputs, but it looks a little SW of the 12Z through 72 hours. That said, it's a little faster than yesterday's 0Z.
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