ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Aric Dunn]

now out to sea.. ok goodnight. ill check tomorrow and hopefully they will agree on something..

still have to wait and see if this ghostly upper low over the eastern gulf even develops to pull in northward.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Very notable shift west for 00Z GFS.
CoC now goes over the middle of Jamaica.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 93000&fh=6

Also looks to be way underestimating strength.
I would toss this out the window.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS just coming in.
Still initializing it at 1002mb.

[GCANE]

Looks like HWRF & GFDL had the most accurate initialization of the 00Z runs.

[GCANE]

[Blown Away]

From @Jamaica to offshore OBX, the 06z was Slightly E (@30-50 miles) of 00z... 5am NHC 5 day (120 hour) position is very close to 06z GFS 120 hour position... Seems NHC likes GFS timing...

[wxman57]

Operational models & ensembles have shifted a bit east overnight. 06Z GFS is farther offshore (Carolinas) than 00Z. The Euro is closer to Haiti than Jamaica then over the eastern Bahamas & out to sea.

[SFLcane]

Hope most in SFL not loosing sleep for these models odds are now that the euro GFS has trending eastward others will follow.

[weathaguyry]

I am just curious as to what exactly is going to cause a hard right turn near the OBX. Yesterday GFS had it riding up the east coast, today I see that it dives right. When I look at the MSLP anomoly, I get more confused, because there is some kind of low that forms right in front of Matthew. Can somebody clarify why this may happen? Thanks

[tolakram]

I was expecting more of a shift and more agreement. GFS still awfully close to the coast and faster than the Euro.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like for the 1st time most modeling is locked in on a E Jamacia/E Cuba/Central Bahamas and out to sea after solutions last night and this morning. Still 100 mile difference could mean alot for FL east coast from getting nothing to getting strong TS conditions near the coast.

[Ken711]

Operational models & ensembles have shifted a bit east overnight. 06Z GFS is farther offshore (Carolinas) than 00Z. The Euro is closer to Haiti than Jamaica then over the eastern Bahamas & out to sea.

If Matthew passes over the mountains in Cuba is there a chance it won't re-intensify as strong?

[Ken711]

Looks like for the 1st time most modeling is locked in on a E Jamacia/E Cuba/Central Bahamas and out to sea after solutions last night and this morning. Still 100 mile difference could mean alot for FL east coast from getting nothing to getting strong TS conditions near the coast.

How close to the OBX NC?

[WeatherEmperor]

Gfdl has come to reality joining the others more east. Only Ukmet and Euro remain as they are still far east


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[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like for the 1st time most modeling is locked in on a E Jamacia/E Cuba/Central Bahamas and out to sea after solutions last night and this morning. Still 100 mile difference could mean alot for FL east coast from getting nothing to getting strong TS conditions near the coast.

How close to the OBX NC?

Looks safely SE by several 100 miles in most recent modeling.

[toad strangler]

You have to be impressed with GFS overall consistency this go around. Of course there were some LOL solutions in the 300 plus range but mid range has been nearly a statue.

[BobHarlem]

GFS shifted a bit east on the 6z after the 0z run that should have been issued with a "Beware of the -removed-" sign posted up. Still uncomfortably close to the SE, but Vegas odds are still on it being east of Florida.

[chris_fit]

Probably just a wobble, but Matthew is already further South than what he was ever supposed to get per the NHC.

At Hour 24 (forecast position 10/1 6Z) he is supposed to be at his southern most point of 13.9N 72.5W

As of the last recon fix, he is at 13.7667N 70.3W - which is even south than most guidance models, and it's within 12 hours of them running. How this affects future track, no idea.

[wxman57]

I plotted all the 00Z EC & Canadian ensemble members, and 06Z GFS. EC is purple, GFS is green, Canadian is light blue. That's 91 total members, including the ECMWF control run. Definite eastward shift overnight in the EC & Canadian. Not many members indicate an East U.S. Coast landfall now. Good news, perhaps, but no "all-clear" yet for you folks in the Carolinas, by any means.