ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I disagree. It's doesn't kill storms, it delays development. The fact Matthew entered the Caribbean pretty far north helped a lot in my opinion. Once a storm has formed there's no evidence that the inflow off of SA does anything.

Is the low level easterly jet over the central & eastern Caribbean Sea which creates surface divergence, nothing to do with the downslopping winds off of the Mountains, IMO.

I disagree with this. Because it was formed already those things had less impact. Very rarely if ever will a system form in that area, I believe due to those down sloping winds. Maybe an expert can chime in but in my many years of watching these things, the South American affect is real in newly developing systems.

If anything, getting closer to South America helped Matthew strengthen, staying away from the low level jet over the middle of the Caribbean Sea between Hispaniola & S.A., that's the real killer, not down slopping winds from the S.A. Mountains, IMO.
Felix '07 did the same thing, I remember many forecasters back then calling it to weaken or not strengthen much because of "downslopping winds off of the S.A. mountains but it also went over rapid intensification in this same general area.

[tolakram]

This low stuck over me is forecast by the models to move north fairly rapidly and weaken. Will be interesting to see if it progresses as forecast.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=38&lon=-86&info=wv&zoom=4&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like Florida and OBX are still in play.

[sunnyday]

So Fla mets saying Matthew will pass some 300 miles to the east of their coast. If so, that will be good for them. Is his forecast likely correct, or is it too soon still to tell?

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like Florida and OBX are still in play.

Based on what? Operational models shifter a touch east and the EC and GFS Ensemble members shifted a good amount east further from the coast


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[GCANE]

Strong CAPE and decent shear over Cuba today.
Good chance for afternoon popups.
Should put a good dent in the trough.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So Fla mets saying Matthew will pass some 300 miles to the east of their coast. If so, that will be good for them. Is his forecast likely correct, or is it too soon still to tell?

Too soon to tell, although I'm leaning on the east of Florida side of the fence.

[tolakram]

So Fla mets saying Matthew will pass some 300 miles to the east of their coast. If so, that will be good for them. Is his forecast likely correct, or is it too soon still to tell?

Every day makes it a little more certain that it will pass east but if it were me I'd wait until the forecast is under 5 days to be more certain. Model skill improves as the number of hours decreases. We've seen models make some petty big mistakes in the 120 to 192 hour range. I know people like to be sure as soon as possible but again, if I lived in a hurricane zone, I would be prepared 24/7, have a clear plan of what to do if threatened, and then not sweat it unless the NHC forecast a hit.

[abajan]

Yes, it bounced off the southern coast..hurricanes dont like land

Gilbert certainly didn't bounce off of them.

correct...how are recovery efforts going on barbados?

Everything is pretty much back to normal here. It was mostly a matter of clearing some fallen trees and utility poles from across roads. Schools remained shut but all of them are open today.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like Florida and OBX are still in play.

Based on what? Operational models shifter a touch east and the EC and GFS Ensemble members shifted a good amount east further from the coast


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Based on the fact that they still don't have upper air pattern right from 5 days out.

[GCANE]

New eyewall hot tower firing off.

[tolakram]

[jlauderdal]

Gilbert certainly didn't bounce off of them.

correct...how are recovery efforts going on barbados?

Everything is pretty much back to normal here. It was mostly a matter of clearing some fallen trees and utility poles from across roads. Schools remained shut but all of them are open today.

very good, the folks in the Caribbean are masters at recovering from tropical systems, even the majors..i was in st maarten a few months ago and was very impressed with the old wooden shutters in downtown Philipsburg, at least an inch thick

[abajan]

Having experienced tropical storm force winds from feederbands on the southeastern side of hurricanes which were quite far from Barbados, and seeing the close proximity of Matthew to the ABC Islands, I think it may have been a bit premature for Curacao to lift their tropical storm watch.

[GCANE]

http://i.imgur.com/ObsvTGO.jpg

This puppy has to be really high since its punching thru the cirrus left from the other tower that fired just about an hour ago.

[NDG]

Having experienced tropical storm force winds from feederbands on the southeastern side of hurricanes which were quite far from Barbados, and seeing the close proximity of Matthew to the ABC Islands, I think it may have been a bit premature for Curacao to lift their tropical storm watch.

Is a much tighter compact circulation now, I doubt they will see TS conditions with the eye already far to the NW of them now.

[JaxGator]

So in Joe B's outlook, there's the big ridge over the northeast and the trough in the Rockies. The ridge is strong enough to pull Matthew toward the coast but there is another trough coming in from the east. Complex pattern. Back to the now, Matthew is definitely strengthening and more south it looks like. Very impressive and deadly.

[caneman]

Is the low level easterly jet over the central & eastern Caribbean Sea which creates surface divergence, nothing to do with the downslopping winds off of the Mountains, IMO.

I disagree with this. Because it was formed already those things had less impact. Very rarely if ever will a system form in that area, I believe due to those down sloping winds. Maybe an expert can chime in but in my many years of watching these things, the South American affect is real in newly developing systems.

If anything, getting closer to South America helped Matthew strengthen, staying away from the low level jet over the middle of the Caribbean Sea between Hispaniola & S.A., that's the real killer, not down slopping winds from the S.A. Mountains, IMO.
Felix '07 did the same thing, I remember many forecasters back then calling it to weaken or not strengthen much because of "downslopping winds off of the S.A. mountains but it also went over rapid intensification in this same general area.

Again those are rare in that area. I think since Matthew was developed it had less if any impact. I've not seen any evidence of increase in low level jet in that area. In reality it could be more than just one thing. Either way, we need to get back on topic.

[La Sirena]

So in Joe B's outlook, there's the big ridge over the northeast and the trough in the Rockies. The ridge is strong enough to pull Matthew toward the coast but there is another trough coming in from the east. Complex pattern. Back to the now, Matthew is definitely strengthening and more south it looks like. Very impressive and deadly.

So, would the trough in the east pull it up the EC and/or OTS?

[otterlyspicey]

From what I gather, the east coast looks to be clear, just like it has been for at least 24 hours now or more. Yes waves and tides and rip currents will be an issue and possibly some breezes ...but there's just nothing showing a likely scenario that involves a landfalling hurricane on the east coast. Every model run makes it more and more likely Matthew stays hundreds of miles to the east. And with Matthew's more southerly track, instead of more westerly track that he's taken this morning... I would assume that when the north movement begins, he won't be able to get as far west as earlier models. So I would think (not a forecast) that 12z models are more east? Maybe? But regardless, those poor people in the Caribbean. They have a monster to deal with.