TODAY:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT FRI 26 SEPTEMBER 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEP 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-117
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA--WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 27/1500Z
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6HRLY FIXES 28/1200Z NEAR
23N AND 83W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. NOTE: MISSION ADDED TO FLY HURRICANE JUAN WAS CANX
BY NHC AT 26/0945Z
RECON. INVESTIGATING CARIBBEAN INVEST........
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dixiebreeze
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My Thoughts
Well, the disturbance doesn't look THAT impressive this morning on visible imagery. I can't see any surface plots in the area (from home), but I know that pressures are low down there. Recon may not find an LLC today. Latest GFS is about the same as the ECMWF, NOGAPS, BAMD, and GFDL. The disturbance moves north into the SE Gulf as a cold front moves south into Florida. As the front approaches central Florida on Sunday afternoon/evening, the disturbance/depression moves ENE-NE into the southwestern peninsula. By Monday, the disturbance may be more of a frontal low east of Florida and heading out to sea.
It still doesn't look like this will become more than a TD or weak TS - and it might not ever really get its act together and develop an LLC before being drawn ENE-NE across Florida Sunday evening. One thing that looks fairly certain is that south Florida will get some heavy rain Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. And then the front may stall across south Florida and produce more heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday before finally clearing the area by Thursday as the next front comes down.
It still doesn't look like this will become more than a TD or weak TS - and it might not ever really get its act together and develop an LLC before being drawn ENE-NE across Florida Sunday evening. One thing that looks fairly certain is that south Florida will get some heavy rain Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. And then the front may stall across south Florida and produce more heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday before finally clearing the area by Thursday as the next front comes down.
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stormernie
Carribbean Development
There is a rather impressive Tropical Wave moving in from the DR this morning. This additional energy may compete with the distrubance today and combine with it finally tomorrow. The development stages of this system should be tomorrow once near the western tip of Cuba. Then it probably drift NE and then pick-up speed on Monday as the front from the north comes down the state.
Regardless of strength TD/TS or HURR the main concern for all of us down here in Southern Florida is flooding. We've had a very rainy summer and the ground cannot hold any more rain. Thus any rain event in the 5-10 inch area will be a major concern for flooding.
We'll see...
Ernie
Regardless of strength TD/TS or HURR the main concern for all of us down here in Southern Florida is flooding. We've had a very rainy summer and the ground cannot hold any more rain. Thus any rain event in the 5-10 inch area will be a major concern for flooding.
We'll see...
Ernie
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WeatherEmperor
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