ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[centuryv58]

Not even 200 miles away from me on the 12z GFS.

At that distance all we would get would be some gusty winds and an occasional squall.
Still the weaker side of the storm

Way too soon to be drawing maps. Cheer up. It could get better (or worse).

[CrazyC83]

How does this get down to 930mb into Maine (per the GFS full resolution)?

[TheStormExpert]

Not even 200 miles away from me on the 12z GFS.

At that distance all we would get would be some gusty winds and an occasional squall.
Still the weaker side of the storm

Way too soon to be drawing maps. Cheer up. It could get better (or worse).

Made that awhile ago. Happen to have a friend with a house on Man-O-War Cay, Abaco, Bahamas and when I visited last I drew this just to see the distance from their house over there to mine.

[LarryWx]

How does this get down to 930mb into Maine (per the GFS full resolution)?

I say this is bogus. The high resolution GFS and Euro have a bad habit of doing this kind of thing. I'd add back at least 20 mb and maybe 30 mb.

[emeraldislenc]

Is the threat to NC great today based on the models?

[KWT]

How does this get down to 930mb into Maine (per the GFS full resolution)?

I say this is bogus. The high resolution GFS and Euro have a bad habit of doing this kind of thing. I'd add back at least 20 mb and maybe 30 mb.

The models constantly did this in the WPAC this season, they'd get the idea for a strong system but go way overboard. The ECM in particular seemed prone to doing it.

[Ken711]

Is the threat to NC great today based on the models?

IMO yes.

[blp]

Look at the 12Z GFS ensembles, there are a noticeable cluster heading NNW with a couple landfalling along the East Coast of Florida. That is a pretty interesting change from the 06Z run.

[]https://s15.postimg.org/a5umg3bu3/gfs_ememb_lowlocs_atl_25.png[/img]

Yes, I noticed the ensembles not as tightly clustered. This is razor close.

[chris_fit]

Gonna take a step back for a min, I think this is important to remember. This was 5 days ago. Here is what the models showed.



Now, look at what they show today. Looks how much they have shifted, just 5 days later. Absolutely no reason why they wont shift again. And I pray it's not the same type of shift in 5 days, when it will be near the SE US. The models will continue to adapt to environmental conditions and they WILL change. The question is how.

[HurrMark]

Today I think the only way this will make landfall in the US is if gets west of 78 or if it moves faster than expected before the trof comes in next Friday. That hook just south of NC means the difference between some TS squalls and a full fledged monster hurricane. Still do not think a FL solution is likely at this time. That said, this rapid intensification now might throw a wrench into the models...we will see how deep this gets.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Gfdl continues to hook back WNW towards Fl east coast


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[LarryWx]

Look at the 12Z GFS ensembles, there are a noticeable cluster heading NNW with a couple landfalling along the East Coast of Florida. That is a pretty interesting change from the 06Z run.

[]https://s15.postimg.org/a5umg3bu3/gfs_ememb_lowlocs_atl_25.png[/img]

Yes, I noticed the ensembles not as tightly clustered. This is razor close.

In case you missed it, this is the first GEFS run with a FL landfall (it has 2 from among the 20 members) since the 18Z run of Tue. which also has 2 landfalls.

[DESteve]

Funny you mention that... Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack mentions this in his latest video
discussion on models and GFS.. thought was a good representation where we are at realistically.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYnkZwPVAnc



Link: https://youtu.be/qYnkZwPVAnc

[KWT]

Great image chris-fit, and your right, the trend to the west there is so obvious for all to see, another set of shifts like that will place eastern parts of Florida right into the firing line, really wouldn't need a huge change from here.

[blp]

Gonna take a step back for a min, I think this is important to remember. This was 5 days ago. Here is what the models showed.

[]https://s21.postimg.org/c0y2i2wuf/image.png[/img]

Now, look at what they show today. Looks how much they have shifted, just 5 days later. Absolutely no reason why they wont shift again. And I pray it's not the same type of shift in 5 days, when it will be near the SE US. The models will continue to adapt to environmental conditions and they WILL change. The question is how.

[]https://s15.postimg.org/5iamb5g3f/today.png[/img]

Great comparison.

[gatorcane]

12z Gfdl continues to hook back WNW towards Fl east coast


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[chris_fit]

Great image chris-fit, and your right, the trend to the west there is so obvious for all to see, another set of shifts like that will place eastern parts of Florida right into the firing line, really wouldn't need a huge change from here.

Thanks. It's just the nature of the beast, its a fluid environment. According to the models 5 days ago, Matthew should be hooking north, oh say right about a few hours ago. What do we have instead? WSW.

[sponger]

That GFDL solution would be horrific! Six days out and a lot of variables. Just going to have to wait and see what the Monday forecast is.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Gfdl continues to hook back WNW towards Fl east coast


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https://s18.postimg.org/54q68tm7d/gfdl_ ... 4_L_22.png

That's still the 6z run. I don't see the 12z run out on tropical tidbits yet.

[bqknight]

12z Gfdl continues to hook back WNW towards Fl east coast


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https://s18.postimg.org/54q68tm7d/gfdl_ ... 4_L_22.png

That's still the 6z run. I don't see the 12z run out on tropical tidbits yet.

The GFDL-P is out. I think that's what they are referring to.