ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[KWT]

BIG bend back NW from the ECM, had that NE shot not happened, this would probably be where the CMC was at that point!

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Seems the GFS and ECMWF are backing off on how strong the Eastern ULL low is when it exits the NE United States which allows more ridging to build across the Western Atlantic.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thumb ridge rearing its ugly head at 144

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone have a link to the JMA run or know whether it actually finished? It seems like it is stuck at 72 hours on TropicalTidbits.

[bqknight]

http://i.imgur.com/OQfJ4er.png

Seems like more and more models are starting to show this bend back to the NW temporarily before being shot out NE.

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone have a link to the JMA run or know whether it actually finished? It seems like it is stuck at 72 hours on TropicalTidbits.

And just as soon as I posted that the 96 hour image came through...Guess it's just a little slow running.

[gatorcane]

Anyone have a link to the JMA run or know whether it actually finished? It seems like it is stuck at 72 hours on TropicalTidbits.

12Z JMA animation from hour 0 to 192. It continues to show the WNW bend but kicks it out before reaching Florida. Look how strong the JMA makes this in the Bahamas!

[tolakram]

Anyone have a link to the JMA run or know whether it actually finished? It seems like it is stuck at 72 hours on TropicalTidbits.

Tropical Tidbits should be your number one goto site for models.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ?model=jma

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anyone have a link to the JMA run or know whether it actually finished? It seems like it is stuck at 72 hours on TropicalTidbits.

And just as soon as I posted that the 96 hour image came through...Guess it's just a little slow running.

It must be complex it only runs once a day.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

looks like slow WNW to NW movement

[BobHarlem]

Really Euro? Hit the breaks near Jamaica, and then weave right between Haiti and Cuba?

[NDG]

The weird thing about the Euro is that it has even a stronger ridge than the GFS has at 72-96 hr but it has it tracking NNE, weird.

It's developing a separate area of low pressure south of Bermuda that creates just enough weakness to pull this northeast. Not sure how valid that low is, but it's something to watch.

I see that now.

[otowntiger]

you all notice a much larger spread in the GFSL members for the 12z.. with quite a few showing that nw turn starting in the bahamas similar to the UKMET>...

yeah, there is an ever so slight bend there. nothing dramatic. I guess it could be the start of something, but it could just as easily bend back or straighten out on the next run. . It seems to me that the track is pretty much staying solid. Even with that slight bend it seems to compensate with more north/north eastward movement at the end.

[SouthFLTropics]

JMA enough to put all of South Florida on high alert. Today's runs have so far been very interesting. More late nights ahead it looks like.

[windnrain]

Wow...

[PTrackerLA]

Wow, will the weakness to the east allow it to escape? I no longer see a big trough swinging through the southern plains at 168hrs .

[KWT]

Rapid, near explosive deepening in the Bahamas on the 12z ECM, down to 931mbs by 168hrs!!

[SFLcane]

Yikes heading NW towards Florida...