ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

That is really strong as well.

[TheStormExpert]

Did any single one of the dropsone from yesterday get into the Euro runs. This model is just too inconsistent @ 500mb even just 5-6 days out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Really Euro? Hit the breaks near Jamaica, and then weave right between Haiti and Cuba?

Gotta love that path of least resistance that the Euro had it take. Just had to avoid interaction with the major land masses.

[Aric Dunn]

Did that low / trough just miss with building ridge over the carolinas at 168 hours ?

[wxmann_91]

Stuck in a col area with a building ridge to its northwest at hr 168. Oy vey...

[SouthFLTropics]

Did that low / trough just miss with building ridge over the carolinas at 168 hours ?

Looks like the trough washed out...Not liking the way this run is shaping up.

[stormlover2013]

7 days out will keep changing thats not good

[SFLcane]

Oh my!

[AutoPenalti]

The little trough that couldn't...

[wxmann_91]

Did any single one of the dropsone from yesterday get into the Euro runs. This model is just too inconsistent @ 500mb even just 5-6 days out.

I've said this before but the features that will impact the steering at this range are over the Pacific and Continental U.S. right now. The dropsondes were focused on the environment immediately around Matthew.

[SouthFLTropics]

From a consistency standpoint the GFS has quite frankly put the Euro to shame for this storm. The Euro has been all over the board in the 5-7 day range whereas the GFS has pretty much not wavered aside from a slight left or right shift.

[miamijaaz]

So much for the decreasing threat to FL...

[Aric Dunn]

could you imagine where it would be if it does not do that nne motion.. it would already be over florida.

[tolakram]

Whew, made the turn. Way too close.

[PTrackerLA]

NNE turn at 192...

[1900hurricane]

Not sure how this would affect Matthew, but there are phase possibilities to the northeast of the system with the shortwave north of Bermuda and the trough progressing through the Great Lakes at tau 168. Something to watch this run.

[gatorcane]

Turning slowly NE at 192 hours but that is a long-time from now. Who knows if it doesn't end up a little further west into Florida on future runs. This possible WNW or NW turn in the Bahamas has been entertained off and on in the ECMWF/UKMET/JMA models for many days now. So this should not be a big surprise. Now I see the GFS ensembles are kindaof picking up on it too. Here is where the more inferior CMC and NAVGEM deficiencies of a quick recurve may be starting to come out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 192...takes it off to the NNE. The Euro at this range is just to wishy washy for me. It's flip flopping more than a politician right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Did any single one of the dropsone from yesterday get into the Euro runs. This model is just too inconsistent @ 500mb even just 5-6 days out.

I've said this before but the features that will impact the steering at this range are over the Pacific and Continental U.S. right now. The dropsondes were focused on the environment immediately around Matthew.

the one feature .. the upper low thats supposed to form over the eastern gulf will be the main steering according to the models. but it appears they are slightly changing their minds on how strong that feature and how long it will be there.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Whew, made the turn. Way too close.

I know one thing, the Bahaman chain is going to take a beating based on current modeling.