ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

could you imagine where it would be if it does not do that nne motion.. it would already be over florida.

Agreed, if the low South of Bermuda doesn't materialize then it's into South Florida and up the spine. Of course, it all depends upon timing too. This is a complex setup.

[tolakram]

HiRes Euro has this at 920mb

[Aric Dunn]

Turning slowly NE at 192 hours but that is a long-time from now. Who knows if it doesn't end up a little further west into Florida on future runs. This possible WNW or NW turn in the Bahamas has been entertained off and on in the models for many days now. So this should not be a big surprise.

thats too close to call that trof has clearly only wakened the ridging . notice how quickly its filling in behind it might leave it behind or just a slow crawl..

[stormlover2013]

Couple of models are trying to develop an area of low pressure northeast of matthew that would weaken the ridge somewhat but I don't agree with that...this will keep changing !!

[bqknight]

[p1nheadlarry]

This is becoming somewhat similar to Joaquin. We're a ways away, but if the GFS is beat again (though it still recurves it, they're not terribly dissimilar) after it's upgrade, wow.

[otterlyspicey]

I'm not focusing on the details this far out... however what I'm seeing consistently is the N movement, then NW making it look like it's heading to the US coast, then a NE to ENE movement quickly moving away from the US coast on almost every model, before causing too much trouble to the US mainland. Now, when and where these turns occur, that's soooo up in the air this far out.

Also, poor Jamaica and now increasingly scary forecast for the Bahamas as well. That Euro really pummels them with an extraordinarily strong hurricane.

[stormreader]

Yikes heading NW towards Florida...

What everyone might be missing is the fact that the new results showing a NW movement down the line (in the Bahamas) might be a clue to an even earlier NW movement. In other words it could be a precursor to models eventually showing a more NNW movement in the Carribean (not true N). In that case Mathew would cross Cuba further west and end up near Key West. We'll see if models not only reinforce this later NW turn but actually get off the true N in the Carribean and take it on a NNW while there until the crossing of Cuba.

[stormlover2013]

i am focusing on how the models see upper level pattern.............and being a week out man ohh man a lot can change

[gatorcane]

Euro 216 hours (an eternity), crawling NE....looks like a CAT 4 maybe?

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

18z BAM's all shift west a significant amount in all levels.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 6&title=14

[SFLcane]

So most if not all models including EURO shifted westward

[ronyan]

This doesn't look like a done deal based on how much the Euro is changing 500mb features from the last run.

[ronjon]

Hmmm...18z suite of models has GFDL, BAMD, and UKMET either hit FL or Georgia.

[ronjon]

Hmmm...18z suite of models has GFDL, BAMD, and UKMET either hit FL or Georgia.

[Aric Dunn]

look at that ridge building to the north if it does not find its way through the weakness to the ENE its going to get trapped.

[stormlover2013]

this is going to be a tough forecast

[tolakram]

Odd setup north of Matthew. Is that some kind of noreaster moving up the coast?

[OuterBanker]

At least it's looking better with the earlier and more pronounced recurve for the Carolinas.