ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NYR__1994]

Wow, the Bahamas seeing such a serious threat almost exactly 1 year after Joaquin... crazy.

Also, surprised at how conservative the NHC has been with forecasting intensification. I get being cautious and not forecasting it to be stronger than necessary so as not to cause panic, etc... but they've really been under. Interested to see what the discussion at 5PM is.

The NHC forecast has been stronger than the models have predicted, yet Matthew is intensifying faster than either have predicted. I am not so sure anyone knows where he will end up yet, and just kind of following where the models trend, which for the past 5 days has been westward ho.....

[Vdogg]

You can see shockwaves in the WV loops (speed it up). Wondering if this is from Matthew or the Kelvin Wave.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=29&lon=-80&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=none

Likely gravity waves from Matthew. Fairly typical with strong convection.

Wait, the same waves Einstein predicted that we just confirmed six-seven months ago?

Einstein predicted "gravitational" waves, which is a completely different phenomenon than "gravity" waves.

[Michele B]

I know that. Should have worded it differently but the words "not good" should be enough to imply it's strengthening.

they should, but as strange as it may sound to people like you and I who live in hurricane zones, there are posters who are actually disappointed
if a storm doesn't strengthen.

I sincerely hope this statement wasn't directed at me. I was simply clarifying what I THOUGHT I understood from this post. I mean, I thought Jax was saying it wasn't looking good for the hurricane....

Sorry if I gave the impression that I am happy that it's strengthening, cause I live in hurricane-land, too and I am NOT going to be happy to see it continue to strengthen.

I'm new around here, guys, so I guess I don't always catch the nuances of your posts!

[Soonercane]

I am curious how much this will weaken if it goes over Cuba? Down to a cat 1 or less?

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 13:28:19 N Lon : 71:18:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 966.1mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 6.1 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -21.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[Alyono]

Wow, the Bahamas seeing such a serious threat almost exactly 1 year after Joaquin... crazy.

Also, surprised at how conservative the NHC has been with forecasting intensification. I get being cautious and not forecasting it to be stronger than necessary so as not to cause panic, etc... but they've really been under. Interested to see what the discussion at 5PM is.

The NHC forecast has been stronger than the models have predicted, yet Matthew is intensifying faster than either have predicted. I am not so sure anyone knows where he will end up yet, and just kind of following where the models trend, which for the past 5 days has been westward ho.....

No, their forecast has not been. The EC and MU have consistently been forecasting a significantly stronger storm than they have been forecasting

[Aric Dunn]

and let the wobble watching begin ... and go !



seriously though its about to bomb out even more.. cat 4 by 11pm ?

[Yellow Evan]

T5.5

[Kazmit]

Matthew's appearance hasn't impressed me much until now. Looks a bit like Sandy at it's peak (except smaller).
Latest:

Sandy:

[Bhuggs]

Looking at my twc app, it looks like the cone has shifted west. Miami was on the Far East edge of the end of the cone and now none of Florida is. But this also the same organization that posted a video stating that Matthew would possibly be a 3 by tomorrow night when it was already a 3 this morning

[Aric Dunn]

already down to 13.3 n

11am forecast advisory never gets it below 13.5 north and its still dropping WSW

[gatorcane]

already down to 13.3 n

11am forecast advisory never gets it below 13.5 north and its still dropping WSW

The longer it takes to get out of the Caribbean, the more of a threat for Florida/US this may be if the 12Z EURO is correct with ridge building back in after the Eastern CONUS cutoff low moves out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at my twc app, it looks like the cone has shifted west. Miami was on the Far East edge of the end of the cone and now none of Florida is. But this also the same organization that posted a video stating that Matthew would possibly be a 3 by tomorrow night when it was already a 3 this morning

NHC forecast track and cone won't be updated until 5:00PM so what you are seeing is probably TWC's "version" of the cone. I wouldn't put too much credence into it at this point. Stick with the NHC official maps.

[ronyan]

Maybe some good news. If it has a pinhole eye those don't tend to last very long before EWRC begins.

[Raebie]

Maybe some good news. If it has a pinhole eye those don't tend to last very long before EWRC begins.

Yeah, but it has plenty of time to complete one before impacting Jamaica, correct?

[cycloneye]

Conversation about the shear.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781864975123881984




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/781934349738467328

[ronyan]

Maybe some good news. If it has a pinhole eye those don't tend to last very long before EWRC begins.

Yeah, but it has plenty of time to complete one before impacting Jamaica, correct?

That could end up being the case. But maybe some dry air can penetrate the core during the cycle.

[Michele B]

OK, so I pulled this graphic up:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 719,35.853

From the looks of it, the "strong trough" that's supposed to pick this thing up (now located over KY? Cause I don't see anything strong enough out in the Rockies). The one over KY looks like it only dives down as far south as GA, and not very strong....

So am I wrong to think this graphic could show me the future steering currents for Matt?

[Soonercane]

So based on the guidance it appears Matthew has reached its high point in intensity?

[Yellow Evan]

So based on the guidance it appears Matthew has reached its high point in intensity?

Yes, but I'm confident this will peak around 125 knots or so. The guidance isn't accurately reflecting the SST's.