ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Stop for a second... Can you image a 930mb cyclone or what ever heading wnw nearing SFL for a moment? Like Floyd SFL would likely face a hurricane warning for the simple reason " what if doesn't turn"

Matthew is staring at the NHC and all the Emergency Managers right now and saying to them "all eyes on me". I don't envy them and the decisions they may or may not have to make in the coming days. NHC has their work cut out for them.

[RL3AO]

Well that changes almost everything. Timing is going to be ridiculously critical in this case. The tiniest difference now can make huge changes later.

Yep. Yet many are still content on taking a 8 day model forecast and saying large swaths of areas are all clear.

[Rail Dawg]

Stop for a second... Can you image a 930mb cyclone or what ever heading wnw nearing SFL for a moment? Like Floyd SFL would likely face a hurricane warning for the simple reason " what if doesn't turn"

As a hurricane chaser I was on the beach south of Jacksonville in 1999 when Floyd was powering in.

I had my parking lot garage next to a hospital position staked out so was going to be protected and above the surge.

That last-minute turn of Floyd was incredible.

3rd-largest evacuation in U.S. History behind Gustav and Rita... both of which I was in the eye.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Stop for a second... Can you image a 930mb cyclone or what ever heading wnw nearing SFL for a moment? Like Floyd SFL would likely face a hurricane warning for the simple reason " what if doesn't turn"

That would be crazy if we got that close and we still weren't sure enough and had to issue evacuations for Florida like with Floyd. I mean it's not 1999 anymore and we have a better grasp on storms and computer modeling has improved drastically. I don't see a scenario like that ever happening again. But never say never I guess.

[SFLcane]

Stop for a second... Can you image a 930mb cyclone or what ever heading wnw nearing SFL for a moment? Like Floyd SFL would likely face a hurricane warning for the simple reason " what if doesn't turn"

Matthew is staring at the NHC and all the Emergency Managers right now and saying to them "all eyes on me". I don't envy them and the decisions they may or may not have to make in the coming days. NHC has their work cut out for them.

I know I live blocks away.

[jlauderdal]

Weird run. Looks like Euro wants Matthew to hang around until Christmas at this rate. Not buying that run, at all.

wxman57 called for two weeks a few days ago possibly affecting his florida vacation mid month...he planned it for oct because its prime time for the sunshine state

[blp]

This is an eye popping run by the Euro. I remain a little skeptical still though given the issues this year with the Euro.

[robbielyn]

Wow! Just saw the 12z European. Pretty much stalls in the Bahamas. With a 924mb center it would pretty much destroy the Bahamas. Wouldn't wish that on anyone.

and my boss went to Freeport today for a week's vacay despite my warnings by boat nonetheless.

[OntarioEggplant]

Well that changes almost everything. Timing is going to be ridiculously critical in this case. The tiniest difference now can make huge changes later.

Yep. Yet many are still contempt on taking a 8 day model forecast and saying large swaths of areas are all clear.

Right before the 240 plot came out, I told someone I know in the panhandle of Florida that it looks like they're going to be good with this, although there was a slight chance that it still could since models are having problems resolving the ridge. I regret even sending it now.

[blp]

I was just thinking can you imagine if the Euro does not make that NE turn early on. The WNW bend back would have brought this over Florida. Too early to tell but I suspect we will have lots of Euro watchers tonight.

[sma10]

Plus, the stall forecast by the Euro (if it's even correct) is not until days 9 AND 10 for goodness sake. Even if it played out it's highly unlikely the little "southern stall" routine would take place in that exact modeled location. It could be a couple of hundred miles east or west of there, if you even want to contemplate that horrible thought.

[ronyan]

There is some high terrain in that part of South America, if it gets much closer it may have problems.

[otowntiger]

if you run the loop. it actually does a look just like jeanne did.. craziness.. and nearly the exact same spot

While remember Jeanne very well here in Otlando, I don't remember what the synoptic pattern was then. What caused Jeanne to plow westward into cent all Flotida from the loop she travelled? In this scenario with a Matthew stall in subsequent loop what would cause it to not drift northward as it awaits another trough to yank it OTS from that position? In other words could it do a Jeanne coming into Florida in that set up or would it just sit there tearing up the Bahamas before shooting ots?

[miamijaaz]

Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781931478737313792

[sma10]

If you want to follow Euro's Day 10+ to the most absurd possible conclusion:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Inez

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, this is crazy. I'll admit that some of my Out to Sea comments have a bit of wishful thinking bias attached to them. I'm still hoping that somehow this finds a way to recurve out to sea, and that it doesn't hit too many populated areas on the islands

[centuryv58]

Stop for a second... Can you image a 930mb cyclone or what ever heading wnw nearing SFL for a moment? Like Floyd SFL would likely face a hurricane warning for the simple reason " what if doesn't turn"

Matthew is staring at the NHC and all the Emergency Managers right now and saying to them "all eyes on me". I don't envy them and the decisions they may or may not have to make in the coming days. NHC has their work cut out for them.

I know I live blocks away.

You are right. Dr. Knabb and the others must wait until the last possible minute to pull the trigger for FL. The stakes are way way higher than when Max Mayfield and others where at NHC. The pressure cooker would be too much for me anyway.

[SFLcane]

(Black line) is official forecast 11AM (red is TCVN consensus model) NHC typically follow.

[Aric Dunn]

notice the continued adjustments every advisory to the south and west..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/gr ... p_5W.shtml