ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3441 Postby SouthernBreeze » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:39 pm

in that image TVCN treks over less mountainous area of Cuba
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3442 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:39 pm

Yes, Floyd was a real trip. Evacuation from FL to NC. At the time the largest Evacuation ever. But, it approached from the east and made a hard right to NC. Not from the south like Matthew.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3443 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:39 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:if you run the loop. it actually does a look just like jeanne did.. craziness.. and nearly the exact same spot

While remember Jeanne very well here in Otlando, I don't remember what the synoptic pattern was then. What caused Jeanne to plow westward into cent all Flotida from the loop she travelled? In this scenario with a Matthew stall in subsequent loop what would cause it to not drift northward as it awaits another trough to yank it OTS from that position? In other words could it do a Jeanne coming into Florida in that set up or would it just sit there tearing up the Bahamas before shooting ots?


it was a large trough that flattened and a huge blocking ridge built in.. here is the old nhc forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JE ... hics.shtml
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3444 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:40 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:in that image TVCN treks over less mountainous area of Cuba


Means NHC now needs to shift left there now on the right of consensus
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3445 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:42 pm

Of the 40 GFS & Canadian ensemble members, none indicates stalling near the Bahamas, and only a few indicate any Florida or Carolinas impact. Most keep it offshore and out to sea, maybe not by a great distance, but generally hurricane-force winds stay offshore. My flight is scheduled to arrive in Orlando Monday afternoon, October 10th. I hope I won't see Matthew out the window as we reach Orlando...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Modelsd

#3446 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:42 pm

miamijaaz wrote:Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.
palm beach post was the board of choice back then
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3447 Postby centuryv58 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:Of the 40 GFS & Canadian ensemble members, none indicates stalling near the Bahamas, and only a few indicate any Florida or Carolinas impact. Most keep it offshore and out to sea, maybe not by a great distance, but generally hurricane-force winds stay offshore. My flight is scheduled to arrive in Orlando Monday afternoon, October 10th. I hope I won't see Matthew out the window as we reach Orlando...


He wouldn't dare tangle with you (or your avatar). :D
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3448 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:44 pm

miamijaaz wrote:Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.


I don't even think S2k was around in 1999 when Floyd came in. That would've been back on the old GoPBI pages.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3449 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:44 pm

I don't recall seeing this area of low pressure northeast of Matthew on the 00z ECMWF. As if the forecast wasn't complicated enough...

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3450 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:45 pm

12Z UKMET:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3451 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:Of the 40 GFS & Canadian ensemble members, none indicates stalling near the Bahamas, and only a few indicate any Florida or Carolinas impact. Most keep it offshore and out to sea, maybe not by a great distance, but generally hurricane-force winds stay offshore. My flight is scheduled to arrive in Orlando Monday afternoon, October 10th. I hope I won't see Matthew out the window as we reach Orlando...


No Worries WXMAN57 - Matthew will still be near Jamaica on Monday. Check back in a few days :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3452 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:46 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
miamijaaz wrote:Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.


I don't even think S2k was around in 1999 when Floyd came in. That would've been back on the old GoPBI pages.


S2K was born in October,2002.Many members came from the old GoPBI.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3453 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
miamijaaz wrote:Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.


I don't even think S2k was around in 1999 when Floyd came in. That would've been back on the old GoPBI pages.


S2K was born in October,2002.Many members came from the old GoPBI.


Yep...I was one of the old GoPBI members that came onboard.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3454 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:Of the 40 GFS & Canadian ensemble members, none indicates stalling near the Bahamas, and only a few indicate any Florida or Carolinas impact. Most keep it offshore and out to sea, maybe not by a great distance, but generally hurricane-force winds stay offshore. My flight is scheduled to arrive in Orlando Monday afternoon, October 10th. I hope I won't see Matthew out the window as we reach Orlando...

You know you jinxed it...maybe you will see Canmore. : :D
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3455 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:51 pm

If the Euro is correct, we will be tracking this storm for maybe like 2 more weeks... :eek:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3456 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET:

[img]https://s16.postimg.org/yxtevbk1h/ukm2_2016100712_168_lant_troplant_prp_fcst_gentr.png[/im]



interesting the north turn is later and the NNE motion is quite bit farther west than last run.. looks like things are changing.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3457 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:52 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Wow! Just saw the 12z European. Pretty much stalls in the Bahamas. With a 924mb center it would pretty much destroy the Bahamas. Wouldn't wish that on anyone.

Stalls may actually mean a W drift. And if I'm right, Mathew might already be closer to Fl than the Bahamas at that point. That's because I'm not sold on the true N move out of the Carribean. I favor a NNW taking it across Cuba toward Key West. Then you would get a slow down over there. But slow down might mean a W drift.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3458 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:53 pm

Would be hard for Matthew to miss from that 144hrs UKMO chart.

ECM seems crazy, hard to imagine it just lingering like that but it would be one for the record books if that were to happen for sure!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3459 Postby marionstorm » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:53 pm

Nothing like a good forum insurrection. I remember 2002 on storm2k good times. Nexrad, streetsoldier, that Methane Mike crank, etc. what a bunch of nuts.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3460 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:54 pm

Leave it to the ECM to throw a wrench into the works!
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