ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

they must be enjoying themselves flying around in the eye so much lol

anyway.. 125 to 130 mph..

still think cat 4 by 11pm

193830 1334N 07112W 7708 02074 9802 +153 //// 167101 104 084 013 01
193900 1334N 07114W 7674 02074 9802 +155 //// 164107 109 095 025 01
193930 1334N 07116W 7629 02074 9802 +152 //// 165109 112 104 026 01

[KWT]

New vortex at 954mb (Drop From the 2PM advisory at 960mb)

Still deepening it seems, very impressive day of strengthening from Matthew. Been a while since a hurricane pulled this sort of strengthening in the deep tropics.

[1900hurricane]

New vortex at 954mb (Drop From the 2PM advisory at 960mb)

that's EXTRAP which means it's an estimation...

They did list the extrapolated pressure in the Vortex Data Message though. Looks like they've prioritized getting eyewall wind data from flight level and SFMR over dropsonde eye pressures this mission.

[OntarioEggplant]

Btw, is anyone else amazed at how close the FL winds and SFMR winds are? Seems like less than the typical reduction.

[Aric Dunn]

Still rapidily intensifying. pressure 949 with 20 kts of wind.. likely 946 ish or so..


thats 15 mb in 2 two hours.

[ronyan]

Still rapidily intensifying. pressure 949 with 20 kts of wind.. likely 946 ish or so..


thats 15 mb in 2 two hours.

Thanks, recon thread is not being updated currently.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/781943519749419008

[Kazmit]

Still rapidily intensifying. pressure 949 with 20 kts of wind.. likely 946 ish or so..


thats 15 mb in 2 two hours.

Thanks, recon thread is not being updated currently.

949 mbar makes Matthew the strongest storm of the season. I think this'll become a Cat 4 tonight.

[KWT]

Btw, is anyone else amazed at how close the FL winds and SFMR winds are? Seems like less than the typical reduction.

When you've got explosive strengthening like we seem to have at the moment, quite often the FL winds are brought close to the surface which would explain why the winds are quite close.

Now time for a poll of thoughts....what is Matthew's bottom pressure in this round of strengthening?

[1900hurricane]

Btw, is anyone else amazed at how close the FL winds and SFMR winds are? Seems like less than the typical reduction.

I've observed that intensifying storms, especially those that are bombing out, oftentimes have SFMR wind observations higher than what would typically be expected from a standard .9 ratio from flight level winds. Megi '10 and Patricia '15, two storms the explosively intensified to well below 900 mb, actually had near 1:1 ratios between flight level and SFMR at times.

[GCANE]

Core temp up to 7C.
Last fix was 4C.

[Aric Dunn]

welll we should have a cat 4 at 5pm

194600 1342N 07124W 7591 02121 9539 +152 //// 104114 121 113 024 01
194630 1344N 07124W 7615 02121 9539 +144 //// 102117 120 103 059 01
194700 1346N 07124W 7669 02121 9539 +145 //// 102112 115 091 045 01
194730 1348N 07124W 7688 02121 9539 +145 //// 095105 107 078 045 01


well darn close but givien the continued RI.. 145 at 11pm is possible.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just eyeballing the Vis loop, it seems like the long awaited slow down is happening.

[windnrain]

It certainly appears to my untrained eye like it is starting to bottom out in its motion southwest and is making the turn west.

[KWT]

welll we should have a cat 4 at 5pm

194600 1342N 07124W 7591 02121 9539 +152 //// 104114 121 113 024 01
194630 1344N 07124W 7615 02121 9539 +144 //// 102117 120 103 059 01
194700 1346N 07124W 7669 02121 9539 +145 //// 102112 115 091 045 01
194730 1348N 07124W 7688 02121 9539 +145 //// 095105 107 078 045 01


well darn close but givien the continued RI.. 145 at 11pm is possible.

Yeah looks like enough evidence there to go with 115kts, especially given it is strengthening at a decent rate anyway, so if its not 100% there now, it'll be there by advisory time you'd have to think.

[FireRat]

A beast in the making...I'll go with Cat 4 by this evening, we will probably wake up to something amazing tomorrow.

[TheDreamTraveler]

welll we should have a cat 4 at 5pm

194600 1342N 07124W 7591 02121 9539 +152 //// 104114 121 113 024 01
194630 1344N 07124W 7615 02121 9539 +144 //// 102117 120 103 059 01
194700 1346N 07124W 7669 02121 9539 +145 //// 102112 115 091 045 01
194730 1348N 07124W 7688 02121 9539 +145 //// 095105 107 078 045 01


well darn close but givien the continued RI.. 145 at 11pm is possible.

Definitely. Wouldn't be surprised if it made a run to cat 5 before it gets near land. Really horrible situation no matter what.

[Exalt]

Considering the extremely favorable conditions, immense slowdown, quick RI, and the significant amount of time that Matthew has in the Atlantic, could the first Cat 5 we've had in 9 years be in immediate reach? This could easily bomb out to a Cat 4 tonight, and it's forecasted to stay over water for another day or two, so it has the time considering it's current rate of intensification imo.

[1900hurricane]

ADT is now responding to the emerging IR eye too. Additionally, SATCON is on the rise. Based on objective measurements and trends from geostationary satellite, polar orbiting satellites, and recon, I wouldn't be surprised to see something like 115 kt/948 mb by 00Z.

Looks like I wasn't aggressive enough.

[Yellow Evan]

Rain rate for the 113 knots is higher than I'd like, but is less of a big deal at past intensities. Also matches up well with past FL/SFMR ratios.