ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[chris_fit]

NASA Model currently running the 12Z. Here it is at 72 hrs

[stormreader]

Well that changes almost everything. Timing is going to be ridiculously critical in this case. The tiniest difference now can make huge changes later.

Yep. Yet many are still contempt on taking a 8 day model forecast and saying large swaths of areas are all clear.

Right before the 240 plot came out, I told someone I know in the panhandle of Florida that it looks like they're going to be good with this, although there was a slight chance that it still could since models are having problems resolving the ridge. I regret even sending it now.

Should be okay---but not definite. If Mathew ends up a little farther west (say near Key West) and you have a slow down, you could have a WNW drift out into the GOM. A resumed N movement from there would then take it toward the panhandle. Possible. But the odds would favor I think a more N movement from a point near Key West, if it migrates to that location, which I think is very possible.

[SFLcane]

MWatkins give us your 2 cents

[KWT]

Leave it to the ECM to throw a wrench into the works!

Yeah what a crazy end to the run. Still think its a matter of time before a recurve on that chart but thats a real long time to just sit in one spot! Bahamas better hope that doesn't get picked up by more models...

[jlauderdal]

I don't even think S2k was around in 1999 when Floyd came in. That would've been back on the old GoPBI pages.

S2K was born in October,2002.Many members came from the old GoPBI.

Yep...I was one of the old GoPBI members that came onboard.

they changed the format of the board and it died

[MWatkins]

Here's a snapshot of the 18Z interpolated GFS/derived guidance. Every initialization point is south of the previous forecast tracks, so all of these have a right of track bias (so far, summary below). Hope I posted the image right, I don't remember the rule for that.



GFS - on the left side of the latest forecasts, but mostly in line with 0Z and 06Z runs through 120 hours.

GFDL - also consistent with the left turn at 120

HWRF - More or less the same as before

GFS Ensemble Mean - Left side of recent guidance but no real change

[jlauderdal]

Nothing like a good forum insurrection. I remember 2002 on storm2k good times. Nexrad, streetsoldier, that Methane Mike crank, etc. what a bunch of nuts.

56k dial up

[SFLcane]

Come to think GFDL was first to show this hook back to the left.

[Frank2]

Considering it's strength, more likely it would turn poleward - perhaps why the NHC is staying with a northward turn...

[windnrain]

People have been saying for this storm that a more strong storm would likely track more west though - why so?

[miamijaaz]

Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.

I don't even think S2k was around in 1999 when Floyd came in. That would've been back on the old GoPBI pages.

You know what, I think you guys are right. I must be thinking of another storm. 1999? I feel old.

[stephen23]

I have a feeling we will see the cone shift west tonight. I was an catastrophe adjuster for many years and still on the roster for many different insurance companies. Insurance companies are very conservative on pulling the gun on staffing up for potential US land strikes. They will usually wait till about 3 days before and certainty of a hit. Over past hour I have gotten a call for possible deployment from 5 different companies. This leads me to believe they have been given information that others have not been given yet. They are usually the first to know. For instance... we were sitting in SC in briefings 3 days before Sandy. We were sitting in Boumont 2 days before Isaac hit New Orleans, and sitting in D.C. 3 days before Irene went up east coast. I don't know where their info comes from but they always seem to be given information some are not privy to

[AutoPenalti]

People have been saying for this storm that a more strong storm would likely track more west though - why so?

Ridge pumping, causes a delayed North turn.

[HurricaneBelle]

I wonder if Panasonic will share its model data with the public or the NHC on Matthew. So much has been made about how it's outperformed the Euro and the GFS.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781918992982302720




Interesting tweet from Ryan Maue about the Euro 12z run.

[gatorcane]

12Z NASA model, slowing and intensifying as it approaching South Florida at hour 120:

[SFLcane]

Euro control....

[KWT]

Woah that 12z ECM control run certainly does raise eyebrows, strong hurricane heading right into S.Florida...mind you hard to believe that this run is still 9 days away!

[gatorcane]

Can somebody explain what the ECMWF control run is? How does it differ from the ECMWF operational and the EPS?

[PTrackerLA]

Euro control run can have some wild solutions, can someone explain it as well?