ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2001 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:03 pm

from the radar on the plane.. very impressive

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-3-.kmz
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2002 Postby znel52 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:05 pm

Dropsonde measured 120kt surface winds!

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... e&latest=1
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2003 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:06 pm

NHC's expectation of no strengthening over the next 72 hours has been thrown well out the window. Still boggles me that they didn't expect the intensity to increase at all this morning.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2004 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:07 pm

znel52 wrote:Dropsonde measured 120kt surface winds!

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... e&latest=1


more impressive is less than a 500 feet its 160mph..


which means we have a cat 4 already ..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2005 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:07 pm

Looks like the trough over the Eastern Gulf in association with the upper-level low over the Tennessee valley is not making any further progress to the southeast:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2006 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:07 pm

181 mph winds at the 899mb level.

:eek:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2007 Postby Exalt » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:07 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:NHC's expectation of no strengthening over the next 72 hours has been thrown well out the window. Still boggles me that they didn't expect the intensity to increase at all this morning.


They always play it conservative. They got Patricia wrong too, I wouldn't be surprised if this went a full blown Cat 5 by tomorrow afternoon/evening against their forecasts.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2008 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:08 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:NHC's expectation of no strengthening over the next 72 hours has been thrown well out the window. Still boggles me that they didn't expect the intensity to increase at all this morning.


I wouldn't blame them too much due to how tough it is to forecast the intensity in hurricanes. But the fact the computer models have consistently showed it stronger than they had it is odd. I'm guessing they had reasons not well explained for why they thought it wasn't going to really strengthen much further.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2009 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:09 pm

znel52 wrote:Dropsonde measured 120kt surface winds!

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... e&latest=1


That probably seals the Cat-4 upgrade!

Amazing strengthening from Matthew, I see no reason other than maybe slight land interaction to stop it from getting to a 5 based on what we've seen so far!

Also to be fair to the models, they did deepen this a decent amount in this area of the Cairbbean, so lets see if the weakening happens tomorrow like they predict.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2010 Postby baitism » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:09 pm

Visible is looking very impressive. I also expect this could make a run at cat5, especially considering the low shear, minimal dry air, and high SSTs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2011 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:09 pm

Even if the dropsonde is a bit high, a blend of that, the SFMR and flight level winds supports 115 kt.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2012 Postby centuryv58 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:09 pm

Exalt wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:NHC's expectation of no strengthening over the next 72 hours has been thrown well out the window. Still boggles me that they didn't expect the intensity to increase at all this morning.


They always play it conservative. They got Patricia wrong too, I wouldn't be surprised if this went a full blown Cat 5 by tomorrow afternoon/evening against their forecasts.


I don't know if its that they get it wrong, OR the downside of getting too aggressive is a greater fear.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2013 Postby otterlyspicey » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:10 pm

Matthew looks incredible on satellite. Wow! :eek: There is no way this isn't Cat 4 by 5pm. It looks like he's still under RI and jogging more westward now. That eye and shape of overall storm is becoming classic. I am becoming very very concerned for Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2014 Postby znel52 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:12 pm

This could be the one to break the Cat 5 drought. This thing is bombing.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2015 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:12 pm

looks like it is steadily heading west, how far west before the much anticipated turn will this thing get is the question?
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2016 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:13 pm

znel52 wrote:This could be the one to break the Cat 5 drought. This thing is bombing.


Dean and Felix would be proud. Wow.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2017 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:looks like it is steadily heading west, how far west before the much anticipated turn will this thing get is the question?

all the recon passes still show wsw.. has not changed.. no wobble watching :P
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2018 Postby MGC » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:14 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:181 mph winds at the 899mb level.

:eek:


I'd say that is pretty impressive for a TC with 20KTS of analyzed shear over it. I hate storms that drop to the south of west and intensify. So much for hurricanes that can't intensify off the coast of South America. This storm is breaking all the rules. Keep an eye on the eye and how fast it contracts. Cat-4 looks like a good bet. Hopefully an EWRC will happen before landfall. Impressive hurricane I must say......MGC
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2019 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:14 pm

Exalt wrote:Considering the extremely favorable conditions, immense slowdown, quick RI, and the significant amount of time that Matthew has in the Atlantic, could the first Cat 5 we've had in 9 years be in immediate reach? This could easily bomb out to a Cat 4 tonight, and it's forecasted to stay over water for another day or two, so it has the time considering it's current rate of intensification imo.

If an eyewall replacement cycle doesn't occur, I would think it's not out of the question. But it would not be good for Jamaica. :eek:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2020 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:15 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
znel52 wrote:This could be the one to break the Cat 5 drought. This thing is bombing.


Dean and Felix would be proud. Wow.

Image


And around the same area Felix was as well.
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