ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Another thing of note, we've only had 2 category 4 storms since 2011. So even that in itself is a rarity. Let alone if it gets to cat 5 or not.

Not to mention this would be the first Cat 4 in September since 2011 if it can strengthen a bit more by the end of the day.

(As an aside, what's your avatar from?)

Yep cat-4s have'n t been that common recently, looks like this will 100% join that small list, will it make it to become the first cat-5 in 9 years?

[JaxGator]

Seems like Matthew has had enough of this cat 5 drought in the Atlantic. I don't think anybody expected this thing to blow up THIS FAST. I know I didn't.

Never say never when it comes to the weather and tropics. Oh crap, this really blew up while I was gone...for half an hour..

[HurricaneBelle]

It's officially an S2K major hurricane thread now that we've had our first mention of a suspected eyewall replacement cycle.

Only thing that will make it complete is for someone to speculate it's going annular.

[Hammy]

Seems like Matthew has had enough of this cat 5 drought in the Atlantic. I don't think anybody expected this thing to blow up THIS FAST. I know I didn't.

I was honestly expecting, at most, a Cat 1 at the moment, if not having weakened below that. But like they say, hurricanes can create their own environment and it appears that's exactly what it's done.

[gatorcane]

I wonder if this unexpected RI so soon is going to do to the 18Z and 00Z models when they are initialized with a much deeper system? Any RI potential was supposed to happen further west once it was starting the NW turn...

[Michele B]

New eyewall hot tower firing off.
Looks like this will continue to intensify into the night.

This thing is just boiling up!

Anybody know the SST's out there?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

947.8 mb
(~ 27.99 inHg)

[Aric Dunn]

per recon still heading WSW. yet another southward adjustment coming from the NHC..

[psyclone]

Recent model trends have been....eyebrow raising...really interested to see the 5 pm track. I would think it would be at least a bit more to the west. What a ferocious hurricane. Florida folks should not just look at the track but the wind probability products (and advisory to advisory trends) to get an idea of the risk in their regions. Good luck to all, especially our Caribbean friends who are first to deal with this monster.

[TimeZone]

It's officially an S2K major hurricane thread now that we've had our first mention of a suspected eyewall replacement cycle.

Only thing that will make it complete is for someone to speculate it's going annular.

That already happened yesterday.

[tgenius]

per recon still heading WSW. yet another southward adjustment coming from the NHC..

Aric, you thinking a west shift at 5pm? I'm watching from afar in SFL, but we shall see what comes of it.

[JaxGator]

:eek:

947.8 mb
(~ 27.99 inHg)

Wow... that's incredible and not to mention 121-125 kt (135-140 mph) winds! Btw, are you by chance CyberTeddy from Jeff Master's Wunder Blog? You have the same avatar as him. I lurk there sometimes.

[NWFL56]

The eye is beginning to break off-white as of 1915Z.

Not sure what you mean..could you explain? Also, are there multiple vortices/eyewalls here? Not sure what I am seeing in this graphic. Would appreciate any help.

[znel52]

The last frame of this loop is stunning right now!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Ntxw]

Yeah it would definitely be a cat 4 when the eye works itself out and warms a little more which is well on it's way. It's been so long since we've seen a monster south of 15N. It's very much of quality up there with the EPAC and WPAC big storms

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 13:27:36 N Lon : 71:21:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 953.9mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.1 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -26.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Michele B]

Another thing of note, we've only had 2 category 4 storms since 2011. So even that in itself is a rarity. Let alone if it gets to cat 5 or not.

Not to mention this would be the first Cat 4 in September since 2011 if it can strengthen a bit more by the end of the day.

(As an aside, what's your avatar from?)

Also considering it traversed the ENTIRE Atlantic Ocean!

He's a fighter, for sure.
Yep cat-4s have'n t been that common recently, looks like this will 100% join that small list, will it make it to become the first cat-5 in 9 years?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:eek:

947.8 mb
(~ 27.99 inHg)

Wow... that's incredible and not to mention 121-125 kt (135-140 mph) winds! Btw, are you by chance CyberTeddy from Jeff Master's Wunder Blog? You have the same avatar has him. I lurk there sometimes.

Yes.

[KWT]

The last frame of this loop is stunning right now!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Getting closer to textbook looking now I think it is fair to say!

[miamijaaz]

With all the talk about future tracks, no one has really said anything about the impacts on Colombia. Looks like the northern coast is taking quite a beating from TS winds (at least) and wave action.

[JaxGator]

:eek:

947.8 mb
(~ 27.99 inHg)

Wow... that's incredible and not to mention 121-125 kt (135-140 mph) winds! Btw, are you by chance CyberTeddy from Jeff Master's Wunder Blog? You have the same avatar has him. I lurk there sometimes.

Yes.

*as. Cool, it's good to have you on here.