ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3501 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:39 pm

Just north of NW motion between 30-36hrs, broadly the same thus far as the 12z, as you'd kind of expect at this stage!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3502 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:43 pm

42 hrs... Slightly SW of 12z...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3503 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:44 pm

GFS has Matthew stair-stepping NNW/NW- wobbles WNW and then due north, true motion probably something like 320-330.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3504 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:44 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3505 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:45 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET:

Image


:eek:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3506 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:46 pm

Trend. Note strengthening ridge to the NE of the storm.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3507 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:48 pm

chaser1 wrote::uarrow: So, a variable "average" solution that should not be discounted yet one which nonetheless ignores the basis for the divergent solution that the individual EURO members contribute; each weighted uniquely for those parameters that define each of them, right?

please write out an equation for that, lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3508 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:49 pm

Starting to rapidly deepen again on the 18z by 60hrs as it heads NW, down to 960mbs (in truth, that maybe too high based on current trends).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3509 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:49 pm

Looks like the 18z GFS maintains Matthew's intensity as opposed to weakening it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3510 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:49 pm

GFS continues to strengthen storm all the way up.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3511 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:50 pm

Same position as previous run, but stronger.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3512 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:51 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Looks like the 18z GFS maintains Matthew's intensity as opposed to weakening it.


Slight weakening at times but the overall gist is it sticks similar to where it is now. Outside of EWRC that seems reasonable enough once it does find its 'bottom'
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3513 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:51 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3514 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:52 pm

Looks like slightly more ridging on the 18Z GFS
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3515 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:52 pm

Poor Jamaica!!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3516 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like slightly more ridging on the 18Z GFS


Slightly more, though that maybe balanced out by a stronger Matthew feeling the upper trough slightly more.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3517 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:53 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Poor Jamaica!!!!


Eastern part of the island really is smashed on this run, as they have been. Lets hope for another dance around!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3518 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:55 pm

78 hours, same position as previous run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3519 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:56 pm

78 hrs... A hair slower on 18z and same location as 12z... Much stronger on 18z...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3520 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:59 pm

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