ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Amazing imagery, thanks for sharing.

[1900hurricane]

Eye temp has broken positive.

[Evil Jeremy]

For those not following in the models thread, the GFS just took another leap towards Florida. In fact, this has been the trend of the GFS over the past three runs:

[OntarioEggplant]

I would not be surprised if during the diurnal max that a solid core of exceptionally cold cloud tape fully encircles the eye.

[TimeZone]

I would not be surprised if during the diurnal max that a solid core of exceptionally cold cloud tape fully encircles the eye.

D-min and D-max have very minimal effects on storms as intense as this.

[ozonepete]

Blacks starting to wrap around the eye on AVN. I think I may have been the first to make the Felix comparison last night?

Clearly an eyewall replacement is under way. Outer eyewall enclosing a shrinking pinhole eye. This will temporarily stop intensification but after it completes watch out...

[MaineWeatherNut]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/avn0-lalo.gif

Blacks starting to wrap around the eye on AVN. I think I may have been the first to make the Felix comparison last night?

Clearly an eyewall replacement is under way. Outer eyewall enclosing a shrinking pinhole eye. This will temporarily stop intensification but after it completes watch out...

How can there already be an ERC when the eye JUST became completely visible really. I think it's just getting going.

[TimeZone]

EWRC already? Maybe if Jamaica is lucky we'll have another this thing will Hurricane Bill itself.

[MaineWeatherNut]

AF Recon is at Matthew preping for it's first pass... Let's find out how much more Matthew has intensified since the NOAA flight left!

[1900hurricane]

I doubt eyewall replacement has begun. Nothing from any of the recent microwave passes or any of the data from the recent recon mission even hinted at one about to begin.

[cycloneye]

Another must see video.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781984919685914624

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/avn0-lalo.gif

Blacks starting to wrap around the eye on AVN. I think I may have been the first to make the Felix comparison last night?

Clearly an eyewall replacement is under way. Outer eyewall enclosing a shrinking pinhole eye. This will temporarily stop intensification but after it completes watch out...

I tink its a little to quick for an ERC. the last radar from the previous recon showed nothing at all indicating one. no outer wind max in the data either. we just have a contracting intensifying TC>

[Raebie]

I doubt eyewall replacement has begun. Nothing from any of the recent microwave passes or any of the data from the recent recon mission even hinted at one about to begin.

I think it has. Poor Jamaica.

[ozonepete]

Blacks starting to wrap around the eye on AVN. I think I may have been the first to make the Felix comparison last night?

Clearly an eyewall replacement is under way. Outer eyewall enclosing a shrinking pinhole eye. This will temporarily stop intensification but after it completes watch out...

How can there already be an ERC when the eye JUST became completely visible really. I think it's just getting going.

Because it just finished an incredibly fast RI that had it as a cat 2 this morning with the eye just becoming visible to going all the way up to a cat 4 by 5PM. ERCs usually don't occur until the TC is at cat 4 or 5 so as a cat 4 right now this is actually more than ready to do one. I could be wrong but after watching hurricanes for over 3 decades I'm pretty sure I see an ERC starting.

[Hurrilurker]

I know someone flying into Kingston tomorrow and staying until Tuesday. What kind of impacts will they experience there most likely (obviously it depends on the track)?

If they're smart, they will cancel that trip. Kingston looks like it's going to get hammered, you don't want to be anywhere near there a few days from now! Even if they make it through the storm OK (at the very least, they probably won't have electricity for a while), the airport and flights north (back to the States) are likely to be jacked up for a while and there's a good chance of getting stranded there.

[OntarioEggplant]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/avn0-lalo.gif

Blacks starting to wrap around the eye on AVN. I think I may have been the first to make the Felix comparison last night?

Clearly an eyewall replacement is under way. Outer eyewall enclosing a shrinking pinhole eye. This will temporarily stop intensification but after it completes watch out...

There has to be an outer eyewall to replace it with. Outer eye walls choke off the vorticity and inflow to the inner eyewall which collapses and dies. Recon has yet to show evidence of an outer eyewall forming.

[1900hurricane]

Cloud tops are already responding to the sun going down.

[OntarioEggplant]

I would not be surprised if during the diurnal max that a solid core of exceptionally cold cloud tape fully encircles the eye.

D-min and D-max have very minimal effects on storms as intense as this.

This is not true. There is clear waxing and waning of cloud top temperatures during such periods.

[CrazyC83]

Cloud tops are already responding to the sun going down.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 302215.jpg

That looks like a T7.0 on the Dvorak scale to me.

[NotoSans]

Cloud tops are already responding to the sun going down.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 302215.jpg

That looks like a T7.0 on the Dvorak scale to me.

I would go with a T6.5 right now, but I won't be surprised if the next recon pass finds a borderline cat 5.