ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

Yeah I agree on the T7.0 assessment. He's definitely upper end echelon Cat 4 at the very least.

[TimeZone]

I would guess we've got an upper-end cat 4 right now. Guessing winds are now near 150 MPH based on the improved presentation.

[ozonepete]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/avn0-lalo.gif

Blacks starting to wrap around the eye on AVN. I think I may have been the first to make the Felix comparison last night?

Clearly an eyewall replacement is under way. Outer eyewall enclosing a shrinking pinhole eye. This will temporarily stop intensification but after it completes watch out...

There has to be an outer eyewall to replace it with. Outer eye walls choke off the vorticity and inflow to the inner eyewall which collapses and dies. Recon has yet to show evidence of an outer eyewall forming.

I appreciate what you said there but I know exactly how ERCs start and complete. You're looking at it on the satellite. It's just starting. The thunderstorm tops show the outer ring forming before recon can measure the response in the winds picking up there. We will see...

[abajan]

It's somewhat disconcerting to listen to Power 106 and hear that many Jamaicans don't believe Matthew will hit the island. Some are saying that the last time they prepared for a hurricane, nothing happened. To be honest, this is a common issue throughout the entire hurricane belt. We have lots of people in Barbados who think like that whenever a storm is approaching. Although, this time around, there seemed to be fewer in number, probably due to our Tomas encounter just six years ago.

[Kazmit]

I'll be staying up tonight, that's for sure. The only thing that can stop Matthew from reaching Cat 5 intensity is if it undergoes an ERC. That's quite possible, but afterwards it also has a chance. not looking good for Jamaica at all.

[Blizzard96x]

I'll be staying up tonight, that's for sure. The only thing that can stop Matthew from reaching Cat 5 intensity is if it undergoes an ERC. That's quite possible, but afterwards it also has a chance. not looking good for Jamaica at all.

I don't think the "only thing" would be ERC... Looks like Matthew is already running into some dry air.. thunderstorms collapsing on its northwestern fringe (notice last frame).. and since its such a small cyclone it may easily weaken if any of it becomes entrenched in its eye...

I still see it as a major hurricane approachign Jamaica though.

[Exalt]

Clearly an eyewall replacement is under way. Outer eyewall enclosing a shrinking pinhole eye. This will temporarily stop intensification but after it completes watch out...

How can there already be an ERC when the eye JUST became completely visible really. I think it's just getting going.

Because it just finished an incredibly fast RI that had it as a cat 2 this morning with the eye just becoming visible to going all the way up to a cat 4 by 5PM. ERCs usually don't occur until the TC is at cat 4 or 5 so as a cat 4 right now this is actually more than ready to do one. I could be wrong but after watching hurricanes for over 3 decades I'm pretty sure I see an ERC starting.

I highly doubt it, radar nor microwaves have suggested anything related to, all you're doing is basing it off the fact that it's rapidly intensifying. Several hurricanes have held out till Cat 5 before undergoing ERC, or don't go through one at all, the most recent being Patricia or Cyclone Winston.

[La Sirena]

I'll be staying up tonight, that's for sure. The only thing that can stop Matthew from reaching Cat 5 intensity is if it undergoes an ERC. That's quite possible, but afterwards it also has a chance. not looking good for Jamaica at all.

I don't think the "only thing" would be ERC... Looks like Matthew is already running into some dry air.. thunderstorms collapsing on its northwestern fringe (notice last frame).. and since its such a small cyclone it may easily weaken if any of it becomes entrenched in its eye...

I still see it as a major hurricane approachign Jamaica though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It's not really a small cyclone....

[NotoSans]

Looks like 125 to 130 knots based on the latest recon pass.

[ronyan]

150 mph likely

[MaineWeatherNut]

133kts

225730 1336N 07154W 6982 02808 9691 +090 +089 059128 133 /// /// 03

At least 941mb pressure maybe slightly lower...

230200 1329N 07150W 6978 02652 9411 +190 +137 076010 015 024 000 03

[CrazyC83]

Based on that data, I would probably go 125 kt for now. The SFMR was in very heavy rain.

[Exalt]

I'll be staying up tonight, that's for sure. The only thing that can stop Matthew from reaching Cat 5 intensity is if it undergoes an ERC. That's quite possible, but afterwards it also has a chance. not looking good for Jamaica at all.

I don't think the "only thing" would be ERC... Looks like Matthew is already running into some dry air.. thunderstorms collapsing on its northwestern fringe (notice last frame).. and since its such a small cyclone it may easily weaken if any of it becomes entrenched in its eye...

I still see it as a major hurricane approachign Jamaica though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I think you're thinking too hard about it. Matthew is not a small cyclone at all, a pretty sizable cyclone in fact. Also, I can't see what you're talking about when it comes to weakening; yes, a small line of thunderstorms diminishes, yet the convection gets much stronger, especially in the last frame. All it is doing in that satellite is intensifying, as you can see the black ring of thunderstorms completely begins to wrap and close around within the CDO.

Matthew is also in an extremely moist environment that is immensely conducive, with high SSTs and low shear, nothing can really stop it now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF303 first pass peak SFMR. Wow...

132 knots
(~ 151.9 mph)

[KWT]

133kts

225730 1336N 07154W 6982 02808 9691 +090 +089 059128 133 /// /// 03

At least 941mb pressure maybe slightly lower...

230200 1329N 07150W 6978 02652 9411 +190 +137 076010 015 024 000 03

Sounds about right to me, 125kts sounds reasonable, though the eyewall isn't quite perfect still.

I think its going to have to totally close the eyewall up for this to get into the 5 range, still not quite there yet, As we move into the overnight hours, that may well come.

[1900hurricane]

The flight level to SFMR ratio appears to remain very close to 1:1.

[KWT]

It's somewhat disconcerting to listen to Power 106 and hear that many Jamaicans don't believe Matthew will hit the island. Some are saying that the last time they prepared for a hurricane, nothing happened. To be honest, this is a common issue throughout the entire hurricane belt. We have lots of people in Barbados who think like that whenever a storm is approaching. Although, this time around, there seemed to be fewer in number, probably due to our Tomas encounter just six years ago.

I feel the best hope is this system jots just to the east of the island, probably won't totally spare the far east of the island. If its a direct hit as a major hurricane, then obviously it will be a disaster.

[tolakram]

ir loops. In my opinion it's still strengthening.

b&w
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

color
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[Exalt]

ir loops. In my opinion it's still strengthening.

b&w
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

color
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

That eye is giving me bad feelings about what is ahead for Jamaica/Cuba. Grade A pinhole eye, looks like it could make the run for Cat 5 tonight.

[Yellow Evan]

Clear as a day T6.5.