ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2281 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:16 pm

143 SFMR supports 140, but it might be suspect.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2282 Postby OntarioEggplant » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:16 pm

143 KT SFMR NW Quad....
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2283 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2284 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:16 pm

138kts and 941.8mb pressure this pass...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2285 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:16 pm

I think we now have a Cat 5.

143 kt SFMR reading just recorded - although the flight level winds are still below 140. At the very least 135 kt.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2286 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:17 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:143 KT SFMR NW Quad....


138kt is 159 mph, with low rain rate, so that should be enough.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2287 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:18 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
tatertawt24 wrote:I wonder what the chances are--if recon does miss the peak intensity--that it gets upgraded post-season, ala Emily. I say that because I don't remember that being done in quite some time.

If it warrants it, NHC will do it. They extrapolated an 872 mb pressure between recon missions with Patricia in the postseason just last year.


...Well I guess I don't have to worry about it anymore! :D
Last edited by tatertawt24 on Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2288 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:18 pm

!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2289 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:19 pm

The only concern might be that the pressure - about 941mb - is quite high for a Cat 5.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2290 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:19 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:I wonder what the chances are--if recon does miss the peak intensity--that it gets upgraded post-season, ala Emily. I say that because I don't remember that being done in quite some time.

I hope we do get recon in there, just to increase the chances that it reaches Cat 5, and also to more accurately measure the intensity. Regardless, I think this is just about there anyway.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2291 Postby Nate-Gillson » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:19 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)


Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close). :P

PS: I see a special advisory coming.
Last edited by Nate-Gillson on Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2292 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:19 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)

This is absolutely insane this rate of intensification! Praying for Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2293 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Can't help but to wonder if there's something about the topography of the coast of Venezuela that causes hurricanes in the area of 70-74W and 13-14N to deepen 50-60 knots in 24 hours. Felix's intensification in 2007 was also equally as baffling. Remember, Matthew was a sheared TS yesterday morning and now it's nearly a Cat 5.


Not sure about the topography of Venezuela but that it developed a small inner core close to S.A. like Felix did staying away from the strong low level diverging winds closer to Hispaniola, is what I am thinking why they both gained so much strength in such a short time in the same general area.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2294 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 13:24:31 N Lon : 71:43:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 945.0mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -76.3C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2295 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm

No change in 8PM cone except for M replacing H pre Cuba
Last edited by toad strangler on Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2296 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm

Still moving WSW
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2297 Postby NotoSans » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm

Flight-level to SFMR winds ratio remains very close to 1:1, which is typical for storms undergoing RI.
NHC may go with either 135 or 140 kt, but I would still like to see higher flight-level winds before calling Matthew a Cat 5.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2298 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:21 pm

Nate-Gillson wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)


Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close). :P


You just never know. If we had continuous Recon in Patricia, who knows what we would have found as it was on its way up. But there is no indication the CDG is going to wrap all the way around (something I have never seen in the Atlantic).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2299 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:21 pm

Nate-Gillson wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)


Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close). :P

PS: I see a special advisory coming.


I don't think they would issue a Special this late in the game. Most likely just a Tropical Cyclone Update and then update the intensities at 11.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2300 Postby Nate-Gillson » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Nate-Gillson wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:!!!!!

SFMR:

143 knots
(~ 164.6 mph)


Matthew is just EXPLODING!!! However, there is NOOOOO WAY it's going to pull a Patricia (not even close). :P


You just never know. If we had continuous Recon in Patricia, who knows what we would have found as it was on its way up. But there is no indication the CDG is going to wrap all the way around (something I have never seen in the Atlantic).


Silly question, but what does CDG stand for?
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