ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3761 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:03 pm

Hours 102 to 114 will be very telling...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3762 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:05 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3763 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:05 pm

NW @ 102
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3764 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:06 pm

Looks like the high over NE is further east, but I'm sure the end result will be the same...Florida still on edge lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3765 Postby TimeZone » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:07 pm

Further E this run. Could this be the end of the W trend?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3766 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:07 pm

So far just slower, no significant track change.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3767 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:07 pm

Location at Hour 108 on 0Z is the same as Hour 108 on 18Z...so GFS is just 6 hours slower.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3768 Postby psyclone » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:08 pm

stephen23 wrote:Slower not good with this one. Faster with the trough, slower with the storm is bad news. Last run showed a deep trough that dug down over Texas. I said then this would be horrible if the storm slowed down a day late and the trough was a day faster. It would cause this beast to cut into the Gulf. Then we can all speculate in those hot waters where we go. This must be the reason why I have already been put on standby by 5 different insurance companies. They tend to get the news much faster then the rest of us


there is no indication of a gulf threat and there hasn't been for days. actually overall there's been decent consistency...and that has certainly been the case with the official NHC products.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3769 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:08 pm

A bit slower and a smidge E.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3770 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:08 pm

tolakram wrote:So far just slower, no significant track change.

Pretty much this.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3771 Postby AJC3 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:08 pm

toad strangler wrote:NW @ 102


Nah. Still moving NNW.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3772 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:08 pm

The front over the northern plains is not making any progress east. If anything it starts to lift to the north.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3773 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Oh jeez...that's a bit more W than just NW lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3774 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:09 pm

Stronger ridging to its north at h108, slowing it down even further, but track is still very similar to 18z, maybe just 20 miles more east through that time.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3775 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:09 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3776 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:09 pm

114 hrs is right over Abaco island
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3777 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:09 pm

Continues on that Nw movement through 114hr. 120 is when we'll see if there's a difference or not.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3778 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:10 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:The front over the northern plains is not making any progress east. If anything it starts to lift to the north.


Totally agree...if this trends another model run or two, GFS will be showing an Central Florida landfall before turning OTS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3779 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:10 pm

AJC3 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:NW @ 102


Nah. Still moving NNW.


Between 96 and 102 it was more NW. But I guess this is splitting hairs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3780 Postby AJC3 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:10 pm

H108 to H114....now THAT is a NW wobble right there.
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