ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Looks Like Matthew might just want take a ride along I-95 or even the new bike path that is getting built from Miami to Portland, Me. This could cause catastrophic damage and deaths and become the most deadly and costly storm in history.

costly maybe but not the deadliest

[NDG]

I was just looking at the Model's position error, one of the ones that have been the worst so far on Matthew's forecast track is the HWRF, it has been right biased all along, with 72 forecast track by as much as 150 miles and its 5 day track as much as off as 300+ miles.

[AJC3]

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EC does a stall @222 hours, does a shift to the SSW, suggesting the hurricane encounters a different steering environment @ 222hrs.

We'll see if it holds serve on its 00Z run.

[Blinhart]

There is only one model showing this system going over the tip of Nicaragua and Honduras then into Belize then going over the Yucatan, and that is the CLP5, I know that is one of the worse models to look at, but you never know what might happen.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_14.gif

[WeatherEmperor]

I was just looking at the Model's position error, one of the ones that have been the worst so far on Matthew's forecast track is the HWRF, it has been right biased all along, with 72 forecast track by as much as 150 miles and its 5 day track as much as off as 300+ miles.

LoL I am so glad you posted this cause I was just about to post the 0z Hwrf is shifting east a bit compared to 18z. This while the Gfs shifted slightly west...


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[psyclone]

It was along the coast at Jensen Beach. We are parsing words here.
Suffice to say; my point is that the model run doesn't even show Matthew at the coast.

Not sure what you are looking at. It seems to be dragging along a great deal of coastline.

Probably 70-100 miles offshore.
Close enough for certain TS conditions, seemingly not Hurricane conditions.
At least on this run.....

In addition, the NHC track is well east of this run...so what you really want to look for is them validating this solution by shifting their track to the west. As of the 11 pm advisory the ts wind probs remained very low over fl (10% or less) and the 50kt and hurricane force probs didn't register at all. If those numbers start moving up...that would be telling.

[meriland23]

Looks Like Matthew might just want take a ride along I-95 or even the new bike path that is getting built from Miami to Portland, Me. This could cause catastrophic damage and deaths and become the most deadly and costly storm in history.

costly maybe but not the deadliest

You can bet that if it rides up the EC it would be one of the deadliest in history. People neglect mandatory evacuations a lot, assuming they'll ride it out, etc. Ntm the amount of people it'd effect, the flooding, the damage, the chaos.. it'd make Katrina look weak in comparison. I'm not saying this to deduce from Katrina, but this would be one of the worst case scenarios you can imagine in terms of natural disasters.

[Gladstone]

It's been quite a few years since I last posted (six I believe), and now I'm here again ... so hello everyone.

After seeing someone mention the tides, I checked up on that and see we'll be at low astronomical tide when Matthew nears/hits the East Coast. The new moon is 10/1 and the full moon will be on the 15th. This will be a big help should flooding occur.

[NYR__1994]

I was just looking at the Model's position error, one of the ones that have been the worst so far on Matthew's forecast track is the HWRF, it has been right biased all along, with 72 forecast track by as much as 150 miles and its 5 day track as much as off as 300+ miles.

And which models have performed the best so far?

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Looks Like Matthew might just want take a ride along I-95 or even the new bike path that is getting built from Miami to Portland, Me. This could cause catastrophic damage and deaths and become the most deadly and costly storm in history.

i dont think this would cause a huge US deathtoll and honestly i dont think we will see a large death toll stateside for a long time if ever because of the lessons (hopefully) learned with katrina

[Blinhart]

Looks Like Matthew might just want take a ride along I-95 or even the new bike path that is getting built from Miami to Portland, Me. This could cause catastrophic damage and deaths and become the most deadly and costly storm in history.

costly maybe but not the deadliest

You can bet that if it rides up the EC it would be one of the deadliest in history. People neglect mandatory evacuations a lot, assuming they'll ride it out, etc. Ntm the amount of people it'd effect, the flooding, the damage, the chaos.. it'd make Katrina look weak in comparison. I'm not saying this to deduce from Katrina, but this would be one of the worst case scenarios you can imagine in terms of natural disasters.

Also you got to remember if this system does come into Miami say Monday night, Tuesday morning, that gives less than 4 days for them to get everything situated and start doing evacuations, which would cause massive transit delays and people might get caught in this system with out any shelter. You also got to remember Flash Flooding associated with a Tropical System is part of the total numbers, so just because you are in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, or any other inner state that might get rain and wind from this system, all that damage and death would be included in the totals. This system could effect almost 1/4th to 1/3rd of the population of the USA, so that is a super major storm

[Bocadude85]

Not sure what you are looking at. It seems to be dragging along a great deal of coastline.

Probably 70-100 miles offshore.
Close enough for certain TS conditions, seemingly not Hurricane conditions.
At least on this run.....

In addition, the NHC track is well east of this run...so what you really want to look for is them validating this solution by shifting their track to the west. As of the 11 pm advisory the ts wind probs remained very low over fl (10% or less) and the 50kt and hurricane force probs didn't register at all. If those numbers start moving up...that would be telling.

I see 10-20% with 20-30% just offshore..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025906.shtml?tswind120#contents

[adam0983]

If king Euro goes west towards Florida at 2am I will say let the games continue.

[hurricaneCW]

Best to remain cautious as there's plenty of uncertainty left. Personally I'm curious about the capture scenario that sends him up the coast. The current typhoon expected to recurve often indicates a strong trough in the east, which is what you'd need to phase in Matthew. Interesting that even the CMC showed this happening despite sending him well east only to come back and hit Maine.

But what will the Euro do, I can't discount it after nailing Joaquin when every other model was against it.

[AtlanticWind]

Has the ukmet run yet?

[sponger]

If king Euro goes west towards Florida at 2am I will say let the games continue.

Then it is game on!

[hurricanehunter69]

Looks Like Matthew might just want take a ride along I-95 or even the new bike path that is getting built from Miami to Portland, Me. This could cause catastrophic damage and deaths and become the most deadly and costly storm in history.

costly maybe but not the deadliest

You can bet that if it rides up the EC it would be one of the deadliest in history. People neglect mandatory evacuations a lot, assuming they'll ride it out, etc. Ntm the amount of people it'd effect, the flooding, the damage, the chaos.. it'd make Katrina look weak in comparison. I'm not saying this to deduce from Katrina, but this would be one of the worst case scenarios you can imagine in terms of natural disasters.

If you get a 150 mile wide hurricane shield and 33 foot storm surge; then you can compare to Katrina.....we'll see...nevertheless, my heart goes out to anyone who has to deal with it!

[northjaxpro]

Well, I would say it is safe to assume the next EURO run coming shortly here in the wee hours for us owls will be very.interesting to see uh? Will the west shift continue?

[psyclone]

Probably 70-100 miles offshore.
Close enough for certain TS conditions, seemingly not Hurricane conditions.
At least on this run.....

In addition, the NHC track is well east of this run...so what you really want to look for is them validating this solution by shifting their track to the west. As of the 11 pm advisory the ts wind probs remained very low over fl (10% or less) and the 50kt and hurricane force probs didn't register at all. If those numbers start moving up...that would be telling.

I see 10-20% with 20-30% just offshore..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025906.shtml?tswind120#contents

unless I'm misinterpreting the numbers the first zone is 5%. at any rate it's low. and that's not for high impact winds. it's the stuff of gale warnings in a mid latitude environment. Stuff the great lakes gets twice a week in the fall. the bottom line is the track must move quite a bit to the west for the east coast of florida to get substantial weather...but in fairness there's time for that to happen...or not.

[Hurricaneman]

I see a couple of GFS ensembles going west of Jamaica, but it seems that most of the members go over Jamaica